Veros Predicts Prices Will Appreciate in 75% of Markets

3/25/2013 – Tony Barringer – Veros. a leader in enterprise risk management, collateral valuation services, and predictive analytics, released Monday its VeroFORECAST update for the next 12 months, predicting price appreciation in 75 percent of markets.

The market forecast is updated quarterly and covers 955 counties, 316 metro areas, and 13,460 zip codes. The most recent report covers the 12-month period ending March 1, 2014.

Veros’ future home price index (HPI) forecast projects significant strengthening and improvement across most markets. On average, Veros expects 2.2 percent price appreciation over the next year. This is the third consecutive quarter in which the index has shown forecast appreciation.

As of the March update, 75 percent of U.S. markets are expected to see appreciation, while the remaining 25 percent are expected to experience declining home prices.

“What we’re seeing from here is that the recovery in the housing market is forecast to continue to accelerate and do so quite significantly in comparison to the previous quarter,” said Eric Fox, VP of statistical and economic modeling for Veros. “Now we are finally over the hump, with appreciation being the forecast norm and with fewer markets forecast to show signs of weakness. The number of ‘weak’ markets is now consistent with what we would consider to be a healthy and recovering market.”

In terms of expected appreciation, four of the top five markets are located in the West, with three located in California. The Los Angeles area ranked No. 1 with expected appreciation of 11.8 percent. It was followed by San Francisco (11.3 percent); Phoenix, Arizona (10.8 percent); San Jose (10.5 percent); and Midland, Texas (9.9 percent).

California markets make up seven of the top 10 forecast strongest markets, Veros reported.

“This is the first time in a long time that California markets are forecast to do so well,” Fox said. “In each of the markets registering among our top 10, it is the combination of low supply, great historic affordability and low interest rates that are pushing these markets to VeroFORECAST’s top performing positions.”

The top weakest markets, meanwhile, include Atlantic City, New Jersey (-4.2 percent); Poughkeepsie, New York (-3.0 percent); Gulfport, Mississippi (-2.3 percent); Pascagoula, Mississippi (-2.2 percent); and Daytona Beach, Florida (-2.1 percent).

“Housing supply is a key differentiator between our top and bottom forecast performing markets,” Fox said. “The majority of the poor performing markets are primarily in the Northeast portion of the U.S. and we’re seeing pockets of the South that are forecast to be weak, especially Mississippi and Alabama.”

DCNews