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We hope our real estate news update finds you well. We regularly post the latest news, trends, graphs, commentary & excerpts from our client mailings. We now make them available to you, our visitors. January 27, 2012 December Existing-Home Sales Show Uptrend Washington, DC, January 20, 2012
Existing-home sales continued on an uptrend in December, rising for three consecutive months and remaining above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The latest monthly data shows total existing home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.39 million in November, and are 3.6 percent higher than the 4.45 million-unit level in December 2010. The estimates are based on completed transactions from multiple listing services that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. "The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery," he said. "Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market."
For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7 percent to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitmenrt for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to another record low of 3.96 percent in December from 3.99 percent in November; the rate was 4.71 percent in December 2010; recordkeeping began in 1971.
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. "The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves," he said. "More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services."
Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.
Available inventory has trended down since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, and is at the lowest level since March 2005 when there were 2.30 million homes on the market.
"The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future," Yun said.
Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 22 percent in December, up from 20 percent a year ago, while short sales closed 13 percent below market value compared with a 16 percent discount in December 2010.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,500 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010. Distressed homes - foreclosures and short sales - accounted for 32 percent of sales in December (19 percent were foreclosures and 13 percent were short sales), up from 29 percent in November; they were 36 percent in December 2010.
All-cash sales accounted for 31 percent of purchases in December, up from 28 percent in November and 29 percent in December 2010. Investors account for the bulk of cash transactions.
Investors purchased 21 percent of homes in December, up from 19 percent in November and 20 percent in December 2010. First-time buyers fell to 31 percent of transactions in December from 35 percent in November; they were 33 percent in December 2010.
Contract failures were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in December, unchanged from November; they were 9 percent in December 2010. Although closed sales are holding up better than this finding would suggest, contract cancellations are caused largely by declined mortgage applications and failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.
Single-family home sales increased 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million in December from 3.93 million in November, and are 4.3 percent higher than the 3.94 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $165,100 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010.
Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 500,000 in December from 460,000 in November but are 2.0 percent below the 510,000-unit level in December 2010. The median existing condo price was $160,000 in December, down 3.0 percent from a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 10.7 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in December and are 3.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $231,300, which is 2.7 percent below December 2010.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 8.3 percent in December to a level of 1.04 million and are 9.5 percent above December 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $129,100, down 7.9 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.9 percent to an annual level of 1.76 million in December and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $146,900, down 1.1 percent from December 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 2.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in December but are 0.8 percent below December 2010. The median price in the West was $205,200, up 0.3 percent from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Source: Walter Molony - National Association of Realtors
January 18, 2012 Home sales looking up
Experts are optimistic that Tampa Bay's housing market may have turned the corner.
The worst may be over for Tampa Bay's housing market.
The median price of a single family home fell to $110,000 in January 2011, climbed steadily to $130,000 in August and has not dropped below $120,000 since.
'It's a clear indication that we have felt the bottom of the market,' said Kevin Chadwick, a 30-year Realtor and owner of six Keller Williams offices with more than 400 agents in Tampa Bay. 'The market is in the process of turning.' Craig Beggins agreed.
'I believe the market is turning,' said Beggins, who owns Century 21 Beggins Enterprises in Apollo Beach, with more than 200 agents. 'This is what we have been waiting for.' Real estate experts and economists believe the figures point to rising prices and increased sales, basing their optimism on the following: The inventory of homes for sale has fallen to levels not seen for years. The lower the supply, the stronger the market. The area has less than a sixmonth supply of unsold homes, meaning it would take about six months to sell the houses currently on the market. By contrast, Hillsborough County's unsold inventory peaked at 25 months in January 2008.
Tampa Bay has added 36,900 jobs over the past year, and the state's unemployment rate continued a steady, yearlong retreat in 2011 by falling to 10 percent in November, reaching its lowest point in 2½ years.
Real estate professionals see more people inquiring about putting their homes on the market. The owners are not in distress, and their houses typically sell faster because the homes have not been neglected.
'It's opening a whole new category of buyers,' Chadwick said. 'These people have been on the sidelines for four years waiting to sell. This is exciting.' University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith said he is being a little more cautious in declaring that the housing market has turned the corner, adding, 'It's definitely a possibility, but I'd like to see six months of consecutive gains.' Gains in prices and sales are good news in a state decimated by foreclosures and falling values since the housing market imploded.
Sales of single-family homes jumped 19 percent - 1,943 in November to 2,315 in December - in Hillsborough, Pinellas and parts of Hernando and Pasco counties, according to My Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service data.
Although lenders tightened borrowing standards, some sales could be attributed to mortgage rates hovering at an all-time low of about 4 percent.
As the inventory of unsold homes continues to drop to levels not seen in more than five years, median prices also climbed last month for all types of sales: short sales, conventional sales and foreclosures.
From November to December, median prices on short sales rose from $99,250 to $105,000; conventional sales, from $155,000 to $157,000; and foreclosures, from $66,900 to $69,000.
The Times reported last month that short sales jumped more than 25 percent in the bay area as banks steered away from foreclosures that now take about 806 days to wind through Florida's court system.
Lenders, Snaith said, need to deplete their supply of distressed properties in order for a full recovery to occur. As short sales move more houses, the best of them will get more offers, forcing buyers to pay more.
Ultimately, the very definition of a recovered housing market is higher prices.
'I think banks have now embraced this in Florida,' Snaith said about short sales. 'This helps the healing process along.' Tony Polito, a housing consultant with Tampa's Metrostudy, a national company that tracks the construction industry, said starts on new homes in the bay area also jumped 19 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the same period in 2011. Closings rose 4 percent.
The low inventory and the job growth, Polito said, are the biggest reasons that the housing market is turning.
'We're right at the change point,' he said. 'There's a lot of positive signs that we're pushing further away from the bottom.' While at the bottom, the Sunshine State lost construction workers.
The jobs peaked at 94,800 in June 2006 - the height of the real estate market - and fell to a low point of 47,500 last October.
Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James in St. Petersburg, said home prices and sales should rise gradually, as long as the economy doesn't take on any major ripples.
'We have a long way to go before a full recovery, but we are on our way,' he said.
Experts had predicted in 2011 that a tsunami of houses from the 'shadow inventory'' would decimate the market. That inventory includes homes with mortgages 90 days late and nearing foreclosure or homes already seized by a lender but not yet listed for sale.
The shadow inventory no longer concerns some experts, as they believe the market can absorb the extra homes as banks release them for sale.
A healthy inventory supply is six months. The lower the supply, the stronger the market.
Hillsborough's housing supply peaked at 25 months in January 2008; Pinellas' at 18 months in March 2007. Overall, Hillsborough now has an inventory of 5.3 months for single-family homes. Pinellas is at 5.5 months.
Investors devoured lowerpriced properties in 2011 as soon as they hit the market. With the supply so low, they have to chase higher-priced homes, Beggins said.
He added, 'The sales prices have to go up.' Liane Jamason, an agent with Smith & Associates Real Estate, said potential buyers and sellers need to drown out that national chatter about the real estate market being in the doldrums.
'It's just not the case here from what I'm seeing,' she said. 'I'm having a harder time finding listings.'
Mark Puente - Tampa Bay Times
January 6, 2012 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
The Year We Bottomed!?!
In 2010, Pinellas county year-over-year home sales increased nine of the twelve months; the other three were basically unchanged. While there is still a long road to go, the trend is reversing. The same goes for employment, new home construction, and consumer confidence. Add to that the lowest mortgage interest rates since the 1950s and we can begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
X'ed fingers!
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
January 5, 2012 Good News in Home Sales NAR released its pending home sales index figure last week, and for the second month in a row, the index is up. What's more, the index has broken 100. That's significant because the only other time the index has hit 100 in recent years is when the home buyer tax credit was available. "It is the natural, organic power of great affordability conditions and job creation that is bringing the index level up," says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "This is a very encouraging sign."
Source: National Association of Realtors
January 4, 2012 Retirees could again lead Florida rebound WASHINGTON - Jan. 4, 2012 - While international buyers have been heralded as the leaders of a Florida real estate rebound, a recent Census Bureau report on migration trends indicates that U.S. residents from northern climates are once again heading to Florida for retirement.
Between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, Florida welcomed 256,000 new residents, or
roughly 560 new Floridians each day. Texas grew by 529,000 residents, and California
came in second with 438,000.
In total population, Florida retained its No. 4 status, but its 19.1 million residents moved
closer to bumping New York, with 19.5 million residents, from its No. 3 spot.
Florida ranked No. 3 for attracting new international residents, behind only California
and Texas. However, the Sunshine State ranked No. 2 in attracting residents from other
U.S. states. During the 15 months of the Census study, 119,000 moved to Florida from
other states, a number surpassed only by Texas' 145,000 new residents.
The state's growth according to the Census Bureau surpassed earlier estimates by the
University of Florida's Bureau of Economic & Business Research, and Sarasota's
Herald-Tribune dug a little deeper to find out why. They found that the UF study relies
mainly on new electric utility hookups to judge population growth, while the Census
Bureau relies largely on tax returns and Medicare data.
Since the Census Bureau numbers were roughly twice UF's figures, the Medicare data
may have made a difference - implying greater demand from retirees - said University of
Central Florida Economist Sean Snaith. "I think with the recovery of the wealth, at least through the rebound of the stock market, that has helped the flow of retirees resume,"
Snaith said.
Source: Herald-Tribune, Dec. 21, 2011, Doug Sword
©2012 Florida Realtors®
December 10, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
December 9, 2011 Residential Housing Ready to Awaken? Friday, 9 Dec 2011
After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound.
In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline.
This contrarian - and largely overlooked - thesis flies in the face of the persistent gloom that has nagged the industry since 2007, when the subprime crisis
flared.
Industry analysts and players cite a number of reasons - some traditional (employment), others unique to the post-credit bubble era (foreclosures) - for the long-awaited sea change. An analysis of industry and government data also support the forecast.
"It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next
year are beginning to fall into place," declared Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim in a recent note to investors.
Proponents admit that the nascent rebound could easily be derailed, but stress that after years of government efforts to support sales and prices as well as the volatile impact of foreclosures, the market has regained a measure of normalcy.
"With the exception of really hard-hit markets, the vast majority is ready to turn around," adds Jerry Howard, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, NAHB. "The Washington, D.C., area is not only ripe for recovery, they need to start building units."
The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund [ITB 11.90 0.26 (+2.23%) ], for example, is up some 38 percent, while the S&P 500 is up about 21 percent.
Nevertheless, skeptics overwhelmingly outnumber the optimists, given the false-starts of previous years, the economy's sub-par performance, a new wave of distressed properties and the capacity for the European debt crisis to spook business, consumers and investors.
"I think it's premature," says Richard Smith, CEO of Realogy, the nation's largest real estate company, whose brands include Century 21, Coldwell Banker and Sotheby's
International. "We see little indications here and there. Transaction volume is improving. Prices are still under pressure. This isn't going to be one of those spiked robust recoveries."
Smith is echoing the conventional industry calculus: that price increases follow sales growth amid consistently strengthening demand.
There's been little conventional, however, about this housing slump, which is one reason it's had so many false bottoms. Among its many firsts - housing starts fell through 1 million annual units, foreclosures topped 2 million in three consecutive years, and home prices declined on a national basis.
The catalysts to recovery are mostly the same: for potential buyers, residential rents have now risen enough to consider buying; existing-home inventory is the lowest in
five years, while that of new homes is at a 40-year low; affordability is at a record high; delinquencies have peaked; consumer confidence is on the rise ; and job growth is
accelerating.
For investors, with a continuation of the gold rally in question, real estate is beginning to look like a viable inflation hedge alternative, while rising rents mean greater profits.
That thinking may help explain why the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction
Index Fund [ITB 11.90 0.26 (+2.23%)] , a broad barometer for the housing market, is up some 38 percent from the stock market's October bottom, while the S&P 500 is up about 21 percent.
Finally, there's the intangible fatigue with bad news, and a desire to end the negative feedback loop.
"We believe there is sizable housing demand that could be released into the market," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, NAR.
The NAR is forecasting existing home sales will rise 5 percent in both 2012 and 2013;
prices will edge up 2 percent in each of those two years, then 4 percent in 2014.
The NAHB is forecasting a 5.1-percent increase in new home sales and a 10-percent
increase for new home starts in 2012.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
A turnaround in the housing market will require continued improvement in the job
market.
The economy has created jobs 13 months in a row for a total of almost 1.9 million.
Weekly jobless claims have been routinely below the key level of 400,000, and the
national jobless rate is down to 8.6 percent.
There are already signs in some markets that an improving employment picture is
boosting housing demand and sale prices.
In cities such as Tampa, Fla., South Bend, Ind., Grand Rapids, Mich., Raleigh, N.C.,
Wichita, Kan., and Green Bay, Wis., the median sales price of an existing single family
home increased 1-2 percent in the third quarter, during which time the jobless rate and/or payrolls growth improved dramatically.
Even in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. metropolitan area - considered the epicenter
of the foreclosure crisis a few years ago - prices were just 1.4 percent lower in the third quarter than the previous year.
A new index by the NAHB and First American, the Improving Markets Index, IMI,
launched in September, tracks housing markets throughout the country that are showing
signs of improving economic health. Thirty cities - including San Jose, Pittsburgh,
New Orleans and Winston-Salem, N.C. - are showing growth in permits, sales and
employment.
In San Diego - where in the last year the jobless rate has fallen from 10.4 percent to 9.7 percent and 24,000 jobs have been added - home inventory is down to two months; in some areas of San Francisco (9.4 vs. 10.3 percent), it is one month.
More broadly, 40 percent of all states showed existing home sale increases on both a
quarterly and annual basis in the third quarter, according to National Association of
Realtors data. That includes high foreclosure-rate states, such as California, Georgia,
Michigan and Utah. All but six states showed double-digit gains year over year.
Location, Location, Location
There's even a strong case to be made that the foreclosure crisis is easing.
"The pipeline of distressed property is plentiful but less Justin Sullivan | Getty Images than last year," when foreclosure activity hit a record 2.18 million, says Yun.
For the first nine months of 2011, foreclosure activity is down sharply from the same period last year (26.59 percent), whether it is the worst-off states - (Florida,
54.98 percent; California, 31.51 percent; Utah, 27.41 percent) - or better-off ones (New York, 46.57 percent; Mississippi, 33.25 percent; South Dakota, 26.59 percent), according to RealtyTrac, which tracks the data.
Third-quarter foreclosures (610,337) were up 1 percent from the previous quarter but
down 34 percent from the year-ago period.
The wild card right now is an impending wave of new foreclosed properties on the
market, following the removal of state moratoria and the settlement of state and federal
lawsuits with lenders and loan servicers.
It's unclear how many properties will hit the market, but conservative estimates put the number at over a million.
Still, of the top 20 markets in the new wave, nine are in California, five in Florida and two in Ohio, according RealtyTrac, so the impact will be fairly concentrated.
Another question is whether that wave will be a tsunami or merely a breaker. If the
market is in fact recovering, why would banks want to weaken it again by deluging it
with cheap properties.
"You could see them trying to gauge the market like speculators," answers Howard.
Kim of Barclays is among those who say the threat is exaggerated, perhaps
misunderstood. He estimates that 40 percent of the foreclosed properties haven't had a
payment made on them in two years, which means they are in poor condition and thus
unattractive to many buyers.
"The deterioration has been great," he says. "It flies in the face of all the bearish
arguments."
Kim's thesis is that there are now two kinds of buyers in the market; those who'll
take a chance on a bargain-priced, distressed property and those who'll only make a
conventional transaction. He says it helps explain why the Core Logic data he used for
his latest report shows non-distressed prices flat or slightly higher in the past year.
"Even if the banks decide to move their inventory more aggressively, and I suspect they will, it's OK because the buyer is making a distinction," explains Kim.
"There's a ready appetite for it," adds Smith of Realogy, who agrees that there's
substantial pent-up demand for housing in general but also great uncertainty. "If you can relieve consumers of some of that uncertainty, then I can see a nice little recovery."
That's the psychological dimension of the wild card - the negative feedback loop that
has plagued housing.
Optimists say most of the uncertainty and fear is gone.
"The major driver of negative sentiment was that prices were going down across the
market by large amounts," says Kim of Barclays. "Buyers need to see a stabilization."
A contributing element to that is the unwinding of government intervention - whether
to artificially spur demand - as was the case with the first-time buyer tax incentive
program of 2009 and 2010 - and/or to retard and prevent foreclosures.
Many regard those efforts as largely ineffective, if not counter-productive because they delayed the inevitable - a deep descent to a market bottom, which has finally been
touched.
"The numbers you're looking at you can trust," says Kim. "There are no exogenous
factors."
Though tight lending conditions and forthcoming regulations of the Dodd-Frank
legislation are still an issue for some, sweeping housing finance reform is off the agenda for at least the next year.
"You're back to the natural forces of the market," says Howard of the builders
association.
December 7, 2011 Fla Housing Market Bouncing Back Leading U. S. economists: Fla.'s housing market bouncing back
ORLANDO, Fla. - Dec. 7, 2011 - Despite national and global headwinds, Florida's real
estate market is entering 2012 on an upward trend, according to three leading U.S.
economists.
"Our state is in a mini-recovery," said Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. John
Tuccillo at the state association's 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference in
Orlando. "Sales are trending up, listing inventories are falling, the supply of lender-
related properties has stabilized, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in some
local markets."
In fact, Florida homes today may be undervalued, Tuccillo added. "That may seem like a drastic statement," he said. "But a buyer who plans to own the home for five to seven
years can get some great bargains today."
Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C., said the U.S. economy will continue to face significant challenges, particularly financial concerns related to the European debt crisis. But he expects the U.S. economic recovery will continue next year, making it easier for Midwesterners, for example, to buy Florida homes.
"Florida's economy is recovering, with tourism and healthcare leading the way," Vitner said. "International tourism has been particularly strong in Miami and Orlando."
Looking around the state, Vitner said Jacksonville's unemployment rate has dropped and home prices are stabilizing. In Orlando, prices have not yet reached bottom, he said, but the winter tourism season should help the regional economy. Tampa and Southwest Florida have seen solid job growth, with little new home construction.
South Florida's economy is growing thanks to trade relationships with Latin America and the Caribbean, while in the Panhandle, Fort Walton Beach is outperforming Panama City and Pensacola, according to Vitner.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said many Florida markets are showing sharp drops in inventories of homes for sale - a sign that demand is picking up and prices are stabilizing. "That's a major change from just a year ago," he said. "Buyers have stepped back into the Florida market."
Noting the state's powerful appeal to international buyers, Yun said he was particularly optimistic about the outlook for South Florida. "Don't be surprised to see a gain in home prices in the Miami and Naples markets in the next 18 months," he said. "From there, the recovery is likely to roll northward to Central Florida and then North Florida."
Tuccillo noted that foreclosed and distressed properties will remain a significant part of the Florida market in 2012, but lenders are feeding these properties into the market at a gradual pace rather than pushing them out all at once.
The event also featured a panel of Florida real estate professionals, who discussed the 2012 outlook for several sectors of the state's real estate market from a practitioner's point of view. Panelists were Clark Toole, president and COO, Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc. in Florida, discussing residential real estate; Cynthia Shelton, 2009 president of Florida Realtors and a director at Colliers International in Orlando, discussing the commercial market; and Dean Saunders, accredited land consultant and broker-owner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Real Estate in Lakeland, covering the market for land and undeveloped property.
Florida Realtors real estate and economic summit was webcast to 32 local association or satellite sites around Florida. "Turnout was high for our statewide event," said 2011
Florida Realtors President Patricia Fitzgerald, manager/broker-associate with Illustrated Properties in Hobe Sound and Mariner Sands Country Club in Stuart. "We hope to hold more of these forums on a regular basis - sharing knowledge of market trends is a powerful way for our Realtor members to connect with buyers and sellers." ©2011 Florida Realtors®
November 10, 2011
The article below offers five specific, positive, well thought-out ideas to directly help the housing crisis and our overall economy.
'We're Wiping Away Tears' Lawmakers must recognize the human cost of the housing crisis, industry leaders say.
By Robert Freedman, November 2011 - RealtorMagRealtor.org
Dozens of industry leaders joined lawmakers and policy strategists in early October for a sobering meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington to identify solutions to the housing crisis, now in its fourth year and with little good news on the horizon. "We as an organization are holding the hands of home owners that need help and people who want to buy," said NAR President Ron Phipps. "We are wiping away tears. This is real human cost. We need to stop pointing fingers and set an example and lead."
Phipps' message was underscored by a piece in The Wall Street Journal that ran on Oct. 4, the same day as the meeting, that said the country's economy can't turn around without the federal government taking decisive action on housing. "It's time to stop trying to work around housing, and take it on," the Journal's Neal Lipschutz said.
Answering the challenge, participants in the meeting, hosted by two think tanks, the Progressive Policy Institute and Economic Policies for the 21st Century, rattled off steps the administration and Congress could take to get housing moving again (see five of those ideas below).
Looking over the long term, participants widely agreed the federal government must stay in the mortgage finance market and provide an explicit guarantee. "I spent a lot of time in my last job [as FHA commissioner] talking to banks in China and around the world. Most investors would not invest unless [the security] was Triple A and unless it had an explicit guarantee," said Dave Stevens, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
"The market can self-correct," said Phipps, "but the pieces need to be put into place."
Appraisal-free refis for underwater borrowers. "We already know they're under water," Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.) said at the meeting. "The government guarantees these mortgages. We can establish a new floor and allow people to refinance at current interest rates. Extend the terms to 20, 30, or even 40 years," Cardoza said. For little cost to the federal government, the refinancings will have a significant stimulus effect on the broader economy as households' cash positions improve, he said. Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist, agreed the idea made sense from a stimulus standpoint. "It is a great economic stimulus if it [generates] about $70 billion [a year]," he said.
Shared-equity refis. Encourage lenders to allow underwater borrowers to refinance and write down the balance to the market rate in exchange for the lender taking an equity position in the home and imposing some resale restrictions in the early years of the new mortgage term.
Assumable government-backed loans. Allowing government-backed loans to be assumable would make buying today more appealing because buyers would know their mortgages would be attractive to buyers five or 10 years down the road, when interest rates are likely to be back up to 7, 8, or 9 percent. "That would be a very good asset to carry into the next decade," said Richard Smith, president and CEO of national brokerage giant Realogy Corp.
Bulk investor foreclosure purchases. Keep foreclosure purchases by owner-occupant buyers and communities a priority, but also pave the way for more investor participation. One possibility, said Dave Stevens, FHA commissioner during President Obama's first two years in office and current president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, is to open Sec. 204(k) FHA single-family loans to broader participation.
National servicing standards. Right now, different federal regulators are getting involved in servicing issues, and lenders are negotiating with attorneys general in the 50 states separately over issues arising from servicing problems. This piecemeal approach is holding back lenders' ability to move forward with new efforts to help borrowers, Stevens said.
November 9, 2011 Florida's existing home, condo sales rise in 3Q National Association of Realtors: 3Q metro area prices soften but state sales rise.
ORLANDO, Fla. - Nov. 9, 2011 - Florida's existing home and existing condo sales continued to show gains in third quarter 2011 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from Florida Realtors®.
Existing home sales rose 12 percent in 3Q 2011 with a total of 46,759 homes sold statewide; during the same period the year before, a total of 41,728 homes changed hands according to Florida Realtors. Statewide sales of existing condos in the third quarter rose 13 percent compared to the year-ago sales figure.
Florida's existing-home median sales price continued to stabilize and remained level at $136,000 for the three-month period; in 3Q 2010, it was $135,900. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.
In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for existing condo sales, 20,383 units sold statewide in the third quarter compared to 17,980 units in 3Q 2010 for a 13 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $89,600 in the third quarter; a year earlier, it was $83,700 for a 7 percent increase.
"The quarterly numbers confirm the general improvement in Florida's housing market in both sales and prices that we've been seeing since January 2011," said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. "However, this positive trend isn't receiving the attention it's due because of the interaction of people's expectations, perceptions and reality. When you come out of a recession, people expect the real estate market to take a huge jump forward, and when it doesn't, they perceive that the market is 'bad' or still down. However, the reality is that the Florida market is improving and it has been for some time - it's just improving more slowly than initial expectations."
Mortgage rates continued to hover around historical lows in the third quarter. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.31 percent in 3Q 2011; one year earlier, it averaged 4.45 percent.
Source: 2011 Florida Realtors®
November 8, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Eleven months of placing a bottom locally?
Nine of the past eleven months have recorded increased year-over-year sales. While we still have a long way to go, our local market is gingerly gaining a foothold. Someday we may look back at this time as THE BOTTOM. It all starts from there. Let us hope this is that start. And, note that price appreciation always lags recovery.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
October 14, 2011 October 2011 Market Pulse
October 21 by Lawrence Yun, source: http://realtormag.realtor.org/news-and-commentary/market-pulse/article/2011/10/october-2011-market-pulse
Existing-Home Sales Rate For July
This is a seasonally adjusted annual rate, which is the actual rate of sales for the month, multiplied by 12 and adjusted for seasonal sales differences.
Pending Home Sales Index For July
This index measures housing contract activity. An index of 100 is equal to the level of activity during 2001, the benchmark year.
Source: NAR Research
Lender Rules Keep Sales Down
Mixed Outlook for Sales
Results are based on 4,501 responses to 6,000 surveys sent to large and small real estate offices. The survey asks practitioners to indicate whether conditions are strong (100 points), moderate (50), or weak (0). Responses are averaged to derive results.
October 13, 2011 Ready to Invest in Homes Again
Spending patterns continue to be in flux.
October 21 by Lawrence Yun, source: http://realtormag.realtor.org/news-and-commentary/economy/article/2011/10/ready-invest-in-homes-again
Americans socked away $250 billion in each of the 10 years prior to 2008-before the onset of the financial crisis. The savings rate was a low 2 to 3 percent of disposable income. Starting in 2008, consumers became more careful about spending and are now saving some $600 billion a year.
The adjustments were certainly warranted. But the rise in savings has not affected all sectors of the economy equally. Spending on food, clothing, utilities, and health care has hit new highs. The growing population is fueling these areas, so where are the increased savings coming from?
Vehicle sales have fallen to about 12 million units a year over the past three years, well below the 16 million to 17 million unit sales pace typical before the slowdown. Then there are home sales. New- and existing-home sales hit 1.2 million and 7.1 million, respectively, in 2005. The comparable figures are now 300,000 and 5 million.
This process of saving more and reducing debt is known as deleveraging, and it's not just households doing it. Businesses, banks, and state and local governments are doing it, too.
Only the federal government has been moving in the opposite direction: spending more using borrowed money. But this trend is likely to reverse soon. The debt ceiling bill enacted in early August all but ensures federal borrowing will slow because it creates a mechanism for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts if Congress fails to act on the recommendation of a new super committee of lawmakers charged with identifying cuts.
Meanwhile, we can expect deleveraging to slow among businesses and consumers. There isn't a perfect straight-line path in economics. Deleveraging is big now, but tomorrow will be different. Despite major hurdles in the housing market, there are also signs sales and prices have reached the bottom.
October 10, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Year-over-year inventory continues to decrease as sales show a slow but steady incline. While it's not fast enough, it's better than before. See chart.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
September 22, 2011 August Existing-Home Sales Rise Despite Headwinds, Up Strongly from a Year Ago Washington, DC, September 21, 2011 - National Association of Realtors
Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are some positive market fundamentals. "Some of the improvement in August may result from sales that were delayed in preceding months, but favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations," he said. "Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties. In additional to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation."
Investors2 accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.
All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
"We had some disruptions from Hurricane Irene in the closing weekend of August, when many sales normally are finalized, along the Eastern seaboard and in New England," Yun said. "As a result, the Northeast saw the smallest sales gain in August, and some general impact is expected in September with widespread flooding from Tropical Storm Lee. Aberrations in housing data are possible over the next couple months as markets recover from disrupted closings and storm damage."
Yun said an extremely important issue currently is the renewal and availability of the National Flood Insurance Program, scheduled to expire at the end of this month. "About one out of 10 homes in this country need flood insurance to get a mortgage, and we would see significant negative market impacts without it," he said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.27 percent in August, down from 4.55 percent in July; the rate was 4.43 percent in August 2010. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate fell to a record low 4.09 percent.
NAR President, Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the market is remarkably affordable for people with secure jobs, good credit and long-term plans. "All year, the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income has been hovering at historic highs, meaning the best housing affordability conditions in a generation," he said.
"The biggest factors keeping home sales from a healthy recovery are mortgages being denied to creditworthy buyers, and appraised valuations below the negotiated price. Buyers may be able to find more favorable credit terms with community and small regional banks, and Realtors® can often give buyers advice to help them overcome some of the financing obstacles," Phipps said.
Contract failures - cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price - were reported by 18 percent of NAR members in August, up from 16 percent July and 9 percent in August 2010.
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $168,300 in August, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010. Distressed homes - foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts - accounted for 31 percent of sales in August, compared with 29 percent in July and 34 percent in August 2010.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.
Single-family home sales rose 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in August from 4.12 million in July, and are 20.2 percent above the 3.72 million pace in August 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $168,400 in August, which is 5.4 percent below a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 1.8 percent a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 in August from 550,000 in July, and are 8.3 percent higher than the 517,000-unit level one year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $167,500 in August, down 3.3 percent from August 2010.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in August and are 10.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $244,100, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 3.8 percent in August to a level of 1.09 million and are 26.7 percent above August 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $141,700, down 3.5 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 5.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.94 million in August and are 16.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,000, which is 0.8 percent below August 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West jumped 18.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.23 million in August and are 20.6 percent higher than August 2010. The median price in the West was $189,400, down 13.0 percent from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
September 21, 2011 More positive real estate news, and stats to support
The numbers continue to come in to verify a bottom in the housing market. The direction is slowly turning. (see our charts, below, showing the genesis of the trend December 2010.) While there is still a long way to go, these are welcomed positive monthly headlines. The sustained flow of good news and reports now shows that properties have improved prospects of selling, and in many cases at more acceptable prices, especially now that there is less competition from distressed sales. May the trend continue.
Paul and Debbie Existing Home Sales Jump Nearly 19%
Carrie Bay - DSNews.com - 9-19-11
Sales of previously owned homes came in 18.6 percent higher last month when compared to August 2010, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Completed transactions rose 7.7 percent on a month-over-month basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million, up from 4.67 million in July.
The latest numbers far surpassed market expectations. Many analysts were forecasting a decline while others were predicting a much more modest increase, with projections for the annual rate ranging between 4.61 million and 4.80 million.
The research firm IHS Global Insight issued its forecast last week ahead of NAR's report, with a word of warning that the market should be expecting "the lowest sales pace in 10 months."
The firm's analysts explained their rationale on declining consumer demand to buy homes, even as mortgage rates have dropped to record lows.
They noted that in August, the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index dropped for the fifth straight month, plunging 11.9 percent.
"Based on this reading, and on the 1.3 percent drop in the Pending Home Sales Index in July, we project that existing home sales dropped 1.3 percent to a 4.61-million-unit annual rate in August," IHS said.
But Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says he sees "some positive market fundamentals," even in the face of such headwinds as tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene.
"Some of the improvement in August may result from sales that were delayed in preceding months, but favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations," Yun said.
"Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties. In additional to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation," Yun added.
Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010, according to NAR's study.
First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes last month, with the balance of sales activity coming from repeat buyers.
September 19, 2011 Banks' REO Inventories Down by 17%
Carrie Bay - DSNews.com - 9-19-11
Banks held about 476,000 homes that they repossessed from delinquent mortgage borrowers as of the end of July, according to Barclays Capital.
That tally represents a 17 percent contraction from 574,000 REOs on the books just 10 months earlier, in September of 2010, just as the robo-signing scandal began grabbing headlines.
At the same time, the research firm estimates there were 1.57 million home loans 90-plus days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure at the end of July of this year, and another 1.91 million already in the foreclosure process.
Barclays says the rise in processing times has been driven almost entirely by the time that loans spend in delinquency and foreclosure. The average period that loans spend in REO has risen only modestly since 2007, suggesting that any lengthening in disposition timelines has been a function of weaker demand for homes than of processing delays, Barclays explained.
While processing timeframes have been trending up since 2007 as a result of the industry's modification efforts and the deluge of delinquent loans, the research firm notes that timelines increased even more dramatically once mortgage documentation issues were uncovered in late 2010.
According to Barclays' analysis, the average number of months a loan has spent in foreclosure has climbed from around 10 months just before October 2010 to more than 12 months today.
The firm's analysts point out that whether a loan is located in a judicial or non-judicial state has a "considerable impact" on the amount of time the loan is likely to remain in the foreclosure process. Still, even within the judicial state population, loans in certain areas are showing much longer processing delays.
For example, Barclays' research shows that among the judicial foreclosure states, New York, New Jersey, and Florida all display longer-than-average foreclosure delays, with defaulted borrowers in New York currently remaining in the foreclosure bucket for an average of around 17 months.
Although most non-judicial states process foreclosures relatively quickly because servicers are not required to obtain court approval before re-possessing delinquent properties, Barclays says even here, there is significant variation in processing times.
The company's report points to Massachusetts and Washington, D.C. as exhibiting extended processing delays. In particular, subprime loans in Massachusetts currently remain in the foreclosure bucket for an average of over 10 months.
Barclays also found that servicers are more likely to offer loan modifications in traditionally slow foreclosure states, and empirical evidence indicates that servicers are a little more generous in their loan modification terms in slow foreclosure states.
The company says debt forgiveness modifications have historically been slightly more prevalent in states where the foreclosure timeline has extended.
"We found that 4-5 percent of loan modifications executed in slow foreclosure states in 2011 have involved some level of principal forgiveness, compared with 2-3 percent in fast foreclosure states," Barclays said in its report.
Barclays notes that another external factor that has historically driven processing delays on delinquent loans has been the servicer managing the loan.
The company's analysis shows that Ocwen and Wells Fargo have experienced a much more modest rise in their processing times relative to other servicers, particularly when it comes to servicing subprime and Alt-A loans.
Barclays says it is also notable that prior to 2008, there was very little difference in foreclosure processing times between servicers as fewer distressed loans needed to be serviced.
"With the large number of borrowers that have become delinquent in the past few years, some servicers have likely been overwhelmed with the volume of problem loans they have had to manage," according to the research firm's analysts.
Although timelines have significantly increased for all states and sectors, Barclays says some servicers appear to have implemented improvements to their foreclosure processes recently.
Notably, loans serviced by Countrywide and Citigroup have recently shown a pickup in delinquency to foreclosure roll rates, according to Barclays.
"Although there may be a lag in the timing of when different servicers and states start to see improvements in timeline rolls, we hope to see further improvements from other servicers in the coming months," the research firm said.
September 14, 2011 Housing market may be making a comeback
By Marisa Taylor 9/14/11
New data released on Wednesday from Realtor.com show that median list prices for single family homes, condominiums, townhouses and co-ops have surged within the last year in Florida, one of the states hit earliest and hardest by the housing market crash.
Among the 146 municipal areas examined by Realtor.com, four out of the five markets with the largest year over year increases in median list price were based in the Sunshine State.
For example, the median list price of single family homes in Fort Meyers and Cape Coral, Fla., was $213,000 in August of 2011, a 33 percent increase from August of 2010 and the biggest increase in the country overall. In second place was Miami, which had a median list price of $249,000 as of August 2011, representing a 24.5 percent increase year over year. Naples, Fla. came in third with a median list price of $359,900 in August of 2011, a 20 percent increase from the previous year. And in spots four and five were Punta Gorda, Fla., and Fort Wayne, Ind., with median list price increases of 13.3 percent and 12.7 percent year over year, respectively.
While the overall number of for sale listings has fallen in the majority of the municipalities that Realtor.com monitors in Florida, the median age of inventory in the state is quite high, at 137 days, according to the report. The median age of inventory nationwide is 103 days as of August 2011.
"It appears that we are in a phase of stability right now," said Realtor.com spokesperson Julie Reynolds. "We see this as potentially positive, [since] Florida was one of the first markets to be affected by the deterioration of the housing economy."
She added, "Obviously unemployment is a huge factor for any market, as are foreclosure rates."
On a national level, the median list price for single family homes, condos, co-ops and townhomes was $189,900 as of August 2011, just 0.5 percent higher than the median list price in August of 2010, according to the data from Realtor.com.
However, 33.5 percent of the markets covered by the report had median list prices that decreased by 1 percent or more in the last year, and 12 percent of the markets saw declines of 5 percent or more year over year. 43.8 percent of markets saw median list price increases of 1 percent or more, and 15 percent of markets saw increases of 5 percent or more.
And the real estate website also found that median for sale listing inventories have decreased 19 percent year over year since August of 2010, and are at their lowest levels since January of 2007.
The takeaway? "As inventory is declining, confidence is increasing and buyers are jumping in," said Reynolds. "Lower inventories, when combined with stable prices, we see that as a positive sign."
The top five markets with the largest year-over-year increase in median list price in August include:
The top five markets with the largest year-over-year declines in median list prices in August include:
September 12, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics A bottom continues to form!
Since December 2010, Pinellas county home sales, although modest, are at their highest levels since 2006, and listings at their lowest levels since 2005. Read the below charts and see.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
August 8, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
July Home Sales increase over 36%!
Year-over-year Pinellas home sales showed strong increases in July - the best showing
since Oct. 2008 - after two months of ever so slight dips. Last December is when the
bottoming began. With the Fall buying season upcoming, we can expect buyers to sense
the bottom is in and the media to pick up on it, too, which will spur more fence sitters to
make a move.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
July 26, 2011 Case-Shiller Index Posts Second Straight Increase
By Carrie Bay 7/26/11
For the second month since recording an official double-dip in home prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller index has posted an uptick.
Data just released by Standard & Poor's shows that 16 of the 20 metros included in the study and both composites reported positive monthly increases.
The 10- and 20-city composites were up 1.1 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, in May over April.
Detroit, Las Vegas, and Tampa were down over the month and Phoenix was unchanged.
On an annual basis, Washington D.C. was the only metro with a positive rate of change, up 1.3 percent.
The remaining 19 metros were down in May 2011 versus the same month last year. Minneapolis fared the worst posting a double-digit decline of 11.7 percent.
The 10-city and 20-city composites recorded annual declines of 3.6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, when compared to May 2010. (Last year's spring season had the benefit of federal homebuyer tax credits which served to boost activity.)
Still, David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for S&P, says he's seeing some seasonal improvements in May's data.
"This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are to be expected and were seen in 16 of the 20 cities," Blitzer said. "However, 19 of 20 cities saw prices drop over the last 12 months. The concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal."
Blitzer also noted that May's report showed unusually large revisions across some of the metros, in particular, Detroit, New York, Tampa, and Washington D.C.
He says these markets reported a lot more sales from prior months than previously recorded, which caused the revisions.
"The lag in reporting home sales in these markets has increased over the past few months," Blitzer said. "Also, when sales volumes are relatively low, as is the case right now, revisions are more noticeable."
Blitzer also highlighted recent housing statistics indicating a leveling off in existing-home sales, contract cancellations, and tight credit.
"These data all support a continuation of the 'bounce-along-the-bottom' scenario we have witnessed in the housing market over the past two years," he said.
Although we have now seen two consecutive months of generally improving prices, Blitzer says the industry still has a long way to go before there is evidence of a real recovery.
"Sustained increases in home prices over several months and better annual results need to be seen before we can confirm real estate market recovery," he said.
Measured from their peaks in June/July 2006 through May 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city composite is down 32.1 percent and the 20-city composite is down 32.3 percent.
According to S&P, as of May 2011, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in the summer of 2003.
July 12, 2011
The monthly charts posted below, since last December, have shown a steadily decreasing inventory and modestly rising year-over-year sales. We appear to be where the supply/demand ratio is, at last, applying the long awaited upward price pressure that will, in time, render a healthy market. The path is long but the direction is key, and it is positive. We'll continue to follow the monthly numbers as we look for sustained momentum.
Local home prices inch higher
Though not a full-fledged recovery, it marks a solid industry trend.
St Petersburg Times - Mark Puente 7/12/11
The median price of a single-family home in the Tampa Bay area has risen or remained flat every month since January, the longest stretch without a monthly decline since 2006.
In those six months, the median selling price of single family homes - including conventional, foreclosure and short sales - rose 18 percent from $107,500 in January to $127,000 in June in Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties, according to Multiple Listing Service data.
Further analysis shows the median price of just conventional home sales rose 8.5 percent - $156,000 to $169,400 - from May to June in the five counties, the highest price since hitting $169,900 in October.
Peter Murphy, president of Tampa's Home Encounter, a full service real estate firm, said the monthly increases are a relief for homeowners who had endured bad news for five years.
'It's the first real glimmer of housing market recovery that we've seen in Tampa Bay in quite some time,' he said.
Murphy, however, stopped short of calling it a full-blown recovery. The number of sales continue to ricochet like a pinball. The 2,573 sales in June - up 2.6 percent from May - remain low for this traditionally busy buying season.
If sales were in the 3,500 range, Murphy said, a recovery could be on the horizon.
'That would be the truest indicator of recovery in the housing market,' Murphy said, 'and since we don't have that, I'd have to say that we're not in recovery just yet.' Leslie Griffin, managing broker at Prudential Tropical Realty in South Tampa, pointed out that median prices are still falling slightly in pockets of the region with more expensive houses.
'I think it is starting to bottom out,' she said. 'The lower end is stabilizing more and then it will trickle upward.' Foreclosure sales are no longer driving the market like earlier this year. They peaked at 1,096 sales in March but plummeted to 689 in June, a 37 percent drop. The median price of a foreclosure remained flat at about $75,000.
The drop in foreclosure sales is attributable to lenders putting fewer bank-owned homes on the market and foreclosure cases stalled in courts over fraudulent paperwork issues. With fewer bank-owned houses selling, experts predict that prices of conventional sales should rise.
Lenders aren't foreclosing on as many homeowners, either. Initial foreclosure filings fell 22 percent in May in the bay area, the sixth drop in seven months. New foreclosure numbers will be released Thursday.
Although the price bumps are good, University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith said, a prolonged period of increases is needed before declaring a full recovery.
'This thing is still oscillating fairly wildly,' Snaith said. 'There's no guarantee that this would be a smooth ride. I'm still hesitant to say the worst is over.' Experts still fear that homes in foreclosure and those in the shadow inventory - mortgages 90 days late and nearing foreclosure or homes already seized by a lender but not listed for sale could flood the market later this year.
Scott Samuels of Re/Max Metro in St. Petersburg, who deals with bank-owned properties, doesn't know if a glut of bank-owned homes will flood the market. He has seen the supply of bank-owned homes dwindle in recent months.
'There is no big inventory for people wanting to buy foreclosures,' he said. 'The banks say they are not holding back properties.'
July 7, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
The below chart shows relative strength and tenuous improvement. It parallels the economy's Spring "soft patch" due to natural disasters in the U.S. and Japan, as well as, the speculative spike in commodity prices, especially oil and food, leaving little or no discretionary spending. Those set backs now appear behind us as we return to our slow and modest recovery. However, the auto industry is on a hiring spree and consensus projection for second half GDP is up (3% to 3.3%) which should, in turn, spur consumer confidence to purchase houses and other products and services.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
June 28, 2011 Case-Shiller Index Edges Higher
One month after reporting that its home price gauge had officially double dipped, Standard & Poor's says prices have inched up, in line with the expected seasonal boost that accompanies the spring buying season.
The 20-city composite reading of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices posted a 0.7 percent increase in April versus March. The 10-city composite was up 0.8 percent. It's the first time the two measurements have posted monthly gains in eight months.
Both indices are lower than a year ago. The 20-city composite remains 4.0 percent below April 2010, while the 10-city reading is down 3.1 percent.
Looking at the monthly movement, even in the midst of the spring season, it wasn't all up and up.
Seven cities experienced lower prices compared to March, and six showed new index lows in April: Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, and Tampa. Boston posted a 0.2 percent drop for April when compared to March, but managed to hold above a new low point.
The biggest monthly gain was recorded in Washington D.C., way out ahead of the pack with a 3.0 percent jump. The closest behind D.C. was San Francisco with a 1.7 percent increase.
"In a welcome shift from recent months, this month is better than last - April's numbers beat March," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for S&P.
"However," Blitzer added, "the seasonally adjusted numbers show that much of the improvement reflects the beginning of the Spring-Summer home buying season. It is much too early to tell if this is a turning point or simply due to some warmer weather."
DSNews.com
June 16, 2011 Foreclosure rates reflect bright side
St Petersburg Times - Mark Puente
Real estate experts for several months predicted that foreclosures in Tampa Bay would rise as lenders cleared a backlog of filings containing improper signatures.
So far, that hasn't happened.
Initial foreclosure notices in the Tampa Bay area decreased nearly 22 percent in May, according to a RealtyTrac report released today. Lenders delivered new notices to 2,110 homeowners around Tampa Bay.
Filings have dropped in six of the past seven months.
'It's not that surprising,' said Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James in St. Petersburg. 'The worst is behind us, but it's going to be a long way for a full recovery in the housing market.' Many Florida regions also recorded fewer foreclosure filings last month. Ocala was down 26 percent; Orlando, 14 percent; and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, 5 percent. Filings statewide fell 62 percent from May 2010, with Tampa Bay down 66 percent in the same period. One of every 461 homes in Florida received a notice last month.
Several Florida regions recorded increases. Sarasota-Bradenton and Miami-Fort Lauderdale both rose just above 2 percent. But compared with May 2010, those areas are down 47.84 percent and 61.73 percent.
Nationally, initial filings fell nearly 2 percent.
James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said the foreclosure situation is still being masked by the processing delays. He said lenders are somewhat unevenly pushing batches of bad loans through foreclosure as they overhaul their paperwork and documentation procedures.
The mixed foreclosure filings show that some markets, he said, can better absorb an increase of bank-owned properties.
June 10, 2011 Bay area housing market trailing others by a year
They bottomed in '10, an economist says.
Mark Puente - St. Petersburg Times
Tampa Bay's housing market is recovering but is about a year behind other hard-hit regions across the country.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told about 75 Realtors on Thursday that the bay area resembles markets like Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas that bottomed out last year.
He pointed to the 14.2 percent jump in year-to-date sales and the housing inventory of 6.2 months, down from 20 months a few years ago.
The lower the supply, the more robust the market.
'It is a market that appears to be improving,' Yun said at the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. 'Buyers are much more active here. A genuine demand is appearing.' But the average price, Yun cautioned, of $159,227 is still down 7 percent from a year ago. The prices should rise as long as the supply remains relatively low, he added.
The declining inventory was good news to the 75 agents.
'This is almost back to a normal market of 4.5 months (supply),' said Jim Selvey, president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. 'It's a great improvement.' Despite the Sunshine State's lackluster economy, Yun offered optimism. Although Florida lost residents the past few years, he predicted thousands of retiring baby boomers will return the next few years. The southward migration, he said, is inevitable.
'A good chunk of baby boomers don't want to shovel snow,' he said.
Nationally, he predicted sales of previously occupied homes to rise 4 percent this year. But the entire market could suffer greatly, he said, if a new federal initiative requires borrowers to pay more cash up front when getting the cheapest mortgages and interest rates.
Borrowers who don't meet certain income and debt ratios could be required to have a 20 percent down payment. The measure, which aims to prevent another foreclosure crisis, could be finalized in a year.
Yun said 60 percent of all potential buyers would be disqualified if they needed a 20 percent down payment. Tougher underwriting standards have solved many of the issues that led to the foreclosure crisis, he added.
Borrowers are being examined more closely, and only 1.2 percent of loans issued since 2009 have defaulted, Yun said.
June 8, 2011 Which housing values have dropped most?
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - June 8, 2011 - Lower priced homes have been harder hit than higher priced homes in the sluggish housing market, according to a study by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.
High-priced homes have lost 38 percent of their value since values peaked in 2006. Lower priced homes, on the other hand, have dropped 63 percent since peaking in 2007.
Why such a difference? Daniel McCue, senior research analyst for the Joint Center, says it's because lower priced homes appreciated much more before reaching its peak and therefore had further to drop than higher priced homes.
For example, in San Francisco, lower end homes nearly tripled in price before peaking. High-end homes, meanwhile, did not even double before reaching its peak. McCue attributes this partially to lenders making more loans available to lower income households during the housing peak days, which increased demand and prices.
Foreclosures have also plagued low-income areas, more so than higher income areas, according to the study. Foreclosures in low-income neighborhoods are more than double that of high-income neighborhoods, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Prices range drastically among major housing market so what's considered "high-priced" and "low-priced" in the study varies greatly from market to market. For example, in Atlanta low-tier homes were considered under $122,533 and high-tier homes above $221,679; in San Francisco, low-tier homes were considered $312,546 and high-tier homes over $573,577.
Source: "Falling Prices Whacked Low-Priced Homes Hardest," USA Today (June 5, 2011)
June 6, 2011 Most Americans believe home ownership still a great investment
WASHINGTON - June 6, 2011 - Seventy-five percent of Americans say that "owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market," according to a new survey of 2,000 bipartisan voters by the National Association of Home Builders.
Despite their situation - whether underwater on their home or even renters - the survey found Americans to be optimistic about home ownership. Eighty-one percent of those who own their homes outright, 76 percent with mortgages, 67 percent of renters, and 65 percent who have underwater mortgages cited home ownership as the "best long-term investment."
When survey respondents were asked whether they'd recommend buying a home to a friend or family member just starting out, 80 percent of Americans said "yes." Even homeowners currently underwater - those who owe more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth - overwhelmingly (78 percent) said they would recommend home ownership to family or friends starting out.
More buyers are coming up through the pipeline too. The survey found that 73 percent of those surveyed who do not own a home said their goal is eventually to buy one.
The NAHB survey also found:
Fifty-eight percent of Americans oppose eliminating the mortgage-interest deduction and 63 percent oppose lowering it. What's more, 57 percent of those surveyed say they are less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted to eliminate the mortgage-interest deduction.
Respondents were split on about requiring a 20 percent downpayment to purchase a home: 49 percent were in favor and 49 percent opposed it. However, mortgage holders and renters aged 18 to 54 were more opposed to it: 58 percent of younger mortgage holders and 59 percent of younger renters opposed adding a 20 percent down payment requirement.
Source: "The Cook Report: The Home Front," National Journal (June 2, 2011)
June 6, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
A Pause....
May's year-over-year sales were down slightly following an April with sales just barely
up year-over-year. So, what does this tell us? We may have reached a plateau. Hopefully
it is not a resistance level or trend reversal. Following an impressive December-March
run, we doubt that is the case.
Reflected in the chart is, most likely, the tentative economy of the last two months. This
may be a natural breather in a stair step recovery - an extra long recovery. While we've
noticed, firsthand, buyer leads from our websites easing off, there remains a daily stream.
A break in the buyer's sense of urgency is what we see causing a pause in the numbers.
We'll know better soon.
See you next month.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
May 16, 2011 Economy, affordability to drive home sales growth WASHINGTON - May 16, 2011 - Home sales are on track to outperform last year, even though the market doesn't have the benefit of the homebuyer tax credit, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed room on Thursday during the Residential Economic Update at the 2011 Realtors® Midyear Legislative Meetings.
Yun credits sustained economic growth, the slowly recovering jobs picture and historically high affordability conditions. Although unemployment remains high at about 9 percent, the country is seeing steady job growth. More than 100,000 jobs are being created a month, and the U.S. could see 1.5 million net new jobs this year, Yun said.
Frank Nothaft, chief economist for secondary mortgage market company Freddie Mac, said he expects a bit more robust job growth that Yun - closer to 2 million - but both economists said the unemployment rate will remain high despite the new jobs because of the size of the hole that needs to be filled. More than 8 million jobs were lost during the 2008-09 recession, and new entrants to the labor force, such as recent college graduates, add another 2 million to the hole.
Both Yun and Nothaft predict home sales a little higher than 5 million, which would improve upon last year even though 2010 had the artificial stimulus of the tax credit.
Historically high affordability is one of the key drivers of the improved sales performance. NAR's affordability index is at its highest level ever, at nearly 170, which means households earning the national median income have 170 percent of the income needed to buy a home at the national median price.
Behind the affordable conditions are low interest rates, which today are below 5 percent, and home prices that are rising in some areas (like booming North Dakota), will remain quite a bit below their peak during the housing boom. The high number of distressed homes (those in which the value is below the amount of equity the owners have in them) is one of the main reasons values are struggling to get off the bottom.
Yun said that overly strict lending standards are holding back more robust sales: 2010 mortgage originations have a lower serious delinquency rate than those originated in 2002, when serious delinquencies were barely above 1 percent. And 2011 is shaping up to be another stellar year in delinquency rates because lenders still require extraordinarily high credit scores and other hurdles to obtaining financing.
"If lenders would just go back to the normal standards that were in place prior to the boom years, sales might be 20 percent higher," Yun said.
Although he's seeing no signs of lenders opening up on lending yet, Yun said conditions are in place for lenders to start easing up. They're sitting on plenty of money, and they could be reaching the point at which they can earn more revenues at reasonable risk levels by making home loans than by doing other things with their money. "I'm not seeing that yet, but that is a potential upside," he said.
In some ways, the heroes of housing today are the all-cash buyers. They're 40 percent of the market now, so they're helping to drive sales despite the tight availability of financing. Yun thinks all-cash buyers are investors who either can't get financing or think they can get a better return on their cash by putting it into real estate than they can in savings instruments or stocks, particularly given the rock-bottom process of so many houses. He also thinks some empty-nest baby boomers might be acting as the lender for their children, buying a home for them on an all-cash basis and taking back a note. "I'm seeing this anecdotally. I don't know if it's a trend," he said.
Yun's forecast: The U.S. economy will grow about 2.5 percent this year, with between 1.5 and 2 million new jobs added to the economy. Home sales will reach about 5.1 million, up 7-10 percent from last year, with home values staying virtually unchanged.
Nothaft had a largely similar forecast.
Source: Robert Freedman, Realtor® Magazine
May 9, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
For a fifth straight month year-over-year sales increased albeit slightly this time. However, and most importantly, listing inventory demonstrated the LARGEST year-over-year decline in two years, from 6057 to 5156. We are now at our lowest level in over FIVE years (Dec. 2005).
The momentum continues, and "the trend is our friend."
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
April 20, 2011
A MUST READ!
Articles like this one confirms the trend we've been monitoring since last December and
will help maintain the long sought, vital momentum.
Paul and Debbie March home sales jump Bay area may have finally hit bottom, an economist says.
Maybe even better news for homeowners is that average sale prices also rose last month in several area counties. Sales of previously occupied homes in Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties jumped nearly 32 percent, from 3,258 in February to 4,296 in March.
The sales increase and price jumps raise hope that the housing market is healing from the wounds left by a faltering economy and a deluge of foreclosures.
The St. Petersburg Times analyzed figures from the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors and the Pinellas Realtor Organization prior to statewide and national numbers being released today.
No single factor drove sales and prices in March it was more of a mix of reasons, according to economists and real estate experts.
'It's good news,' said Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. 'It's a further indicator that the worst may be over. The bay area economy is modestly improving.' Vitner credited the surge to low prices and interest rates, an improving economy and investors searching for bargains. He stressed the housing market is a long way from fully recovering and that some homeowners may still have a hard time selling at the current prices.
Vitner closely tracks Florida's economy and expected the market to hit bottom this summer. His outlook may change given the recent housing news.
'We're either at or very close to the bottom of the market,' he said. 'It would be crazy to wait for the last nickel to fall.' The combined March sales in Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco counties even eclipsed the sales in June 2010, when an $8,000 federal tax credit created a surge in sales, only to be followed by months of sluggish activity.
The last month with combined sales higher than March was June 2006, when 4,417 homes sold.
Total sales in the three counties are even up more than 14 percent compared to March 2010. The bulk of the increased sales occurred in homes priced less than $200,000.
The average sales price jumped from $149,500 to $165,700 in Pinellas from February to March and $135,376 to $140,360 in Hillsborough and from $106,000 to $132,000 in Pasco.
March is traditionally the start of the spring buying season. But real estate agents said an influx of cheap homes and severe weather in Northern and Midwestern states has helped
drive bay area sales.
Northerners have watched Florida prices spiral downward and are escaping the never ending snow by buying second homes in the Sunshine State.
'People realize that prices aren't going to drop forever,' said Nick Fraser, owner of Remax All Star in Madeira Beach. 'People are ready to make a move. Consumer confidence is a lot higher.' Another possible reason for more sales is that buyers are over the fear of buying foreclosed homes, said University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith.
But he cautioned that several months of rising sales and prices would better measure the housing market. But a dual increase, in the same month is good, he said.
'It sure beats a month's decrease,' Snaith said. 'Any increase is welcome. That's very good news.' Another positive sign tucked in the sales figures: The housing inventory is at or near a six month supply, meaning it would take about six months to sell all the inventory
that is currently on the market. The lower the supply the more robust the market. It peaked in Hillsborough at 25 months in January 2008 and at 18 months in Pinellas in March 2007.
In a typical market, many homeowners buy houses and then trade up when they need more space, amenities or want to live in a better neighborhood.
If that practice continues in the current market, the recent sale of so many lowerpriced homes will eventually trigger the sales of higherpriced homes, experts said.
The region's lower prices are also drawing attention from bargainseekers who want either to rent homes out or fix them up and resell as prices start rising again.
Andrew Duncan, leader of the Duncan Duo & Associates at Keller Williams Realty in Tampa, said many buyers are entering into bidding wars on homes priced lower than $200,000.
'It's pretty phenomenal,' he said about the sales. 'It's moving in the right direction toward a healthy and balanced real estate market.' Firsttime home buyers, he said, are also fueling higher sales. 'It's cheaper to buy the same house that you're currently renting,' he said. 'That's a sign that the worst has passed.'
Mark Puente
Statistics Summary:
4,296 homes sold in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties in March, up from 3,258 in February
32% increase in homes sold in the three counties, March over February
14% increase in homes sold in the three counties this March compared to March 2010
$26,000 increase in the average sales prices of homes in Pasco
Source: St. Petersburg Times
April 8, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Building a Bottom
We're up to four straight months of year-over-year increased sales. While the incline is slight, the direction is right.
May the march continue....
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
April 7, 2011 The chart below shows clearly that distress sales are too large a part of monthly sales. Until they are reduced, substantially, our home prices have very little chance of increasing. The silver lining is that, at least, year-over-year sales are increasing and showing strength.
Source: St. Petersburg Times
March 31, 2011
And, now more data to support a bottom forming. It's still tenuous, and many economic and geo-political factors could delay or derail the housing recovery. But, this is an encouraging position to be in and a promising direction to be heading. Can't wait for next month's report.
We're doing our patriotic and economic part to help America and Pinellas county with currently 6 properties under contract.
Paul and Debbie February Pending Home Sales Rise Washington, March 28, 2011 - National Association of Realtors (NAR)
Pending home sales increased in February but with notable regional variations, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 2.1 percent to 90.8, based on contracts signed in February, from 88.9 in January. The index is 8.2 percent below 98.9 recorded in February 2010. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says it's important to look at the broader trend. "Month-to-month movements can be instructive, but in this uneven recovery it's important to look at the longer term performance," he said. "Pending home sales have trended up very nicely since bottoming out last June, even with periodic monthly declines. Contract activity is now 20 percent above the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit."
Yun notes there could have been some weather impact in the February data. "All of the regions saw gains except for the Northeast, where unusually bad winter weather may have curtailed some shopping and contract activity."
The PHSI in the Northeast fell 10.9 percent to 65.5 in February and is 18.4 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 4.0 percent in February to 81.1 but is 15.9 percent below February 2010. Pending home sales in the South increased 2.7 percent to an index of 100.3 but are 5.3 percent below a year ago. In the West the index rose 7.0 percent to 105.6 and is 0.6 percent higher than February 2010.
"We may not see notable gains in existing-home sales in the near term, but they're expected to rise 5 to 10 percent this year with the economic recovery, job creation and excellent affordability conditions providing confidence to buyers who've been on the sidelines," Yun said.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR)
March 22, 2011 And, now more data to support a bottom forming. It's still tenuous, (distress sales are in the 50% range each month) February Sales Facts
Tampa Bay:
Condo sales: 947
Florida:
Condo sales: 6,984
(Source: Florida Assoc. Realtors)
March 9, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Heading in the Right Direction!
February's year-over-year inventory was down and sales were up. That's three very positive months in a row. We may at last be laying the groundwork for a bottom. From our years of experience, we'd say we are heading in the right direction.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
February 17, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Off to a Good Start!
Housing sales showed strength, again, in January. Year-over-year sales were actually the highest in five years - see chart - and inventory remained unchanged. This favorable data gives credence to predictions of a Spring/Summer housing season organically stronger than 2010 when sales were enhanced with the Home Buyer Tax Credit Program that, for the most part, ended on June 30th.
May the trend continue. And, as they say in sports, "Nothing beats a good start!"
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
February 1, 2011 Now here's some news we can use - and a chart to boot!
Paul and Debbie The U.S. is no longer technically in recovery. As Mitsubishi Financial's Ellen Beeson Zentner points out in a morning note, with today's GDP report, we're officially in expansion, having passed the old high.
January 6, 2011 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Finally Back on Track? December's year-over-year home sales increased since slumping for five months following the original June end date of the Home Buyer Tax Credit Program. That broke a string of 35 consecutive months of modest year-over-year increases. In December, sales rose substantially to 754 houses sold compared to 586 a year ago (see chart). February 2005 set in motion 31 straight months of housing free fall. The cruel trend refused to reverse until September 2007 at which point we began a 23 month crawl up from the housing market basement.
Over the past six years we've seen a high of 1461 homes sold in a single month to a low of 331. Our current 754 monthly sales bode well as we approach this year's traditional Spring selling season. And, this round includes increasingly better economic news than in years past. While we're still in for a long and lethargic housing recovery, at least, after five recent negative months following the Tax Credit Program, the good news is we may be finally back on track.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
December 23, 2010 A glimmer of good housing news? A rise in November existing home sales in the Tampa Bay area tops state and national rates.
BY MARK PUENTE
Times Staff Writer
Tampa Bay's existing home sales rose 7 percent in November, climbing faster than both the state and the nation.
The bay area recorded 2,060 sales last month, compared with 1,923 in October, according to the latest housing data released Wednesday by Florida Realtors.
Statewide, sales were up only slightly from October to November with 11,900 single-family homes sold. Compared with November 2009, statewide sales decreased 15 percent, and local sales dropped 10 percent. Those decreases can, at lea st in part, be explained by the rush to meet the deadline for an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit available last year. Congress later extended the benefit into 2010.
Wendell Davis, president of Florida Realtors, agreed that the tax credit could have skewed the November 2009 figures. He pointed out that this year's sales in November were higher than in November 2007 and 2008.
Sales of existing homes up in November
The flat numbers statewide, he said, are expected in November and December. He thinks sales will rise in the first quarter of 2011.
'We have not seen anything to indicate that this is a downward trend,' he said.
Nick Fraser, owner of Remax All Star in Madeira Beach, didn't expect any big gains last month compared with the year before. He predicts a large inventory of houses to disappear from the market next year.
More sellers, he said, are lowering prices as the market remains tilted in favor of buyers. Buyers continue to make low-ball offers on multiple homes, he added, knowing that they can wait for the right price.
Sellers are becoming realistic, he said.
'I've noticed more motivation from them,' Fraser said.
Florida sales are up 5 percent since January. The median home price across Florida is $132,700, and $125,000 in the bay area.
Foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies continue to plague the state's housing market. Nearly half of Floridians remain underwater on their mortgages, meaning they owe more than their house is worth.
Economist Sean Snaith of the University of Central Florida wrote in his quarterly report on Florida's financial health earlier this week: 'Florida's spell in housing hell continues. I should actually say housing purgatory, since the housing market will not be in this state for eternity, but some may argue it may feel that way.' Snaith, and many other experts, predict the state's housing recovery will be long and slow.
'There will be no V-shaped recovery for housing in Florida,' he wrote.
Nationally, existing homes sales rose 5.6 percent from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, chief economist, is hopeful for 2011.
'Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging,' he said. 'The positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable.'
Source: St. Petersburg Times
December 7, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
November 24, 2010 According to the below press release by the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications are at their highest level in six months. The housing recovery, while choppy, is slowly showing signs of trending in the right direction. After free-fall and stall, there is reason for hope in this annual season of hope.
Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 24, 2010) The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 19, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index observed since the end of June. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 14.4 percent from one week earlier, which included Veterans Day. No adjustment was made for the holiday. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The increase in purchase applications last week aligns with other incoming data suggesting that consumers are feeling somewhat more confident with their financial situation, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. While the increase was magnified somewhat by the comparison to the holiday week, the level of purchase applications on a seasonally adjusted basis is now at its highest level since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 3.2 percent. The four week moving average is up 4.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 4.8 percent for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 78.6 percent of total applications from 80.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained constant at 5.3 percent of total applications.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.50 percent from 4.46 percent, with points decreasing to 0.88 from 1.12 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the highest 30-year fixed rate observed in the survey since the week ending September 3, 2010. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.83 percent from 3.87 percent, with points increasing to 1.04 from 0.91 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate was unchanged from last week.
If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBAs Weekly Applications Survey, please contact MBA Research at (202) 557-2830 or mbaresearch@mortgagebankers.org.
The survey covers over 50 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
November 24, 2010 Bay area homes sales fall 16.9% Disappearing tax credits, high unemployment and low credit offerings slow deals in Florida and the nation.
MARK PUENTE - St. Petersberg Times - 11/24/10
Nationally, the housing rebound didn't last long, as home sales dipped 2.2 percent in October, the first drop in three months.
Florida, once again, fared even worse, according to National Association of Realtors data released Tuesday.
Statewide, existing home sales sunk about 12 percent from September to October, although the median sales price rose 2 percent to $136,600. Condo sales dropped nearly 9 percent.
In the Tampa Bay area, existing sales plunged 16.9 percent from September to October.
On the bright side, year-to-date home sales across the state are up 7 percent compared with 2009.
The lackluster figures shouldn't be a surprise, said University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. He cited three factors for the month-to-month drop: the market distancing itself from tax credits for first-time buyers that expired in the summer, high unemployment and not enough available credit for buyers.
The outlook will not improve, he added, until the jobs picture improves and credit becomes available.
'These things are conspiring to keep housing in a nether world,' Snaith said.
The numbers were even worse when compared with October 2009.
Across the state last month, home sales dropped 21 percent compared with October 2009, and the $136,600 median sales price was 3 percent below October 2009's level.
The numbers were still more mulish for the bay area. Home sales sunk 25 percent compared with October 2009. The median sales price fell 2 percent to $137,900, according to figures released by the Florida Association of Realtors.
The recent sales pattern across the country should continue, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for National Association of Realtors.
'The housing market is experiencing an uneven recovery, and a temporary foreclosure stoppage in some states is likely to have held back a number of completed sales,' he said.
Several major lenders temporarily ceased most or all foreclosures amid allegations that thousands of documents were signed improperly. Lenders such as Bank of America, Ally Financial's GMAC Mortgage and JPMorgan Chase & Co. suspended some or all of their foreclosure activity after the current foreclosure documents mess erupted in late September.
November 10, 2010 Here's a hopeful prediction.
Report bullish on building
Construction will lead a 3 percent increase in state job growth, Moody's says.
BY MARK PUENTE - St.Petersburg Times
Hammer and nails could be flying off the shelves next year if the predictions of one economic forecaster come true.
But other economists aren't so bullish.
Moody's Analytics expects that construction jobs will grow by nearly 27 percent across the state and 45 percent in the Tampa Bay area by the end of third quarter next year. Moody's also expects Florida to see a 3 percent increase in job growth, compared with 1.1 percent nationally.
Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner, who closely tracks Florida, doesn't expect the state to outpace the rest of the nation. He predicts about 150,000 new jobs, a 2.1 percent increase.
In a state littered with thousands of vacant building and homes, Vitner doesn't see a building boom in the near future. But any new construction will help, he added. 'It won't take much to move the needle,' Vitner said.
Moody's forecasts a boom in state, bay area construction jobs
The director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida predicts bigger job gains in 2012 and 2013. Sean Snaith looks for growth in white-collar work, the trade/transportation fields and the health care sector. But not the construction industry, he said.
As for 2011, Snaith added: 'It's going to be pretty slow.' Florida construction has been hit harder by the Great Recession than any other field - almost cut in half since 2006 with the loss of more than 300,000 jobs.
A Moody's economist acknowledges the real estate surplus in Florida but predicts more people to flock here in the next year as the national outlook improves. That, coupled with increased buying power of consumers, healthy corporate balance sheets and improved financing, will sprout more jobs, Chris Lafakis said.
He pointed out that building permits are now 90 percent lower than before the collapse of the real estate market. Supply and demand will be a leading factor in near future, he said.
'We can only sell off so much excess inventory,' he said. 'At some point, people have to start buying cars and homes.' Although much has changed in Florida since 2006, one thing hasn't.
The sunshine and warm temperatures will again draw retirees and working-age people from across the country and abroad, Lafakis added. One of the biggest benefactors will be the sticksand-bricks industry, he said.
'Florida is a trendsetter in the nation,' he said. 'It will be one of the fastest growing states in the next five years.' Locally, Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, said any increase in construction jobs will help the troubled market.
Still, he cautioned that any uptick could be the result of the industry being decimated in the last several years. Moody's predictions seem ambitious, Brown said: 'There's a big mountain to climb.' Pat Neal, president of Neal Communities in Lakewood Ranch, agrees with Moody's predictions. He attributes an increase of jobs to interest rates and low home prices. The company, he said, will build 255 homes this year and about 388 next year, creating the need for more workers.
'The Great Recession has bottomed out,' he said. 'It's time to buy.'
November 9, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Pinellas county's listing inventory increased while sales decreased for the fourth month in a row. The Florida housing recovery has lagged behind the rest of the country, however, the silver lining is that most of the country is actually beginning to show signs of improved home sales. As their sales continue to pick up, eventually ours will also. That's the best assessment we can make as of today. It's not good but it's hopeful.
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
October 26, 2010
Home sales here keep falling
BY JEFF HARRINGTON
Nationally, a housing rebound appears to be taking hold, as home sales jumped 10 percent in September, the second monthly increase in a row and biggest monthly gain in 28 years.
Unfortunately, Florida will be late to the party.
The state's home sales fell 3 percent since August, while the median sales price slumped 6 percent to $133,400.
The numbers released Monday were even more stark for the Tampa Bay area. Home sales were down 16 percent compared to a year ago and off 4 percent compared to August. Prices fell 7 percent to $127,400.
'Florida's housing market is feeling pressure from an uncertain economy,' Florida Realtors president Wendell Davis said. 'Easing foreclosures and increasing job growth would go a long way in stabilizing the market.' Indeed, the current disconnect between Florida and much of the country might be summarized in two words: distressed sales. The term refers to both foreclosures and short sales in which delinquent homeowners sell their property for less than the mortgage balance.
For the first time during the housing crisis, distressed sales accounted for a majority of homes sold in the bay area, according to an analysis of the September data by Tampa-based real estate consultancy Home Encounter.
All told, the firm said, 52 percent of all bay area sales were distressed. The breakdown: 30 percent were foreclosures and 22 percent were short sales.
'We've reached an unfortunate milestone,' Home Encounter president Peter Murphy said, 'and with 75 percent of all pending sales in the distressed category, it's a trend we're not likely to see reversed for quite some time.' Foreclosure listings are at levels 2.5 times higher than the start of the year, he said, while the number of short sales are up about 15 percent since the federal government launched the Home Affordable Foreclosure Act in April to push alternatives to foreclosures.
The net effect of more distressed sales is to lower market values overall and make some buyers reluctant to purchase what could be a depreciating asset. Foreclosures sell for 49 percent of the price of nondistressed sales, while short sales sell for an average of 71 percent of the nondistressed sales price, according to the Home Encounter report.
'Short sales and foreclosures continue to be the Achilles heel of our local housing market,' Murphy said.
Nationally, about 35 percent of all sales were distressed last month, up slightly from 33 per cent in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. Neither the NAR nor Florida Realtors broke down distressed sales rates by state and local market, but there is no doubt Florida is among the highest.
About 157,000 Florida properties received some sort of foreclosure filing from July to September, a flood of filings second only to California.
'Distressed sales in Florida tend to be higher than the nation overall. It's the nature of the Florida economy right now,' said Jed Smith, managing director for quantitative research for NAR.
Complicating the picture is a smattering of state and national investigations into faulty foreclosure filings due to mistakes and alleged fraud. Both lenders and courts have either temporarily halted or slowed down the foreclosure process as the scope of the problem is investigated.
The paperwork controversy is already giving potential buyers of foreclosed properties or short sales reason for concern over validity of property titles.
'People are going to be a little bit gun-shy for a few months as to whether a title is complete because of what happened,' said Smith of the Realtors association. 'I think you'll see things slow down for a little bit.' An association survey last week indicated that about 15 percent of Realtors had already had closings that didn't occur because of the question of title. 'Whether that's business permanently lost or business that will recur later, I don't think anybody really knows,' Smith said.
For Florida, a state saddled with 11.9 percent unemployment, the housing crisis and unemployment crisis have been intertwined throughout the prolonged recession.
'The labor market is going to remain in a state of distress for an extended period, and that feeds into this cycle of gloom as far as real estate is concerned,' said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida.
'Here in Florida, we're at the extreme as far as what this housing cycle has been. To see us lagging recovery compared to the nation as a whole shouldn't be much of a surprise.' In a release, the Florida Realtors said sales of existing condos were up 10 percent statewide compared to a year ago. The median sales price of $83,400 was down 18 percent compared to a year ago.
Source: St. Petersburg Times
October 13, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Not the news we wanted to hear.
Unfortunately, year-over-year sales were down...again. That's three months in a row.
Below, the chart shows numbers resistant to improvement since the June peak. It's
now a three month slide, and September's gap widened compared to the August gap.
Banks have been wary to lend in a declining market, and now some banks (Bank of
America, JP Morgan, etc.) are freezing foreclosure proceedings as they try to sort out
possible fraud from the "rush to foreclose".
Listings held steady last month, however, the "freeze" will likely delay the housing
recovery even further. Why? Because potential buyers of foreclosed homes will most
likely hold off until certain of obtaining clean and clear title. And, Title companies
will be hesitant to write title insurance on properties that may later fall under the
long shadow of fraud. Then, when the mess is finally cleaned-up, these "thawed"
properties will be plunked onto a paused and already top-heavy housing market.
Debbie and I are optimists...but realists. So, we'll update you next month with hopefully
better news and numbers.
All will be well....
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
September 8, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Two Consecutive Months of Home Sale Decreases and Inventory Increases.
Not to alarm. This is to be expected since the vast majority sales from the Home Buyer
Tax Credit Program closed by July 30th. A drop-off is natural. For various reasons,
no recovery goes straight up, so two or three year-over-year down months, after
twenty three consecutive months of improvement, isn't cause for panic. And, the basis
for this current hiccup is clearly identifiable - The Home Buyer Tax Credit Program.
It is important to monitor the trend of the following months for indications to confirm
direction. The improved August numbers already suggest to me we could be back on
track as soon as September or October.
Now, let us look forward to a fall season that will likely continue to uptrend - increased
sales and lower inventory. Here's why:
So review the numbers below and keep in mind the macro point of view.
Paul and Debbie Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
September 5, 2010 Our Economy: In Pictures As the saying goes, "A picture's worth a thousand words." That is why I so enjoy charts. Below are a few I recently researched, and share with you, as they illustrate unambiguous, unfiltered snapshots of where our economy was, where it is, and where it may head. These charts may help you make better informed decisions as to what is the best direction for you. You'll have to see for yourself. There are no simple answers, and these are complex times, yet, there are always opportunities out there - the astute prosper in both good and bad times. Hopefully, these charts will help make the picture a bit clearer so you may prosper, too.
August 11, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Pinellas Monthly Home Sales decrease - first time since August 2008
July broke twenty three straight months of increased year-over-year home sales in Pinellas County (see chart below). This may be just a blip caused by the expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit program. It was first set expire June 30th for contracts dated before April 30th but closing aspect was extended to September 1st. We'll need two or three months of data to determine if we have slipped into a second home sales downtrend or the bottoming process has regained its footing.
X'ed Fingers.
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
July 27, 2010 Home price slide likely Economists reverse earlier forecasts and now predict further declines, including for the bay area.
Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Thought the housing crisis was over? Not quite.
Despite four years of falling prices and recent signs that they were finally bottoming out, homes are expected to lose still more value in many metro areas during the next year.
Parts of the country already pummeled by the housing crisis, like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, will be hit hardest. But even some places that have rebounded or held up relatively well - including New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. - will suffer, too. The Tampa Bay area is expected to see a sizable drop, as well.
That's the conclusion of economists who have been reducing their estimates for home prices as the outlook for the economic recovery has darkened. The number of homes for sale or headed for foreclosure is so high that they think prices will be even lower by next July.
Because housing is such an important engine of the economy, lower prices could dim the recovery. When home values fall and people have less equity, they tend to cut back on spending. And as prices decline, potential home buyers stay on the sidelines, slowing sales even more.
Earlier this year, analysts said they thought home prices had finally reached their low point and were ready to start rising slowly in most areas of the country. Now, they think the actual bottom could be nearly a year away.
The average home price in the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index of 20 big U.S. cities is forecast to drop nearly 2 percent this year from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of more than 100 economists polled this month by MacroMarkets LLC.
That's more pessimistic than in May, when the consensus was for prices to be nearly flat. Other, more bearish analysts think prices will sink 10 percent or more.
Price drops of more than 10 percent are expected in the Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas areas during the next year, according to Moody's Analytics. Those areas have already been scorched by 50 percent declines in home values.
Moody's predicts that other areas - New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington D.C. - will see declines of 2 to 8 percent by next July.
Why further price drops for already hard-hit areas, as well as in healthier markets like New York and Los Angeles?
There's already a glut of homes left in each area by the real estate bust, and more foreclosures are expected as Americans fall behind on mortgage payments. Foreclosures add to the supply of homes on the market, bringing down prices.
On top of that, so-called short sales, which happen when lenders let homeowners sell their houses for less than what they owe on their mortgages, are rising. They can drive down the value of neighboring homes, too.
It could be a decade before the average price nationally reaches the peak it hit four summers ago, said Celia Chen, chief housing economist at Moody's.
Even when they do resume rising, prices may not outpace inflation.
The median price peaked at $230, 300 in July 2006 before tumbling 28 percent to a low of $164,700 in January 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median has since risen to $183,700.
July 23, 2010 Home sale figures jump The state and the Tampa Bay area see marked improvement despite a dip nationally.
BY JEFF HARRINGTON
Bucking a national trend, Florida home sales continued percolating in June, rising almost 15 percent compared with a year ago and up nearly 8 percent in just one month.
With foreclosures continuing to clog the market, a broader recovery of housing prices remains elusive. Yet local Realtors point to the June housing report as more evidence the market is improving. Vernon Taylor, president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, cites a few Hillsborough County statistics to bolster that argument: the inventory of available homes has fallen from 17,000 to 13,000 over the year; the average length of time a house stays on the market has dropped by seven days, and the average sales price has ticked up slightly.
"We're not out of it yet," said Taylor, broker-owner of VET Realty in Lutz. "But my little analysis of this is that instead of a little penlight at the end of the tunnel, we're now seeing something closer to a flashlight head."
The median sale price for a Florida home was $143,400 in June, according to data released Thursday by Florida Realtors. That's up 2 percent from the prior month - the fourth consecutive monthly rise - but it's still down about 3 percent from the year-ago median sale price of $147,700.
The Tampa Bay area held up better than much of the state. The median sale price slipped less than 1 percent compared to a year ago, dropping from $139,400 to $138,400. A total of 3,226 homes changed hands in the region, up 13 percent from June 2009.
For condominium sellers, the numbers were more glum: Although the number of condo sales surged 33 percent statewide and 36 percent in the bay area compared with a year ago, median prices fell dramatically, dipping below $100,000. The median condo sale price statewide was $95,000, down 16 percent, and in the bay area it was $99,100, down 13 percent.
Nationally, the housing market showed renewed weakness as sales of existing homes fell 5.1 percent in June compared with May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units, the National Association of Realtors reported. Sales year over year were up 9.8 percent.
One factor cited for the month-to-month drop was the expiration of tax credits geared toward first-time home buyers.
In Florida, a huge backlog of foreclosures and short sales working through the system continue to pump up the total number of transactions. And many in the industry are wary of another pending wave of foreclosures as more adjustable rate mortgages reset to higher rates.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, said sales nationally are expected to keep falling for the next three to four months, which could drive prices lower.
The median existing single family home price nationally was $184,200 in June, up 1.3 percent from a year ago. The median sales price for all types of housing was $183,700, up 1 percent from last year.
Longer term, Yun said, a fullfledged housing recovery is contingent on one thing: more jobs. Source: St. Petersburg Times
July 16, 2010
July 7, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
June 23, 2010 The below article confirms a still tenuous housing recovery, nationally. However, here in Pinellas County, we are finally seeing some traction. Little as it is, our year-over-year home sales have increased for 21 straight months (see sales chart below). A bottoming process is indeed taking place. To return to a more normal Pinellas housing market, inventory must still reduce by another 40-50 percent, which will in turn place upward price pressure. But...it's not where we are, it's where we're heading, and after all we're been through, that gives us hope for better days.
Paul and Debbie
Existing Home Sales Tumble Unexpectedly in May Tuesday, 22 Jun 2010
Sales of previously owned homes fell unexpectedly in May as delays in processing mortgage applications hampered the closing of contracts benefiting from a popular homebuyer tax credit, an industry group said on Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 2.2 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million-unit pace in April.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected May sales to rise 5.5 percent to a 6.12 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.77 million units in April. Sales were up 19.2 percent compared to May last year.
Sales were expected to rise as transactions for existing homes are measured at contract closing.
Although the tax credit for home buyers expired in April, qualified home owners have until June 30 to close contracts.
"There hasn't been much of a rebound in housing. We are growing from the extremely low levels of last year. On average, we are looking for a moderate advancing trend," said Stephen Stanley, chief Economist at Pierpont Securities in Stamford, Connecticut.
U.S. stock indexes pared gains on the report, Treasury debt prices rose. The U.S. dollar was up slightly against the euro.
The Senate last week voted to extend the deadline for closing contracts to September 30.
The Realtors group said about 180,000 home buyers who had signed contracts to take advantage of the tax credit were likely to miss the June 30 deadline for closing because of delays in mortgage processing.
Government incentives and near record low mortgage rates have helped the housing market dig out of a three-year slump.
With the end of tax credit, a temporary bout of weakness is expected, before sales pick up again as the labor market and broader economy gradual improve.
The housing market, whose collapse dragged the economy into its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s, still faces major challenges from foreclosed properties, which are keeping the supply of houses elevated and prices depressed.
The report came as the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee prepared to start a two-day meeting, where it is expected to extend its pledge to hold overnight interest rates exceptionally low for "an extended period" to aid the recovery.
The U.S. central bank is not seen lifting rates, currently near zero, until next year.
Foreclosed properties and short sales accounted for 31 percent of transactions last month, the Realtors group said, with first-time buyers representing 46 percent.
Despite the weak sales, the supply of previously owned homes on the market fell 3.4 percent to 3.89 million units. At May's sales pace, that represented a supply of 8.3 months, compared with April's 8.4 months.
The national median home price rose 2.7 percent from May last year to $179,600, the highest level since July.
The decline in sales last month was broad-based, with sales of single-family dwellings sliding 1.6 percent. Condominiums and co-ops dropped 6.8 percent.
June 16, 2010 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
Jun 9, 2010 Housing revival fleeting
BY JEFF HARRINGTON
Will Florida's miniboom in home sales end now that the punch bowl of tax credits has been taken away?
At least one early barometer indicates that's already happening.
Tampa Bay area home sales fell 5.4 percent in May compared with April, and home prices fell 3.1 percent, according to a preliminary report from Home Encounter. The Tampa real estate company dissects Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data on bay area home closings and releases results before the official numbers from the National Association of Realtors.
A May drop would reverse a surge in home sales that's been fueled partly by cheap foreclosures and partly by a federal home buyer tax credit that expired April 30. Existing home sales in the Tampa metro area have risen steadily every month this year and by April, sales were up 27 percent over a year ago.
Home Encounter president Peter Murphy said a reversal is troubling because May is usually an up month.
"The typical pattern in Florida is that home sales increase from February through July, then start to decline into the fall and winter," Murphy said. "This is the first time since we've been tracking the data that we've seen sales decline during the busy homebuying season." Not all Realtors are buying the argument that we'll see a summer slowdown.
"I'm a little bit surprised to hear there's any drop," said Nancy Riley, a longtime broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in St. Petersburg.
"We've got a lot of international buyers now. I'm doing a lot of cash deals....I know our pendings (listed) on the board are still much higher than they have been over the past year."
To Murphy, however, the latest MLS numbers paired with a drop in pending sales is the first "empirical evidence" that the housing meltdown, which slashed home prices in the bay area by 46 percent since 2006, is still very much with us.
And the slump will hang around if Stan Humphries, chief economist for real estate tracker Zillow.com, is right.
Humphries' forecast: Home prices in many Florida markets are inching slightly lower and won't bottom out until 2011, compared with much of the country bottoming out by September. From there, he sees prices in Florida staying flat for three to five years as the state works through a high inventory of foreclosed homes and pending foreclosures.
"We think there might be more than 1 million foreclosed properties in Florida shielded by the banks right now and another 5 million either in the foreclosure (process) or seriously delinquent," Humphries said.
In recent months, there was some speculation prices might start to gradually recover given the surge in home sales.
Like Murphy, Humphries linked the jump in sales directly to the tax credit.
Under the program, the government offered buyers who hadn't owned a home for three years a tax credit of 10 percent of the purchase price, up to $8,000. There also was a credit of up to $6,500 for buyers who already owned a home and decided to move. In order to qualify for a tax credit, home buyers had to have a contract in hand by April 30, but the sale did not have to be finalized until June 30.
The tax credit was controversial early on, criticized by some as a market manipulator that could trigger a double dip in home sales after it expired.
Humphries contended the first tax credit last year brought in new buyers, perhaps accounting for as much as 20 percent of home sales. This time, he said, it just convinced some who were buying anyway to expedite their purchase.
Based on anecdotal MLS reports from various markets, "I think nationwide we're going to see a big pullback and sharply reduced sales in the July and August time frame," he said.
Even as the tax credit program comes to a close, however, another twist could await many who rushed to qualify.
More than half of the pending home sales in April were on "short sale" deals in which a lender accepted less than the total amount due on the mortgage. Typically, short sales take a longer time to close than a traditional deal. Murphy said that in May the average short sale took 103 days to close from the time the contract was written. Under that timetable, many of the pending short sales from April won't close quickly enough for home buyers to make the June 30 tax credit deadline.
"Many buyers - and Realtors - do not fully understand that it takes an average of 103 days to close a short sale, and many of them will be sorely disappointed when they get to the end of this month and still haven't closed on their home, thereby losing their tax credit," Murphy said.
On that point, Riley, the St. Petersburg Realtor, is in agreement. "The banks are dragging their feet on a lot of these deals," she said. "It looks like a lot of the short sales are not going to make it."
Home prices in Tampa Bay metro area are down 45.5 percent from their peak in May 2006 and down 10.7 percent just over the past year, based on a recent Zillow.com analysis. The number of home sales has risen, in tandem with a surge in foreclosures, but prices in the market have fallen for 41 consecutive months.
In the first quarter of this year, 51 percent of area homeowners owed more on their mortgage than their homes were worth, up from 46 percent at the end of 2009. An estimated 40 percent of homes in the Tampa metro area sold for a loss in April.
Source: St. Petersburg Times (http://www.tampabay.com)
May 24, 2010
Florida's existing home, condo sales rise in April
ORLANDO, Fla. - May 24, 2010 - Sales of existing homes in Florida rose 27 percent in April, which means that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison for 20 months, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. Another positive sign: Last month's statewide existing-home median price of $140,100 was 1 percent higher than the statewide median price in April 2009.
Existing home sales rose 27 percent last month with a total of 16,781 homes sold statewide compared to 13,244 homes sold in April 2009, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide existing home sales last month increased nearly 3 percent over statewide sales activity in March. Meanwhile, April's statewide existing-home median price was 2.3 percent higher than March's statewide existing-home median price of $137,000. It marks the second month in a row that the statewide existing-home median price has increased over the previous month's median.
"Buyers responding to the federal homebuyer tax credit before it expired helped to boost home sales across Florida," said 2010 Florida Realtors President Wendell Davis, a broker with Watson Realty Corp. in Jacksonville. "And buying conditions remain favorable, with a variety of housing options available in local markets at attractive and affordable prices. Plus, current mortgage interest rates are at historically low levels, which gives buyers more 'bang' for their buck."
Florida Realtors also reported a 55 percent increase in statewide sales of existing condos in April compared to the previous year's sales figure; statewide existing condo sales last month rose 2 percent over the total units sold in March. Though April's statewide existing-condo median price of $103,600 was down 3 percent compared to the year-ago figure, it was 6.9 percent higher than March's statewide existing-condo median price.
Seventeen of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing home sales in April while all but one MSA had higher condo sales. A majority of the state's MSAs have reported increased sales for 22 consecutive months.
Florida's median sales price for existing homes last month was $140,100; a year ago, it was $138,100 for a 1 percent gain. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2010 was $170,700, up 0.6 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median resales price was $301,790in March; in Massachusetts, it was $280,000; in Maryland, it was $235,785; and in New York, it was $209,900.
According to NAR's latest outlook, two trends are influencing a broader stabilization of home prices in housing markets across the nation: months of increased sales activity and lower levels of inventory. "Foreclosures have been feeding into the inventory pipeline at a fairly steady pace and are being absorbed manageably," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "With home values stabilizing, a revival in homebuying confidence will likely help the housing market get back on its feet even as the tax credit impact disappears."
In Florida's year-to-year comparison for condos, 7,291 units sold statewide last month compared to 4,703 units in April 2009 for an increase of 55 percent. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $103,600; in April 2009 it was $107,200 for a 3 percent decrease. The national median existing condo price was $170,600 in March, according to NAR.
Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.10 percent in April, up from the average rate of 4.81 percent during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. Florida Realtors' sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
Among the state's smaller markets, the Panama City MSA reported a total of 128 homes sold in April compared to 108 homes a year earlier for a 19 percent increase. The market's existing home median sales price last month was $160,000; a year earlier it was $156,800 for an increase of 2 percent. A total of 65 condos sold in the MSA in April compared to 53 units sold the same month a year earlier for an increase of 23 percent. The existing condo median price last month was $187,100; a year earlier, it was $172,900 for an 8 percent gain. Source: 2010 Florida Realtors® (http://www.floridarealtors.org)
May 12, 2010
Slide in home prices slows
The bay area's 1% decline, matching the U.S. average, is better than the state's 5% fall.
Tampa Bay's great home price slide has slowed down significantly over the past year, a boast several other Florida metro areas wish they could make.
The median sales prices for single-family homes in the bay area slipped 1 percent in the bay area from a year ago to $133,900, according to first-quarter data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.
That places it at 124th among 174 metro areas ranked best to worst in home price changes, and roughly on par with the national average change.
In contrast, Orlando emerged as the country's hardest-hit metro over the year, with a 15 percent slide in home prices this quarter to a median of $131,600. Second worst: Ocala, with a 14.5 percent drop.
Elsewhere in the state, Daytona Beach prices for the quarter were down 10 percent and Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville were both down 6 percent.
Just three years ago, the median home price in Orlando was a heady $261,300, far outpacing the Tampa Bay area's median price at the time of $214,900. Based on the latest numbers, Orlando has now fallen below the bay area market.
As home price slide slows, talk of stability grows
Overall, 60 of the metro areas in the country saw home prices rise over the past year. Almost 20 percent of the markets posted double-digit price gains.
The median sales price in Florida was $133,800, down 5 percent from the year-ago quarter. Nationally, the median home sales price was $166,100, down less than a percent from a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, said a flattening of home prices "is something we've been seeing in all of the home price measures lately."
Meanwhile, a separate Realtors' report underscored a bounceback in the volume of sales, skewed in part by the surge in foreclosures. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of first quarter sales. Single-family home sales in Florida rose 24 percent in the quarter, with 38,846 homes changing hands.
Sales of condos statewide rose 67 percent compared to a year earlier.
Timothy Becker, director of the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, was encouraged by the news.
"Results indicate that the real estate market in Florida has hit bottom and is in the process of stabilizing across most property types," Becker said in a statement.
Yun credited the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit with drawing down excess industry, particularly in markets like Florida that are overflowing with foreclosures.
Florida's total of single-family home and condo sales combined grew 35 percent from the first quarter of 2009, the third best performance behind Idaho and Hawaii.
May 7, 2010
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
April 28, 2010
Report: Florida feeling chipper
A University of Florida survey shows big rise in consumer confidence statewide. BY JEFF HARRINGTON Researchers at the University of Florida acknowledge that they're baffled this time.
Florida's consumer confidence in April shot up six points to a level last seen 2 1/2 years ago even though the state is mired in record unemployment.
"Florida's consumers have been full of surprises the past several months," said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which released its latest monthly report Tuesday morning.
"Much like the reading for January, this rise in confidence was completely unexpected," McCarty said. "Last month Florida broke its all-time record for unemployment at 12.3 percent. Yet Floridians are far more optimistic this month than last."
The consumer confidence level for Florida rose to 77. The last time the state was at or near that level was when confidence stood at 79 in October of 2007, the same month the Dow Jones industrial average peaked at 14,168.
McCarty surmised that the spike may be connected to enthusiasm over appliance tax rebates and the tax credit for first-time home buyers. "The big question is what happens when the rebates run out in May and the stimulus dollars are spent," he said.
The monthly telephone survey is benchmarked to 1966, meaning a reading of 100 would reflect the same level of consumer confidence as that year.
The UF survey mirrors a confidence surge on the national level.
In a separate report Tuesday, the Conference Board said American confidence in the economy rose in April to the highest level since September 2008, just as the financial crisis was escalating.
The national index of 57.9 was up from a revised 52.3 in March.
Economists watch the number closely because consumer spending, including health care and other major items, accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
April 10, 2010
Is worst over? Looks like it
The numbers show Tampa Bay's economy gradually improving through 2013. BY JEFF HARRINGTON Tampa Bay's battered economy has ended its free fall and is slowly getting better, with wages expected to grow near the fastest pace in the state over the next three years.
Those were among the encouraging conclusions of a far-ranging economic forecast released Friday by the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness.
The report predicts Florida's economy will begin to grow this quarter, ending more than two years of shrinking. But that growth will be tepid at best, the analysis said, as fallout from the housing bust puts the state through "an unleavened recovery."
"Florida's recovery simply doesn't have the yeast that has been an ingredient in previous recoveries," UCF economist Sean Snaith wrote.
"Population growth has been stagnated, albeit temporarily. The construction sector continues to profusely bleed jobs....We still have the plague of the housing bust to deal with, and the bitter herbs of the labor market to remind us of the recession."
The jobs crisis, in particular, will mute recovery as unemployment is expected to remain above 12 percent statewide for the balance of the year and not fall below 10 percent until the second quarter of 2012.
Within the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater market, Snaith predicted:
His statewide unemployment forecast: After topping off at an average of 12.6 percent this year, the jobless rate will drop to 11.5 percent next year, 9.7 percent in 2012 and 8.1 percent in 2013.
Snaith's predictions that the worst is over statewide echo those of several Florida-centered economists who contend the triple threats of high debt, high unemployment and a stillqueasy housing market won't be enough to trigger a doubledip recession.
Among the reasons for optimism: Housing starts have finally started to rise again this year. Snaith, however, predicts Florida is at least three years away from returning to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 167,400 starts.
"2010 will be another difficult year for the housing market, though the worst may be over," Snaith said. "Aside from the cash market for foreclosures and the first-time homebuyer market, housing remains a languishing part of Florida's economy."
After contracting for two years in a row, the Gross State Product (GSP), a measure of goods and services produced in Florida, is expected to expand 2.1 percent this year, 2.5 percent in 2011, and then accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2012, according to the forecast.
Jeff Harrington can be reached at jharrington@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8242.
April 7, 2010
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
March 24, 2010
Home sales grow, but prices fall
Since hitting their high in June 2006, Tampa Bay housing prices have fallen 46.5 percent.
BY JAMES THORNER
As they've done for most of the past 18 months, Tampa Bay homes sales improved year over year: Sellers unloaded 2,050 homes last month vs. 1,856 in February 2009.
But healthier sales haven't stanched housing depreciation. Tampa Bay's median home price dipped about 2.5 percent, to $128,100 in February, compared with $131,400 in February 2009.
Thirteen-percent unemployment and record-high mortgage defaults could press on prices even further this year. Since their highwater mark in June 2006, Tampa Bay home prices have receded 46.5 percent, Realtors said.
For Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, the April 30 expiration of federal home buyers tax credits of $8,000 and $6,500 is critical.
"The key test for a durable recovery comes in the next few months as the tax credit deadline approaches," Yun said.
"If we see a surge in home buying comparable to last fall in the months leading up to the original tax credit deadline, then enough inventory should be absorbed to ensure a broad home price stabilization."
In Florida, home sales rose 21 percent in February, but prices drooped 7 percent year over year. The sales spurt was even greater from January to February, but that's the predictable pattern in a state that welcomes millions of winter visitors.
Places like Fort Myers/Cape Coral, Orlando and Jacksonville topped Tampa Bay for home sales. But they paid for that success with steeper home devaluation.
Across the United States, single-family home sales fell 1.4 percent from January to February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.37 million. Outside of Florida, sales suffered from harsh winter weather, Yun said.
Distressed sales characterize the Tampa Bay market. More than 15,500 local homeowners have applied for government subsidized mortgage modifications - and thousands more will enter mediation with their lenders - but the foreclosure rate continues to climb.
At Craig Beggins' Apollo Beach realty office, a quarter of transactions are short-sale homes, those sold for less than their mortgage debt. Nonforeclosure sellers clinging to high asking prices do so at their peril.
Though the deals take months from contract to closing, 30 to 40 short sales fill Beggins' commission coffers each month. For agents, the wait for a payoff can be excruciating.
"I tell agents short sales are like a Crock-Pot. Keep throwing them in the stew and you'll have a feast in the summer," Beggins said.
St. Petersburg Times
March 10, 2010
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
February 10, 2010
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization
January 29, 2010
Help for housing - it's the economy....
Most know the housing market is much like the stock market, in slow motion. It mostly rises and sometimes falls, but with much less frequency and volatility. Stocks may bounce back on a dime even ahead of, or in spite of, the economy. Real estate moves more in a slow slog, with the economy's fitness a crucial factor - no job means potential mortgage default; possible lay-off translates into delaying moving.
Our monthly chart posting on January 7th illustrates that Pinellas County's listing inventory began it's year-over-year turn-around in June of 2007, followed by an increase in home sales starting in Sept '07. Prices have yet to turn upwards although the charts clearly show favorable supply/demand trends. Most importantly, though, a healthy economy is vital to sustaining their momentum.
May we all discover more hope and less angst from the below data.
Paul and Debbie Economy Grows 5.7%; Chicago PMI Jumps
Friday, 29 Jan 2010
The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest in more than six years, as businesses made less-aggressive cuts to inventories and stepped up spending.
Separately, The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said on Friday its index of Midwest business activity rose more than expected in January to 61.5 from 58.7 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a January figure of 57.4. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy.
The Commerce Department said on Friday its first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.
President Barack Obama said the report showed a "stark improvement" compared to economic decline a year ago.
"This morning we received a report that affirms our progress and the swift and aggressive actions that made it possible," he said, adding that job growth was lagging despite economic growth.
The White House hailed the report as "the most positive news to date on the economy."
"It is important not to read too much into a single report, positive or negative," White House economist Christina Romer said. "There will surely be bumps in the road ahead ... Nonetheless, today's report is a welcome piece of encouraging news."
Romer made clear that the latest economic figures only reinforced President Barack Obama's intention to make job creation, which has lagged as the economy emerged from deep recession, his administration's top priority.
"While positive GDP growth is a necessary first step for job growth, our focus must remain on getting Americans back to work," she said. "That GDP rose strongly in the fourth quarter of last year while employment fell and the workweek increased only
January 26, 2010
Tampa Bay area home sales rise 21 percent from 2008 to 2009
By James Thorner
Tampa Bay Realtors sold 5,000 more homes in 2009 than they did in 2008, a healing trend that helped real estate prices find some footing last year.
Single-family home sales totaled 28,617 in 2009, up 21 percent from the 23,615 homes that changed hands in 2008, Florida Realtors said.
Tampa Bay's median home price ended the year at $140,000, pretty much the level at which it was in the spring of 2009, defying the depressing effects of cheap foreclosure homes.
"Have things stabilized? I think things have stabilized. Have they bottomed out? I don't know," said Nancy Riley, broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in St. Petersburg.
Bargain-rate distressed properties, mortgage rates below 5 percent and government subsidies all helped buoy the Tampa Bay housing market last year.
Foreclosure and pre-foreclosure homes made up the majority of sales in scores of neighborhoods, particularly those in which real estate speculators ran rampant from 2004 to 2006. Many of the buyers of these homes paid cash.
But beware the potential economic anchors of 2010. They include another wave of foreclosures, double-digit unemployment and the expiration of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit by midyear.
"Activity should ramp up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010," said Lawrence Yun, economist with the National Association of Realtors.
Florida out-hustled Tampa Bay for home sales. They rose statewide from 124,168 in 2008 to 163,148 in 2009, a gain of 31 percent.
The state's median home price ended December nearly identical to Tampa Bay's at $140,400. That has altered the traditional pricing relationship in which Florida homes typically sold for about 10 percent more than Tampa Bay's.
Nationally, 4.57 million single-family homes sold in 2009, up 5 percent from a year earlier. The median price in December was $177,500.
Realtors like Riley note that the sale-squashing impact of high property taxes and insurance rates has eased since the dog days of 2007. Florida's Amendment One, which lets home buyers transfer accumulated property tax savings from their old homes to their new homes, is in full force.
Mortgage financing remains a problem. Conventional lenders typically demand 20 percent down payments - 25 percent for condo purchasers. That has forced many buyers into loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which requires only 31/2 percent down.
"I can guarantee you, the market will go back up. I'm just not sure when it will go back up, or how fast it will go back up," Riley said. "Business is good. But I'm working twice as hard for half the money."
January 25, 2010
Florida's existing home, condo sales up in December 2009
ORLANDO, Fla. - Jan. 25, 2010 - Florida's existing home sales rose in December, marking 16 months that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®.
Existing home sales rose 33 percent last month with a total of 14,630 homes sold statewide compared to 11,013 homes sold in December 2008, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide existing home sales last month increased 4.3 percent over statewide sales activity in November.
Florida Realtors also reported a 91 percent increase in statewide sales of existing condos in December compared to the previous year's sales figure; statewide existing condo sales last month rose 22 percent over the total units sold in November.
Seventeen of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing home sales and higher condo sales in December. A majority of the state's MSAs have reported increased sales for 18 consecutive months.
Florida's median sales price for existing homes last month was $140,400; a year ago, it was $155,300 for a 10 percent decrease. Housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in November 2009 was $171,900, down 4.4 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $304,520 in November; in Massachusetts, it was $285,000; in Maryland, it was $245,569; and in New York, it was $210,000.
According to NAR's latest outlook, home sales are seeing a boost from the federal homebuyer tax credit. "There are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Activity should ramp up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires, and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline."
In Florida's year-to-year comparison for condos, 5,968 units sold statewide last month compared to 3,132 units in December 2008 for an increase of 91 percent. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $107,000; in December 2008 it was $130,300 for an 18 percent decrease. The national median existing condo price was $178,000 in November 2009, according to NAR.
Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.93 percent last month, significantly lower than the average rate of 5.29 percent in December 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Florida Realtors' sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
Among the state's larger markets, the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA reported a total of 849 homes sold in December compared to 638 homes a year earlier for a 33 percent increase. The market's existing home median sales price last month was $247,900; a year ago it was $246,000 for an increase of 1 percent. A total of 763 condos sold in the MSA in December, up 45 percent over the 527 units sold in December 2008. The existing condo median price last month was $111,400; a year earlier, it was $112,900 for a decrease of 1 percent.
© 2010 Florida Realtors®
January 15, 2010
Stimulus will aid housing
Hillsborough gets the biggest slice, but Pasco and Pinellas also will share the $88M.
St. Petersburg Times
TAMPA - Federal housing officials on Thursday poured $88 million in stimulus money into the Tampa Bay area to help build affordable homes and clean up neighborhoods struggling with foreclosures.
Most of the money - $38 million - is headed to the Tampa Housing Authority, which will use it to revive an ambitious plan to transform a crumbling public housing complex into a new community with affordable homes, restaurants, offices and stores.
Plans to rebuild Central Park Village date back at least seven years. More than 1,300 residents were moved out of the apartments on the edge of downtown in 2007. Workers completed demolishing buildings a year ago. But the difficult economy virtually halted progress on the project, now known as Encore.
When word of the award from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development broke, Housing Authority chairman Jerome Ryans raced to a Tampa City Council meeting to share the news.
"It's just one of those days when you really want to high-five everybody," he said, while choking back tears. "I'm really, really humbled."
The HUD award also includes $18 million for Pinellas County and $27 million for Pasco County. Another $5 million will go to the nonprofit Neighborhood Lending Partners of West Florida to manage the grant.
In Pinellas and Pasco counties, the money will be used largely to rehabilitate and resell foreclosed or abandoned homes, build homes for low-income residents and provide down-payment assistance and financing for home buyers.
The Pinellas money will be spent in parts of Clearwater, Dunedin, East Lake-Oldsmar, Largo, Safety Harbor, Tarpon Springs and Palm Harbor. Those areas have high rates of foreclosures, sub-prime mortgages and loans that homeowners could have difficulty repaying, said Cheryl Reed, assistant director of community development for Pinellas.
Pinellas will use $10.5 million to rehab and resell single- and multifamily homes, and $3.8 million to demolish and redevelop other home sites. Nearly $3 million will go toward loan assistance and financing for the redeveloped homes, Reed said. The final $500,000 will be for other demolition requirements. In Tampa, $10 million will be used to redevelop foreclosed properties.
The remaining $28 million will be used to build infrastructure for Encore. T hat should create 1,000 jobs, said Leroy Moore, the Housing Authority's chief operating officer.
It also will allow the Housing Authority and Bank of America, its partner on the redevelopment effort, to start construction on the first of five buildings included in Encore's master plan.
The four-story building, located at Central Avenue and the newly named Ray Charles Boulevard (formerly India Street), features ground-floor retail space and 143 one-, twoand three-bedroom apartments. Sixty percent of those will be rented to low-income residents. The award may also pave the way for construction of a second building, Moore said.
The grant is part of $2 billion distributed by HUD nationwide as part of its Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Florida received $348 million, more than any other state. California received $318 million and Michigan received $224 million.
"It is not lost on the Obama administration that Florida has been struggling. Our unemployment rate is higher than the national average, our foreclosure rate is higher than California," said U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa. "They're targeting these monies to the communities that need it."
Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties received $70 million through the first phase of HUD's Neighborhood Stabilization Program in September 2008.
Mayor Pam Iorio called Thursday's announcement the most significant occurrence during her time in office. "It's a complete shot in the arm for the Central Park project," she said. "Without this money, who knows when this project would have ever started again?"
Shortly after she was elected mayor in 2003, Iorio went to the Hillsborough County Commission to ask for help in redeveloping the dilapidated Central Park Village along with a swath of surrounding property. But commissioners rejected the request.
Several years later, after the project was shrunk from 157 acres to 28 acres, commissioners approved a special taxing district to help pay for the project.
At build-out, Encore will include 667 affordable and public housing units, 856 market-rate units, and 268,000 square feet of office and retail space, including a hotel, museum, school, grocery store and restaurants.
January 14, 2010
The final 2009 numbers are in, and they're not pretty.
St. Petersburg Times
More than 62,000 Tampa Bay properties - close to 5 percent of area households - were flagged with foreclosure filings in 2009.
It was also a year of mortgage mayhem in Florida, where lenders sued 516,711 properties for foreclosure, and in the United States, where 2.8 million properties were afflicted.
Was there a positive sign strewn among the wreckage? Maybe. In December, foreclosures tapered off a tad in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties, raising hopes for a happier 2010.
But some housing analysts fear the decline was caused more by government stopgaps and bureaucratic overload than by a housing recovery. "As bad as the 2009 numbers are, they probably would have been worse if not for legislative and industry-related delays in processing delinquent loans," said James Saccacio, chief executive of RealtyTrac, the company that released the foreclosure report.
"After peaking in July...we saw four straight monthly decreases driven primarily by short-term factors: trial loan modifications, state legislation extending the foreclosure process, and an overwhelming volume of inventory clogging the foreclosure pipeline." The number of Tampa Bay properties getting a foreclosure notice rose 17 percent, from 53,630 in 2008 to 62,719 in 2009. Most of the 2009 cases were fresh, although RealtyTrac double counted some properties initially sued for foreclosure in 2008 but receiving additional notices in 2009.
University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith said governmental anti-foreclosure programs, bankrolled by tens of billions of dollars, have failed so far to stem the rise in mortgage defaults.
A good percentage of homeowners accepting government assistance will re-default on their mortgages, Snaith said. And the rescue programs barely touch worst-off homeowners: those most deeply under water on their home loans.
"Your most sickly patients aren't being admitted," he said.
Florida homeowners generally don't receive foreclosure notices until they've missed at least three house payments. According to consultant First American CoreLogic, close to 15 percent of Tampa Bay mortgages are delinquent and at risk for foreclosure.
"In the long term, a massive supply of delinquent loans continues to loom over the housing market," Saccacio said.
Snaith assumes real estate will continue to slide through the summer and recover its footing late in the year. "2010 will come to an end on a better note than 2009 did," he said.
January 7, 2010
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
December 30, 2009
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
December 29, 2009
State's top court orders foreclosure mediation program
By DUANE MARSTELLER
MANATEE - Florida will create a state-wide "managed mediation" program designed to help more homeowners avoid foreclosure, the state's top court said Monday.
The Florida Supreme Court directed judges to refer all new foreclosure cases involving primary residences to mediation, in hopes of easing a glut of foreclosures that is clogging the court system. More than 456,000 foreclosure cases currently are pending in Florida, which has the nation's highest foreclosure rate.
"The crisis continues unabated," said the 10-page order signed by Chief Justice Peggy Quince, which adopted most of the recommendations of a task force that included Manatee County's top judge.
The order directs the chief judges of Florida's 20 judicial circuits to issue administrative orders implementing the mediation requirement, but doesn't set a deadline for doing so. It probably won't be in place locally until spring at the earliest, 12th Judicial Circuit Chief Judge Lee Haworth said.
"We're going to have several challenges in getting this thing implemented quickly," he said. "It's not going to happen overnight."
In mediation, a neutral outside party tries to get both sides in a case to reach a settlement.
The mediation requirement will apply only to foreclosure cases filed after the local order is issued and on loans involving a borrower's primary residence that were originated under federal truth-in-lending regulations. The requirement can be waived if the lender and borrower both agree to opt out or pre-suit mediation had been conducted.
To be eligible for mediation, homeowners must first see a foreclosure counselor who is certified by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Homeowners who undergo such counseling are less likely to re-default on their mortgages, the task force said.
The mediation must be scheduled between two and four months after the foreclosure suit is filed. Lenders or mortgage servicers will pay the cost, which the order capped at $750, but can seek to recover it through a foreclosure judgment if mediation is unsuccessful.
"Requiring borrowers to pay a portion of mediation up front would operate as a barrier to this court's goal of efficiently managing these cases to avoid waste of judicial and party resources," the order said.
Tenants also can opt into the mediation program, but would have to split the cost with the lender or servicer.
The mediators must be non-profit organizations that are "independent of the judicial branch, capable of sustained operation without fiscal impact to the courts, politically and professionally neutral, and have a demonstrated ability to efficiently manage the extremely high volume of foreclosure actions," the high court's order said.
Haworth said that could make it difficult to implement the program quickly in his district, which covers Manatee, Sarasota and DeSoto counties. A requirement that an authorized representative of the lender or servicer participate in the mediation sessions also could delay implementation, he said.
"I'm anticipating the servicers are going to say, 'We've got to hire and train people,'" Haworth said, adding he thought the high court's goal of resolving foreclosure cases more quickly was "laudable."
The high court's order also requires lenders to prove they hold the promissory note, and orders the creation of a statewide reporting system to collect data on mediation outcomes.
Duane Marsteller, transportation/growth and development reporter, can be reached at 745-7080, ext. 2630.
December 22, 2009
Another Big Gain in Existing Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit
Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. "This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead," he said. "We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline."
An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month's mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. "Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns," she said. "This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn't get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans."
Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.
Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply.
"Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago," Yun said. "The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales."
For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.
Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008.
Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago.
Source: The National Association of Realtors®
December 9, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
November 12, 2009
Foreclosures dip 3% in October from September
NEW YORK (AP) - Nov. 12, 2009 - The number of homeowners on the brink of losing their homes dipped in October, the third straight monthly decline, as foreclosure prevention programs helped more borrowers. But foreclosure filings are still up 19 percent from a year ago, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday, and rising job losses continue to threaten the stabilizing trend. More than 332,000 households, or one in every 385 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in October, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's down 3 percent from September. Banks repossessed more than 77,000 homes last month, down from nearly 88,000 homes in September.
New state programs, like one launched in Nevada in July, that require mediation before banks can seize a property have helped stem foreclosure activity, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac. Also, anecdotally, lenders are delaying foreclosure as they evaluate which borrowers might qualify for the federal loan modification program, he said. "That's the reason there's been a buildup of homes that are seriously delinquent but not foreclosed," he said. Despite Nevada's legislative efforts to slow foreclosures, the state still clocked in the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the 34th month in a row, followed by California, Florida, Arizona and Idaho. Rounding out the top 10 were Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland and Utah. Among cities, Las Vegas had the highest rate, the report showed. One in 68 homes there received a foreclosure filing in October, more than five times the national average. Seven of the top ten metros were in California, led by Vallejo and Modesto at No. 2 and 3.
After three years of declines, home prices reversed course in June and have been rapidly climbing month-over-month. This will rebuild home equity and reduce the number of borrowers that owe more than their homes are worth. Still, foreclosures remain near record highs and the mortgage industry is still struggling to manage the onslaught. The government has had to push many lenders to participate in the Obama administration's loan modification plan. The Treasury Department said Tuesday that more than 650,000 borrowers, or 20 percent of those eligible, had signed up for temporary trial plans lasting up to five months. But since the beginning of September, only about 1,700 modifications had been made permanent. The Treasury Department expects to release updated data later this month.
Congress last week also extended and expanded a key federal tax credit for homebuyers that have been credited for boosting home sales recently. Buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years are eligible for tax credits of up to $6,500, while first-time homebuyers - or anyone who hasn,t owned a home in the last three years - would still get up to $8,000. To qualify, buyers have to sign a purchase agreement by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30. "Anything that stimulates buying activity," Sharga said, "will go a long way to mediate the foreclosure problem."
Florida foreclosures
While the Sunshine State ranked No. 3 nationwide for its foreclosure rate, RealtyTrac's latest survey shows surprising strength. Overall, the number of homes in some stage of foreclosure dropped 4.44 percent since September, and also dropped 5.68 percent compared to October 2008.
Source: Associated Press
November 6, 2009
Homebuyer Tax Credit extension signed by President Obama!
And, it's expanded, too! Now, the program includes existing homeowners! Sill eligible are first-time homebuyers or anyone who hasn't owned a home in the last three years. They receive a tax credit up to $8,000. The expansion includes buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five of the last eight years. They'll be entitled to as much as a $6,500 tax credit. To qualify, all buyers must have a signed purchased agreement by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30th (see chart below).
This will be a boost to both housing and our economy, as real estate and its related industries account for nearly 20% of GDP.
Opportunity's knocking!
Happy House Hunting.
November 5, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
October 28, 2009
The Tampa Bay area and most major U.S. cities see a rise, but even experts can't predict how long the trend will last.
NEW YORK - Home prices rose in August for the third straight month, a rapid pace of recovery that surprised economists and raised questions about how long the trend can last.
After a steep three-year descent, home prices rebounded this summer at an annualized pace of almost 7 percent, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed Tuesday.
The Case-Shiller index of 20 major cities climbed 1 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted reading of 144.5. While prices were down 11.4 percent from August a year ago, the annual declines have slowed since February.
In the Tampa Bay area, the index rose a modest 0.4 percent.
Against a backdrop of rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence, the speed of the recovery stumped Robert Shiller, an economist and co-creator of the index.
"It's a time of exceptional uncertainty," Shiller said. "It doesn't seem like a time to see home prices booming, but that's what's happening."
He expects prices will continue to rise for the next few months, but can't forecast beyond that, explaining, "There's no way to be a statistician about this."
Congress is considering extending the tax credit that saves first-time buyers 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000. T his week, top Democrats in the Senate pressed a plan that would prolong the credit but gradually phase it out over the next year.
And home prices are not rising everywhere.
Prices in Las Vegas, Seattle and Charlotte, N.C., all fell to their lowest levels in August. Prices in Las Vegas have plunged by 56 percent since peaking in April 2006, the largest peak-to-trough decline of all 20 cities.
"My worry," Shiller said, "is that confidence will drop back and the rally we're seeing in the housing market will collapse."
Rising home prices are a key ingredient to rebuilding the economy. Homeowners feel wealthier when their property value rises, and are more likely to spend money. Rising prices also help millions of homeowners who owe more to the bank than their homes are worth.
But many economists expect a double dip in prices. Despite signs the economy is recovering, home prices could decline again as unemployment and foreclosures rise and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers expires next month.
Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Global Economics, expects prices to fall to the lows reached earlier this year before recovering in early 2010.
"We need to see flat to rising prices in the winter months," Pandl said. "That would be a very encouraging sign that prices have bottomed out."
While prices are still down about 30 percent from the peak in 2006, the rebound appears widespread. Prices rose month-over- month in 15 metro areas since June, with San Francisco, Minneapolis and San Diego leading the way.
September home sales figures back up the recovery. Home resales climbed more than 9 percent last month, the largest amount in more than 26 years, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Sales figures for newly built homes are due out today.
Source: Associated Press
October 22, 2009
Our local real estate market is currently crawling along the bottom - which is actually a good sign, considering the past three years. The decline in sales reversed a year ago (note charts below). Soon we should see prices bottoming, but not rising for some time, because nearly half the current closings are distressed properties shadowed by shiploads of inventory waiting to be unloaded. We all should expect prices to remain flat until monthly sales levels rise substantially from their relatively improved yet lethargic levels. And, once price appreciation does return, it will most likely be modest - perhaps a couple of percentage points.
We've had a string of improved housing data this past year, and that is indeed good news. But we should remember to make our real estate decisions not on hearsay or gut, rather on the sober facts, charts, and well written articles from the likes of the always astute Mr. Thorner, below.
Hang in there; the ship is slowly beginning to turning.
All will be well.
Paul and Debbie
Local homes too pricey?
Tampa Bay home prices are still overvalued and probably won't bottom out until early to mid 2010, according to economists who addressed a National Association of Home Builders conference on Wednesday.
Continued high unemployment, competition from foreclosure homes and rising mortgage rates could depress prices heading into next year.
Tampa Bay's median home price, which has stood for most of this year near $140,000, could drop 10 percent more, according to Mark Zandi, economist with Moody's Economy.com. As of August, Tampa Bay home prices had fallen 40 percent from their peak in mid 2006.
"We're still in this very negative kind of cycle that needs to be broken," Zandi said.
Tampa Bay homes, when measured against local income and rental rates, are priced too high, Zandi said. It could be worse. Much of the Washington, D.C.to Boston corridor was rated "significantly overvalued," as opposed to Tampa's rating of "overvalued." Zandi said housing in Sarasota and Orlando, where incomes are higher relative to home prices, is "undervalued." The news didn't surprise Tampa Bay builders who gathered to watch the conference Wednesday. Eric Isenbergh, owner of townhome builder Davison Homes, said he will remain pessimistic until he sees improvement in the region's 11.7 percent jobless rate. Isenberg ceased building in 2007 and isn't ready to restart the business yet.
"Without labor and jobs coming back, the housing market's not coming back," Isenberg said. "There won't be a good measurable upturn until 2010." Many forces continue to weigh down the housing market. Foreclosures, which plateaued in the summer as the government poured money into modifying mortgages, are expected to surge again next year. More than a third of the newly modified mortgages are expected to default again, adding to the foreclosure pool.
And a "jobless recovery" next year will keep home sales tame, said Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo bank. Even if the economy grows, Vitner said, employers won't rush out to hire people.
Vitner predicted a further 4.5 percent home price decline, but cautioned that regional home price reports ignore neighborhood variations. He noted that in Tampa Bay, where overall home values are down 40 percent, some communities are seeing 20 percent declines, and others are seeing 60 percent declines.
"Housing is very, very local," Vitner said.
To help stem the predicted home price slide, Zandi urged the government to extend and expand the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.
Though politically unpopular, widening eligibility to include real estate investors could help mop up excess foreclosure homes on the market, Zandi said.
By the numbers
Tampa Bay's home prices have been fairly steady much of this year, but the situation at the national level means we're not out of the woods. Here's the story in numbers:
National surplus of vacant homes: 1.8 million units
Time it will take, at current sales, to work off that surplus: More than two years
Number of underwater mortgages nationally: 16 million out of 52 million
Percentage of modified mortgages that will probably default again: 30 to 40 percent
Estimated number of U.S. homes in foreclosure or with delinquent mortgages: 7 million
Sources: Moody's Economy.com, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Wells Fargo
October 10, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
September 18, 2009
Our homes aren't helping us
St Petersburg Times - James Thorner
For most of us, our home is our biggest investment. And we desire not any old investment but a winning investment. But recent home sales in the Tampa Bay area have turned that assumption on its head.
Close to half of us in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties have been selling our homes at a loss this summer. Our block-and-stucco babies have been playing us for financial fools.
Zillow, the online real estate company, says 45 percent of Tampa Bay area homeowners sold at a loss as of July. More than 3,500 houses and condos sold in July, so we're talking a sizable number of money losers. It's worse in Hillsborough, where the sold-at-a-loss rate was 50 percent. Pinellas County fared best at 40 percent.
But what a change from the previous decade, when a scant 5 percent of homeowners lost money on their sales. During the housing boom, our homes bred equity like rabbits on Viagra.
When you plow through the Tampa Bay numbers, several things become clear. If you bought a new home in the past four years, your chances of selling at a loss are higher.
Take Pasco County. Its over all sold-at-a-loss percentage is 42 percent. But when you head over to Land O'Lakes, where thousands of new homes were built during the boom, the rate is 49 percent. The new sections of Wesley Chapel have a rate approaching 70 percent.
But when it comes to older communities like Holiday, Hudson and New Port Richey, only a third of homeowners sold at a loss. In most cases they lived in their homes long enough to establish equity.
St. Petersburg seems to buck the older-is-better formula. While Dunedin and Safety Harbor had sold-at-a-loss percentages below 30 percent, St. Petersburg's rate hovered at 44 percent. That suggests that heavy real estate investor involvement, even in older homes, can ravage a neighborhood's resale values.
Hillsborough showed the same trends. East Tampa, where cheap homes changed hands frantically during the boom, got the worst of it. So did Corey Lake Isles, a New Tampa neighborhood that registered a staggering 80 percent sold-at-loss rate.
Sixty-one percent of home sellers in River view, in the heart of Hillsborough's neo-suburbia, lost money on their sales. But in Lutz, where new homes are thin on the ground, 29 percent of homeowners sold at a loss.
It should be pointed out that in most cases it's the banks, and not the homeowners, who are bearing the losses. Bank-owned homes and short sales account for more than 40 percent of area transactions.
A short sale is when homeowners, with the permission of the bank, sell for less than the mortgage amount. It's essentially a get-out-debt-free card.
Conclusions? If we bought a new home during the boom, we not only overpaid, but we probably borrowed too much. How else to explain the equity bleed? On the other hand, neighborhoods with longtime homeowners have looked like relative paragons of stability. It could always be worse. More than two-thirds of Orlando homeowners are selling at a loss. Our kingdom has been a little more magical.
September 11, 2009
Many Experts Support Extending Tax Credit
Daily Real Estate News
Real estate professionals and home builders are pushing for an extension and an increase in tax incentives to encourage home buying. Otherwise, they argue, that it is very likely that the current housing uptick will end on Dec. 1, when the tax credit does.
"The giddiness we see out there [about a recovery] is without merit," says Richard A. Smith, CEO of Realogy, which is the parent company of Century 21, ERA, Coldwell Banker, and Sotheby's International Realty.
Not everybody sees things Smith's way. Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital in New York, says that while the tax credit did contribute to an increase in sales, some of the improvement reflects an improving economy.
"Even if you say some of the gain is artificial, it's still true that we're seeing an increase in housing demand, and that shows fundamental strength," she says.
Mark M. Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, ignores this chicken-or-egg argument and points to an analysis he did that suggests increasing the tax credit to $15,000 for all home owners through the end of next year would result in 675,000 additional home sales.
Source: BusinessWeek, Prashant Gopal (09/11/2009)
September 9, 2009
Mortgage Applications Rise as Rates Fall
Daily Real Estate News
Mortgage rates declined last week, triggering a dramatic jump in mortgage applications.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its weekly index of mortgage application volume rose 17 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 15.8 percent and was up a whopping 64.5 percent compared to the same week a year ago.
Much of the increase was in refinances, with the refinance index increasing 22.5 percent, the biggest jump since March. The purchase index rose 9.5 percent, which was the largest gain since early April.
Mortgage rates were down across the board:
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (09/09/2009)
September 8, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
August 28, 2009
First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Extension Possible
Bills to extend the maximum $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, which expires Nov. 30, are pending in both the U.S. House and the Senate.
Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat and chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, is co-sponsor of a bill with Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson that would raise the credit amount to a maximum of $15,000.
Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid of Nevada favors an extension of the current credit. He was quoted by the Las Vegas Sun saying, "It's something we can get done."
Odds are that the credit will be extended and broadened to cover all buyers next year, but the chances of the amount increasing aren't as good, observers say.
Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth R. Harney (08/22/2009)
August 26, 2009
Tampa Bay home prices finally register an uptick
St Petersburg Times - James Thorner
After three years of slipping and sliding , Tampa Bay area home prices finally found some traction in June, suggesting the worst of the housing bust may be over. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index reported prices rose locally 0.4 percent from May to June. The annual numbers are still lousy. From June 2008 to June 2009, Tampa Bay home values are down 19.5 percent.
But in a housing market where close to 40 percent of sales involved foreclosure and pre-foreclosure properties, home appreciation has been an alien concept since summer 2006.
Craig Beggins, a real estate broker who specializes in Hillsborough County's Apollo Beach area, said his business closed 190 home sales in June. Prices didn't rise measurably, Beggins said, but they stabilized.
"We're selling the hell out of several neighborhoods," Beggins said, citing places such as ritzy waterfront MiraBay and middle-income Covington Park. "We're paying our bills."
The home price improvement occurred across nearly the whole Case-Shiller index, which takes in 20 large cities. In fact, Tampa was a laggard: The national home price improvement from May to June was 1.4 percent, vs. the 0.4 percent in Tampa.
Las Vegas and Detroit were the only cities where prices fell from May to June.
The convergence of several factors account for the recent price stabilization, economists say. Mortgage interest rates remain below 5.5 percent for credit-worthy buyers. The $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit is up and running and scheduled to expire Dec. 1. Foreclosures, which could swallow more than a million homes in the United States this year, have pushed home prices below replacement costs in some areas.
"For the second month in a row, we're seeing some positive signs," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's. "There are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. However, some of the hardest-hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness."
The Case-Shiller index gets brownie points for accuracy since it compares repeat sales of individual homes. Tampa Bay Realtors keep their own highly quoted home price statistics. They registered a small price decline from May to June, from $141,100 to $139,400.
In Tampa Bay, prices have been, with minor variations, largely stagnant since February and March. Most Florida economists don't expect real estate to appreciate steadily until 2011. And based on the number of foreclosures entering the market, they expect the recovery to be "L-shaped," meaning prices will crawl along the bottom for a year or more.
"We're probably close to the bottom, but we're not there just yet," said Mark Vitner, an economist who specializes in Florida for Wells Fargo bank. "My hunch is that prices will remain at these levels for the next couple of years."
Vitner's biggest concern is mortgage defaults. More than half of Tampa Bay residential mortgages are under water, meaning homeowners owe more than their houses are worth. While only a small percentage of these homes will enter foreclosure, we're still not out of the woods, Vitner said. "There's still an awful lot of troubled loans out there.''
August 22, 2009
Bay area home sales up 30 percent
Here comes that 2002 feeling again.
Tampa Bay property owners sold 2,822 single-family homes in July, a 30-percent improvement over the 2,174 homes that sold in July 2008.
To put it in perspective, the July sales numbers are slightly better than those in July 2002 and slightly worse than those in July 2003.
The latest report from the Florida Association of Realtors also notes a 19-percent price drop over the year, from $176,500 in July 2008 to $143,100 in July 2009.
"I think we're on the road to recovery, and even though most markets report they've seen the bottom, it's going to be a long climb," said Timothy Becker, director of the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.
Of Florida's 19 largest real estate markets, only Gainesville's sales declined year over year. Statewide sales were 15,882 in July, up 37 percent from 11,595 in July 2008. Sales doubled year over year in Cape Coral-Fort Myers.
Tampa Bay's home sales in July were down a hair from the 2,848 that sold in June, but the median sale price increased from the $139,400 recorded in June. Prices appear to have flattened - or even risen a little - since bottoming in January.
Realtors report that a third to a half of transactions in the Tampa Bay area involve foreclosure or pre-foreclosure homes. That has been dragging down housing values, which leads to more foreclosures.
August 21, 2009
Strong Gain in Existing-Home Sales Maintains Uptrend
For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he is encouraged. "The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales," he said.
The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999.
"Because price-to-income ratios have fallen below historical trends, there are more all-cash offers. In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint," Yun said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.22 percent in July from 5.42 percent in June; the rate was 6.43 percent in July 2008.
An NAR practitioner survey showed first-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in July, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said the first-time buyer tax credit is working. "In addition to first-time buyers, we're also seeing increased activity by repeat buyers. While many entry-level buyers are focused on the discounted prices of distressed homes, they're also freeing some existing owners to sell and make a move," he said.
"Realtors® are the best resource for consumers in these changing market conditions because the transaction process has become more complex. Since it's now taking longer to complete a home sale, first-time buyers who want to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit should try to make contract offers by the end of September," McMillan said. "Otherwise, they may miss the November 30 closing deadline."
Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 7.3 percent to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply2 at the current sales pace, which was unchanged from June because of the strong sales gain. Raw inventory totals are 10.6 percent lower than a year ago when the number of unsold homes was at a record.
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $178,400 in July, which is 15.1 percent lower than July 2008. Distressed properties continue to weigh down the median price because they typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.
Single-family home sales increased 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in July from a pace of 4.33 million in June, and are 5.0 percent higher than the 4.39 million-unit level in July 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $178,300 in July, which is 14.6 percent below a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 12.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 units in July from 560,000 in June, and are 5.9 percent above the 595,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $178,800 in July, down 18.9 percent from July 2008.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 13.4 percent to an annual pace of 930,000 in July, and are 3.3 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $236,700, down 15.0 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 10.9 percent in July to a level of 1.22 million and are 8.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $157,200, which is 5.9 percent less than July 2008.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 7.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.95 million in July and are 5.4 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the South was $164,500, down 7.1 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West slipped 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.13 million in July, but are 1.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $202,300, which is 28.0 percent below July 2008.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. NOTE: Any references to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.
1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau's series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample - more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month - and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
August 10, 2009
Here in Pinellas County charts confirm sustained patterns of progress. As of Aug 1st year-over-year Listings maintained their three year march downward as year-over-year Sales since Sept 2008 clawed their way upward. We've closely watched and evaluated these developments, and based on the data, we expect these significant trends to continue, with this being...THE BOTTOM. However, the coming months could see foreclosure - and job loss - spikes. Solid borrowers without high risk sub-prime loans are also victims of the recession and on unemployment insurance that is fast running out. If it is not extended, many will have to give back their homes to the banks.
On the positive side, job losses locally could level off with the arrival of U.S. Government Stimulus jobs. Attorney General Eric Holder announced Tampa Bay is receiving $10, 237,475 in stimulus money to hire, and rehire, more than 53 police officers (42 in Pinellas!). In September, $45,000,000 in stimulus will be applied to a long delayed $220,000,000 major overpass & traffic project on U.S.19 from Gulf-to-Bay to Harn Rd. Overpasses will be built on U.S. 19 at Belleair Road and Seville Blvd, plus a complete replacement of the 5-lane Gulf-to-Bay overpass with a 6-lane, higher flyover. Nursery Rd. and Harn Rd. traffic will gain access to the overpasses via the newly constructed frontage roads.
Yes, it will take a lot to turn things around but there is action taking place. Once we do return to a more normal real estate market (1, 2, 3 yrs!?) perhaps we may even see our ol' friend, Price Appreciation pay us a visit once again. X'ed Fingers!
While we've all lost value in our homes, both national & local stats show we're turning a corner. With the current extremely low loan rates, now may be an astute time to at least reevaluate any future plans to upsize or downsize before the certain arrival - barely beyond our horizon - of those toxic twins: HIGH loan rates & Inflation.
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
July 29, 2009
Housing shows signs of life
Tampa Bay area home prices were flat from April to May, easing off months of decline, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home price index.
While the region's home prices fell 20.8 percent from May 2008 to May 2009, Case-Shiller suspects the worst of the housing slump is behind us.
"The pace of descent in home price values appears to be slowing," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's.
Case-Shiller's numbers are considered especially reliable because they measure repeat sales of individual homes. Homes sales numbers published by the Florida Association of Realtors also confirm steadier home prices since about January. Since peaking in July 2006, Tampa Bay housing prices had been on a multi-year slide.
Local home sales, measured year over year, have also improved in almost every month since September. Discounted foreclosures homes have led the way. They typically sell for half to two-thirds of the price of a non-distressed property.
The month-to-month improvement in home prices wasn't restricted to Tampa Bay. On the 20-city Case-Shiller index, only four cities showed price declines from April to May: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Seattle.
But year to year, all 20 cities recorded home price drops, with Phoenix leading the list with a plunge of 34.2 percent. Las Vegas was second-worst.
"While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis, home prices are still down about 17 percent on average across all metro areas, so we likely do ha ve a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation," Blitzer said.
Most Florida economists predict home prices will stay relatively flat for at least a year and won't appreciate with any strength or consistency before 2011. Stricter lending standards, including the near-disappearance of sub-prime mortgages blamed for sinking the housing market, have curtailed sales.
July 24, 2009
June home sales up 21%, but foreclosures cutting into prices
Tampa Bay area home sales rose 21 percent in June compared with a year earlier, but at least one Tampa Bay area housing analyst complained that banks are harming the housing market by unfairly dumping foreclosure homes.
The Florida Associa tion of Realtors said sales improved to 2,848 in June from 2, 346 in June 2008. That continues a trend of rising sales that started last September. The peak for June home sales was 5,230 in 2005.
Local home prices have been holding more or less steady since they bottomed out at $121,000 in January but still are down 22 percent from a year earlier. June's median sales price was $139,400.
Prices would be higher were it not for banks pouring cheap foreclosure homes onto the market at about half price, said Peter Murphy, president of Tampa's Home Encounter.
Home Encounter said distressed sales - both foreclosures and preforeclosures - constituted 37 percent of sales in June.
Murphy accused banks of prolonging the housing slump. He said the federal bank bailout perversely encouraged banks to sell homes at any price because the government is covering their losses. "Lenders - not homeowners - have become the most powerful force in the U.S. housing market," Murphy said. "Yet rather than learning a lesson from the housing boom and acting in a responsible fashion, lenders are now selling homes at prices so low that they're single-handedly leading the decline in home values in Tampa Bay."
Nevertheless, the sheer volume of cut-rate distressed properties is driving the sales turn-around. Realtors also cited the $8,000 first-time home buyer federal tax credit that expires at the end of the year.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater isn't alone. Home sales gained in all of Florida's 19 major markets except Gainesville, Sarasota-Bradenton and Tallahassee. Improvements were concentrated in hard-hit housing markets like Cape Coral-Fort Myers, where the average home changes hands for less than $88,000. The cheapness of many homes is causing problems in some quarters. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said poor appraisals tied to distressed property sales are killing deals."Poor appraisals are stalling transactions," Yun said. "The big question is how much the appraisal issue will impact the ability of contracts to go to closing."
July 17, 2009
Sign of a turnaround - only 7, 200 foreclosures
June's default rate might be a positive sign.
With the subtlety of a cement sack loosed from a bank skyscraper, another 7,200 foreclosure cases dropped into our courtrooms last month.
That's 7,200 houses - the residential stock of a typical small town - plunged into mortgage default in a single month in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco and Hernando counties.
But after digging through charts put out by RealtyTrac, the California company that publishes market-by-market foreclosure data, June could be the month when foreclosures began beating a retreat.
As I've repeated in earlier columns, home sales and prices have already begun to right themselves in the Tampa Bay area. Sales have risen in nine of the past 10 months. Prices seem to have stabilized - and even risen a smidgen - since January. What's been lacking is evidence that insolvent homeowners would bleed fewer of their deeds onto the foreclosure market. That evidence might have emerged from June's foreclosure report.
After a punishing sequence of months in which local foreclosure filings, measured year over year, rose by 30 to 50 percent, foreclosures in June posted a gain of only 12 percent. The number was impressively modest for several reasons. Foreclosures across Florida rose 31 percent to reach 52,899 in June. Nationally, June's 336,173 foreclosure filings represented an increase of 33 percent from a year earlier.
On top of that, at the start of the year economists predicted a wave of summer mortgage defaults as unemployment deepened and the state's foreclosure moratorium petered out. But June came and went without any spikes on the chart.
Why the reprieve? The government's foreclosure prevention programs, for all the initial hoopla about helping millions of hard-pressed homeowners, have served a piddling number of mortgage borrowers so far. At last count, loan restructuring has benefited fewer than 100,000 across the country.
A better explanation lies with the housing market itself. According to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, home sales in June totaled 1,714. That's a decline of almost half since June 2005, but monthly home sales haven't been that high since December 2006. Sales of distressed properties - bargain priced and attractive to cash buyers - have led the way.
Nevertheless, national economists remain pessimistic about foreclosures. The latest prediction, which has grown to mythic stature among national reporters, is the wave of "Alt-A" foreclosures that's supposed to capsize our market anew.
These were loans made to middle-of-the-road borrowers. Strapped to the hilt in the recession, these homeowners are supposedly about to mail their house keys back to the bank all at once.
Or so the money gurus inform us.
Dub me unconvinced. At least in our neck of the woods, foreclosures have been far more than just a sub-prime phenomenon the past two years. They have already cut into many middle-of-the-road borrowers around here. Those not peddling their distressed homes on the cheap are lobbying their banks for easier terms.
Yes, foreclosures in the Tampa Bay area are still rising, but they're rising at a dramatically slower rate. If we're lucky, June will mark the start of the Summer When Losing Your Home Lost its Groove.
July 16, 2009
$8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and those who haven't owned a home in three years!
$8,000!! In case you missed this or simply forgot, here's some more fuel (read below) to help fan the embers of our once blazing real estate market - an unprecedented incentive for buyers on the sidelines to purchase of a home now.
If you're selling, tell your buyer prospects; if you're buying, BUY and tell your friends!
If you have any real estate questions, just give us a call. 727-789-5555
July 9, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
June 24, 2009
Nationally, sales slip in May but Pinellas County is showing signs of stabilizing and bottoming. See Pinellas charts from our June 6th entry below.
May new home sales dip 0.6 percent
WASHINGTON - New U.S. home sales dipped slightly last month, in another sign that the housing market recovery is likely to be gradual and prolonged.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales edged down 0.6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, from a downwardly revised April rate of 344,000.
The results fell far short of economists' forecast, but many analysts think new home sales hit bottom in January and will rise gradually as the economy gathers steam.
The median sales price last month rose 4.2 percent from April to $221,600, but that's still 3.4 percent below year-ago levels.
"The housing market may be starting to come back, but the improvement is hardly a tsunami," wrote Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
Sales of previously occupied homes crept up 2.4 percent in May, the third monthly gain this year, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. There appears to be a strong consensus that existing home sales have hit bottom, but prices will continue to fall because rising unemployment is forcing more homeowners into foreclosure.
The housing crisis, which started in late 2006, triggered a global financial meltdown that pushed the U.S. economy into a recession at the end of 2007. Government tax credits and spending have helped bring some homebuyers back into the market, but federal programs to stem foreclosures have yet to make a dent.
"It is difficult to craft a scenario under which (loan) origination volumes would come anywhere close to reaching the numbers originally envisioned for the program," Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said this week as he lowered his 2009 forecast for mortgage volumes by 27 percent.
But overall demand for mortgages increased last week, his trade group reported Wednesday. Loan applications from homebuyers rose 7 percent from the prior week.
Still, houses are still sitting on the market unsold for months. There were 292,000 new homes for sale at the end of May, down more than 2 percent from April. More than half have been on the market for almost a year.
The inventory of homes for sale "will remain enormous, particularly with increased competition coming from distressed sales of existing homes," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR Inc.
June 15, 2009
Pending Home Sales Up for Three Months in a Row
Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. "Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market," he said. "Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers."
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6 percent to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8 percent to 90.4 and is 11.1 percent above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2 percent to 93.0 in April but is 3.5 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8 percent to 94.8 but is 2.9 percent below April 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said there are numerous buyer assistance programs around the country. "Some states are offering bridge loans that allow first-time buyers to use the tax credit for downpayment and closing costs, but there are many other local government and nonprofit programs available to buyers, depending on location," he said.
"Just last week, HUD announced that qualifying buyers can use the tax credit for closing costs on FHA loans, to buy down the interest rate or make a larger downpayment. Buyers who are wondering about their options should contact a Realtor®, who can advise consumers on the housing assistance programs and resources available in a given area."
NAR's Housing Affordability Index is in record territory. The affordability index rose to 174.8 in April from an upwardly revised 171.9 in March, and was the second highest monthly reading on record after peaking at 176.9 in January of this year. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income; tracking began in 1970.
A median-income family, earning $60,900, could afford a home costing $296,800 in April with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of that amount. The affordable price was well above the median existing single-family home price in April, which was $169,800.
Yun cautions that the reporting sample for pending home sales is smaller than that of existing-home sales, so it is subject to greater variability. "In addition, the relationship between contracts on pending home sales and closings on existing-home sales is taking longer than in the past for several reasons," he said. "Mortgage processing time has increased, it is taking many months to close on those homes requiring short sales with lender approval, and some sales are falling through at the last moment."
The total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve but with dramatic local market variation in the timing of recovery. "The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline," Yun said.
Source: NAR
June 13, 2009
The Nation's Housing
WASHINGTON - Since first-time buyers are getting thousands of dollars in tax credits from the federal government to stimulate the economy, why shouldn't all homebuyers get equal treatment? And what about refinancers - couldn't they make good use of a tax credit to help defray closing costs and loan fees?
Whatever your thoughts on these questions, there is an effort underway in Congress to extend tax credits to anyone who buys a new or existing home in the coming year, with no income limitations. In one case, legislation would even create a new "temporary" $3,000 tax credit to help defray the costs of refinancing mortgages on principal residences.
Two Dallas area congressmen - one Democrat, one Republican - have introduced bills that not only would broaden the reach of the current housing tax credits, but would keep the program going until mid 2010 or the end of that year. The current credit expires Nov. 30.
Rep. Kenny Marchant, a Republican who represents the suburbs between Fort Worth and Dallas, is pushing a bill that would expand the current $8,000 federal credit to buyers of all houses, not just first-timers, through June 2010. The bill (H.R. 2619) would also create an unprecedented $3,000 credit to help offset "qualified refinancing costs" - closing fees, lender charges and the like - through next June.
In a statement, Marchant said his goals are to "jump-start new sales," "reduce the housing inventory" and "stabilize housing prices." As to the refinancing credit, he said the idea is to encourage owners "to take advantage of current low mortgage rates," cutting their monthly payments to stay out of trouble. The $3,000 refi credit could be used to pay for loan "points," other transaction fees, or to "put equity in their home if they're a little underwater."
Marchant's House colleague, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Democrat who represents downtown Dallas, has introduced the Home Buying Credit Expansion Act (H.R. 2606), which would extend the current credit through Dec. 31, 2010. The bill would also open the credit to all buyers of principal residences but would not provide any new tax incentives to stimulate refinancings.
The near-simultaneous introduction of tax credit expansion bills on Capitol Hill appeared to put the two most potent housing lobbies - the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders - into a political quandary.
On the one hand, any broadening of tax incentives for home-buying would be good news for their members.
On the other hand, any public perception that the expiration date for the current credit might be extended could cause some potential buyers to delay purchases. And if all would-be buyers might be eligible for some future federal tax credit, not just first-timers, large numbers of consumers might just stay on the sidelines waiting for that better deal to come out of Congress.
A spokesman for the National Association of Home Builders said the group "does not want anything that would stop the traction the current (tax) credit is now getting. We think it would be more appropriate to address (an extension or other changes) closer to the credit deadline" in the months ahead.
But Mary Trupo, public policy director for the National Association of Realtors, said her group of 1.1 million members sees it differently.
"We say, if (the credit) is working for first-time homebuyers, then why not for all buyers, with no income limitations? We would like to see the expiration date extended (beyond Nov. 30). Expanding the credit is really the way to stabilize the market, by making it available to everybody."
Trupo said first-time buyers accounted for half of all purchasers in March, up from one-third in January, and that increase is directly attributable to the tax credit.
The association has no hard estimate of what effect opening up the credit to all buyers would have on total sales. But Jed Smith, managing director for quantitative research, said earlier projections about the first-time buyer credit ranged into the hundreds of thousands of additional sales. Broadening the credit to all buyers would almost certainly push the total higher.
Where's this headed? Don't look for any immediate action on Capitol Hill. The legislative calendar is jammed, the budget deficit is at all-time levels, the summer recess looms, and neither of the tax credit bill sponsors sits on the Ways and Means Committee, which must originate tax legislation.
But later this year, you can bank on a significant push to extend the housing tax credit - and maybe changes to open it up to everybody.
June 6, 2009
News Flash
Pinellas County charts confirm sustained patterns of progress! Since Sept. 08, year-over-year sales clawed upward as listings continued their 24 month march downward. Should these significant trends carry on, we can expect this to be The Bottom. Foreclosures should wane as local U.S. Government Stimulus jobs help to mitigate them. For example, Scheduled for September: Major overpass & traffic projects on US19 from Gulf-to-Bay to Harn Rd. Once we return to a more normal market (1, 2, 3 yrs!?) perhaps our ol' friend Price Appreciation may even revisit. X'ed Fingers! We've all lost value in our homes but stats show we're turning a corner. With the current low loan rates, now could be your best break to upsize or downsize before the oncoming toxic twins of Inflation & HIGH loan rates show up.
The Langrocks - Helping America's economy grow...one house at a time
May 28, 2009
Home sales keep rising
The seeds of an eventual Tampa Bay area housing recovery could lurk in an April report that showed home sales rising for the eighth consecutive month.
After two years of nearly incessant monthly depreciation, home prices have stabilized in the past four months. The January-to-April pricing trend has people wondering if a real estate market bottom is finally solidifying.
The median sales price of a single-family home in the Tampa Bay area stood at $135,200 in April. It had been as low as $122,400 in January and as high as $135,800 in March. But the month-by-month price plunges of 2008 appear to have ceased.
Realtor Phyllis Crosby, a 30-year industry veteran who works for RE/MAX ACR Elite Group in Tampa, isn't surprised. She's observed a returning tide of investors attracted by low-priced foreclosure homes. In fact, investors, including consortiums of bargain seekers, account for about half of sales.
"Investors are better educated, they're using the Internet, going to real estate auctions, calling Realtors, getting lists of bank-owned properties," Crosby said.
They're also getting into bidding wars. In the past few months, investors have flocked to homes considered untouchable a year ago. Just this week, one of Crosby's clients agreed to pay $3,000 over the $90,000 asking price for a foreclosure house. He was outbid by several other would-be homeowners.
"Prices can't keep falling forever," Crosby said. "What's it going to go to? $29.95? Are we going to buy homes at Wal-Mart?"
Despite the respite in home depreciation, the year-over-year declines remain a tender spot. April's median home price of $135,200 represented a 23 percent drop from last year and a 43.6 percent drop from the $239,600 peak in June 2006.
Bank-owned sales have weighed like an anvil on the market. In Pinellas County, homes repossessed by banks sold for $70,050 in April, less than half of the proceeds of conventional home sales, the Pinellas Realtor Organization said.
That's helped stimulate sales, however. In every month since August, Tampa Bay area home sellers have closed more deals than they had a year earlier.
Single-family home sales in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties totaled 2,326 in April, up from 2,087 in April 2008, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Tampa Bay outperformed the rest of Florida, at least in terms of pricing. Fort Myers-Cape Coral suffered a 57 percent plunge in the past year. A typical Cape Coral home sold for $85,500, the lowest among the state's 19 metro areas.
Orlando's sales rose 38 percent year to year, nearly triple Tampa's sales increase, but in compensation prices fell 34 percent over that period.
Most economists tracking the housing market predict an L-shaped recovery in Florida and other states where housing supply outstripped demand. In other words, prices will crawl along the bottom for months or even years before appreciating again.
And the threat of further foreclosures still hovers over Tampa Bay and Florida, exacerbated by a local unemployment rate that's topped 10 percent locally.
"Because foreclosed properties will likely be released into the market over the rest of year, it is critical that distressed homes be quickly cleared from the market," said Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors.
"Fortunately, home buyers are being attracted to deeply discounted prices and are bidding up many foreclosed listings, particularly in California, Nevada, and Florida.
May 22, 2009
Hints of good news on homes
It's unsafe to call a Tampa Bay housing recovery without the presence of two good omens: Homes sales have to start rising. And home prices have to rise in tandem with sales.
For the past nine months the gods have smiled on home sales.
Measured year to year, sales have risen every month since August, thanks in part to investors buying foreclosure homes.
What has been lacking are signs that prices have stabilized after the housing market's three-year, 40-percent depreciation.
Until now.
Based on April home sales, we might be observing a price stabilization trend, particularly in Pasco and Pinellas counties.
From February to April, prices of homes sold conventionally - those unencumbered by foreclosure or mortgage defaults - stopped dropping. Prices have actually inched up in some places in those three months.
Assuming that trend is a statistical false start, Pasco County offers further proof that a price floor is materializing. Since February, homes sold via short sale - when a bank lets a homeowner sell for less than the mortgage debt - have collected almost the same prices as conventional sales.
Why is that significant? Short sales can take months to negotiate. Banks rarely write off such losses willingly. To compensate for the nuisance of lengthy negotiating, buyers of short sale homes expect a large discount.
But these days, at least in much of Pasco, banks are short selling for close to full market price. In February, Pasco short sale homes even fetched more than conventionally priced homes, $82 per square foot versus $79 per square foot.
What's that mean? Regular homes are priced so attractively that banks can't undercut them on short sales. Put another way, non-short sale homes are considered bargains if the alternative is months of short sale red tape.
Either way, it's a sign that prices for non-foreclosure homes probably won't fall much lower.
Pinellas shows much the same short sale phenomenon. In April, Pinellas short sale homes sold for 89 percent the price of conventional homes. Hillsborough County isn't so lucky. Short sale homes collect only 80 percent of conventional sales. The Tampa real estate company Home Encounter crunched all these numbers and predicted a "market rebound" in Pasco and Pinellas later this year. Alas, Hillsborough's higher per-square-foot prices will postpone a rebound for two years, according to Home Encounter.
For balance's sake, let's toss some cold water on our theory. After all, real estate folk have been hyping recoveries since 2006.
One hitch is foreclosure homes. Once banks repossesses a house, they've been selling the properties for little more than half the market price in Pinellas and Hillsborough. (Pasco is better off. Banked-owned homes are capturing about three-quarters the money of conventionally priced homes, lending more support to the theory that a recovery is near is that county.) Also keep in mind that Home Encounter's forecasts have suffered the slings of outrageous fortune. Last year it predicted Pasco/Pinellas real estate would mend in early 2009. Then came the financial crisis of September 2008. All bets were off.
But after three years in which home prices had as much traction as a bobsled after a freezing rain, it's a relief to think the runners could be skidding to a stop.
May 16, 2009
A bottom? You decide
.
At long last, we have the numbers we believe confirm a bottoming pattern taking place in Pinellas County even with distressed properties factored in. Eight straight months of year-over-year increased home sales began last September, and our all-important listing inventory has been drifting downward, and uninterrupted, since June of '07 (see chart), While these changes are slight, and can not be assumed to continue in a straight line, we can expect declining days-on-market and price stabilization, followed by
yes
property appreciation. We see this taking up to two years or so - hopefully sooner. However, eight straight months of traction gives hope for brighter days ahead, at least in Pinellas County.
As they say, "real estate is local", so when it comes to North Pinellas real estate, we hope our ardent market watching will help you to make better informed decisions.
Enjoy.
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
April 10, 2009
Insurance should match home value
Property values have dropped by a third since the pricing peak in summer 2006. So why haven't homeowner's insurance premiums free-fallen by a corresponding amount?
They have.
But you're going to have to give up delusions of grandeur about your home's real value. The fact is, many of us are overinsured.
We haven't factored in home devaluation.
The insurance increases we got socked with in 2006 had manifold causes: hurricane damage, future storm risk, giant insurers leaving the market, home price escalation, frivolous sinkhole lawsuits.
While we've still got a hurricane bull's-eye on our backsides, despite three years of relative calm in the Caribbean, there's plenty of give on home prices.
For starters, a home's value includes the price of the lot. Lot values range from a few thousand dollars in the orange-grove exurbs to million-dollar saltwater spreads in St. Petersburg and Clearwater.
If your house burns to the ground or collapses in a cyclone, the land probably isn't going anywhere. So why are you insuring it? (Sinkholes and coastal erosion are different matters).
If your home is flattened, rebuilding costs are lower. Labor accounts for most of the drop, but materials costs for things like steel should continue sliding this year.
If the thought of reducing insurance coverage leaves you feeling vulnerable, you can do what I did: split the difference. My home's value has dropped by $100,000 the past three years, but I compromised and trimmed coverage by $50,000. I'm still shielded from catastrophe but saved $500 a year in premiums.
Such policy tweaks reduced my annual premium from $2,100 to $1,400, a drop that mirrors the devaluation of Tampa Bay area the housing market.
Insurance agents may disagree with that strategy. Better to insure yourself to the hilt, they'll say. Values will rise again and you'll be underinsured.
But ask yourself one thing: If the real estate industry is deflating, why should property insurance soar like a big fat hot air balloon? The pin's in your hand. Pop it.
April 9, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
April 8, 2009
Mortgage applications rise
Weekly refinancing also sees an uptick.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. mortgage applications rose last week, as demand for home purchase loans jumped even as interest rates edged up from record lows, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
Demand for home purchase loans, an indicator of home sales, far outweighed demand for refinancing. The increase may help gauge what is in store for the hard-hit U.S. housing market this spring, the peak home buying season.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended April 3 increased 4.7% to 1,250.6.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree.com, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said home loan demand at his company has remained strong and steady over the last several weeks.
"In addition, the quality of the borrowers coming to us has remained high with high FICO scores and low loan-to-value ratios," he said on Tuesday. "This is an encouraging sign as responsible borrowers looking to purchase or refinance their homes are getting the help they need with low rate, high-quality loans."
FICO scores refer to borrowers' credit ratings.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.73%, up 0.12 percentage points from the a record low reached the previous week. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990.
Interest rates were well below year-ago levels of 5.78%.
"As rates remain at historic lows, we anticipate this trend will continue as more borrowers take the time to shop around for competitive rates on home loans," he said.
The U.S. housing market is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression and its impact has rippled through the recession-hit economy, as well as the rest of the world. Economists contend that the economy may not emerge from its slump unless the housing market stabilizes.
Low mortgage rates have generated demand for home refinancing loans and should continue to do so. Lower monthly payments provide a bit of relief to strapped consumers amid rising unemployment and a shrinking economy.
Until last week, the low rates had only a moderate impact on demand for loans to buy homes.
The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 11.1% to 297.7.
The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was up 13.3%.
Weekly refinancing activity rises
The Mortgage Bankers seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 3.2% to 6,813.5.
The refinance share of applications decreased to 77.9% from 79.1% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity was unchanged at 1.5%.
Fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 4.49%, up from 4.45% the previous week. Rates on one-year ARMs increased to 6.23% from 6.20%. Source: www.CNNMoney.com
March 26, 2009
Existing-Home
Sales Rise In February
Existing-home sales increased in February, reversing losses in January. Even so, sales activity remains relatively soft, reflecting additional layoffs and buyers waiting for housing provisions in the economic stimulus package to take effect, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.72 million units in February from a pace of 4.49 million units in January, but are 4.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit level in February 2008. Seasonal adjustment factors are more volatile in winter months, but sales rates over the past few months show dampened sales activity.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with activity concentrated in lower price ranges. "Because entry level buyers are shopping for bargains, distressed sales accounted for 40 to 45 percent of transactions in February," he said. "Our analysis shows that distressed homes typically are selling for 20 percent less than the normal market price, and this naturally is drawing down the overall median price."
The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $165,400 in February, down 15.5 percent from a year ago when the median was $195,800 and conditions were close to normal; the median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. "Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it's important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn't equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition," Yun explained.
Yun said a recovery in the West is much stronger than expected. "Strong sales gains in the West are led by California, where the median listing price is beginning to rise for the first time in three years," he said.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said home shopping activity has picked up with housing affordability at a record high. "The number of buyers looking for homes rose 5 percent in February, and also was 5 percent above a year ago," he said. "It appears most of the increase in buyer traffic occurred in the latter part of the month after the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit was put in place. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications have risen, so we expect to see sales picking up around late spring."
McMillan noted that more potential buyers are learning about the tax credit, just as the traditional spring home-buying season begins. "In this changing market, smart buyers and sellers consult with Realtors® who can advise them about current conditions in their area, and counsel them on the best way to move forward," he said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.13 percent in February from a record low 5.05 percent in January; the rate was 5.92 percent in February 2008. Last month's average mortgage rate was the second lowest since data collection began in 1971. Last week the rate further declined to 4.98 percent.
Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.7-month supply3 at the current sales pace, unchanged from January. In the six months prior to February, the total number of homes for sale had steadily declined from a record level last July.
Single-family home sales rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.23 million in February from a level of 4.05 million in January, but are 3.6 percent below the 4.39 million-unit pace in February 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $164,600 in February, down 15.0 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in February from 440,000 units in January, but are 13.1 percent lower than the 564,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $172,200 in February, which is 18.7 percent lower than February 2008.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 15.6 percent to an annual pace of 740,000 in February, but are 14.9 percent below February 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $251,200, down 4.8 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 1.0 percent in February to a pace of 1.04 million but are 14.0 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $131,000, which is 7.8 percent below February 2008.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 6.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in February but are 11.2 percent below February 2008. The median price in the South was $146,700, down 10.0 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West increased 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.20 million in February and remain 30.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the West was $204,600, which is 30.3 percent below February 2008. Source: The National Association of Realtors®
March 20, 2009
Lower your mortgage payments!
This week the Federal Reserve announced a trillion dollar program that included $300 billion dollars for the purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates immediately dropped between Œ and œ percent with expectations of even lower rates to follow - perhaps as low as 4%?!
Log-on to the website below and take a quick first step to see if you are eligible. Learn About Making Your Home Affordable
Refinancing
Modification
Please use the self-assessment tools provided on this website to see if you are among the
March 18, 2009 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics 2009 February Single Family Sales - Price Class Analysis
March 17, 2009 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
March 1, 2009 Price break plus tax break equals bargain BY JAMES THORNER
This is a fantastic time to buy a house - especially a foreclosure.
It's a terrible time to buy a home, the naysayers claim. They cite the uncertain job market, the threat further home price declines, the plundering of retirement accounts.
At the risk of raining brimstone on my head, I'll take the opposite view. Home buyers enjoy three discounts that might not survive 2009: a foreclosure discount, a tax credit discount and an interest rate discount.
Let's start with a typical $180,000, three-bedroom, two bath home for sale in almost any city or suburb around the region.
Foreclosure houses - repossessed by the bank or soon to arrive at that dismal destination - have been selling for about 75 percent of the price of regular homes. The market is rich with such bargains. So let's take 25 percent - or $45,000 - off the top of that $180,000 home. That makes $135,000.
We'll move on to the $8,000 federal tax credit for first time home buyers. The government defines that as someone who hasn't owned a primary residence in the past three years. And the beauty of the tax credit is that you won't have to pay it back. But to get the $8,000 you have to buy a house by Dec. 1.
Take that $8,000 off the $135,000. We're down to $127,000. So far, so good.
We still haven't added in the interest discount. Rates have fallen to historic lows. This week you could get a 30-year fixed mortgage for about 5.2 percent, as long as your credit's good and your job pays enough. That's a point lower than rates from 2006, when Tampa Bay area home prices peaked. Economists predict rates will rise next year as the economy recovers.
Shaving off that point saves you about $1,000 a year on your loan. Assume you'll live in the house six years. That's close to the average stay in these parts. That's an additional $6,000 to subtract.
So that's $180,000, minus $45,000 for the foreclosure discount, minus $8,000 for the tax credit discount, minus $6,000 for the interest rate discount.
Our home price is down to $121,000, a tad below the Tampa Bay area's median sales price for January.
Not a bad deal.
February 22, 2009 Stimulus plan offers taxpayers a variety of breaks: what they mean to you
The stimulus plan that President Obama has signed into law contains a few tax treats for individuals. But before you jump for joy, please pay close attention to the details so you know exactly which provisions can benefit you, and how.
One of the biggest breaks being trumpeted is a new $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit. I say "new" because some believe it completely replaces the $7,500 tax credit passed as part of last year's Housing and Economic Recovery Act. It does not.
There are two breaks for first-time homeowners in the tax code now. Which credit you can take depends on when you purchased your home.
If you're a first-time home buyer and you purchased your home on or after April 8, 2008, and by Dec. 31, 2008, you do not qualify for the $8,000 first-time home buyer's credit recently signed into law by Obama.
You can still take the $7,500 tax credit, but you have to pay that back because it's not really a credit. It's a 15-year, interest-free loan from the IRS.
The $8,000 tax credit is available for qualifying home purchases made from Jan. 1, 2009, until Dec. 1, 2009. Did you notice I wrote Dec. 1? That's how it's worded in the law.
At least the $8,000 is a true credit, that is, if you don't plan on moving within three years. A tax credit is much more valuable than a deduction. A credit reduces dollar for dollar the amount of tax you owe. A deduction merely reduces the amount of your income that is taxable.
If you are still not sure which first-time homebuyer credit you qualify for, call the IRS. You don't want to end up owing money on a loan you thought was a credit.
Here are several other tax breaks passed into law:
One more thing, please note that many of the tax breaks in the stimulus plan only apply for your 2009 tax return - not the current tax filing season.
February 12, 2009 Florida's existing home, condo sales rise in 4Q 2008 ORLANDO, Fla. - Feb. 12, 2009 - Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 13 percent in fourth quarter 2008 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 30,163 existing homes sold statewide in 4Q 2008; during the same period the year before, a total of 26,635 existing homes sold statewide. It marks the second consecutive quarter that Florida has reported higher existing home sales; sales activity rose 5 percent in 3Q 2008 compared to the same period the previous year, according to FAR.
Florida Realtors also reported a 3 percent gain in statewide sales of existing condominiums in the fourth quarter compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the first three-month period that has noted increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.
Twelve of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the fourth quarter compared to the same three-month-period a year earlier, while eight MSAs showed gains in condo sales. A growing number of local markets have reported increased sales activity over the past few months, according to FAR.
The statewide existing-home median sales price was $161,200 in the fourth quarter; a year earlier, it was $216,600 for a decrease of 26 percent. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), there remains a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.
To gain insight into current trends in Florida's real estate industry, the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. According to the fourth quarter 2008 survey, respondents' increasing concerns about the economy have dampened the investment outlook for various types of properties.
However, one positive sign is the recent dramatic increase in refinancing with the availability of 5 percent mortgage rates in mid-December, according to Dr. Wayne Archer, center director. If additional programs are put into place that create 4.5 percent Federal Housing Administration mortgages for people who have difficulty making payments, he said, it will do even more to stabilize the housing industry.
In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 8,374 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 8,098 in 4Q 2007 for a 3 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $136,400 for the three-month period; in 4Q 2007, it was $190,400 for a decrease of 28 percent.
Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.86 percent in 4Q 2008; one year earlier, it averaged 6.23 percent.
The outlook for housing and the economy remains clouded despite improved affordability conditions, according to NAR's latest industry forecast. "For a sustainable housing market recovery and, thus a sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. © 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Foreclosures fall from Dec to Jan WASHINGTON (AP) - Feb. 12, 2009 - The number of Americans on the verge of losing their homes fell in January but was still up from the same month a year ago. The numbers would have been higher if not for efforts to stall the foreclosure process.
Nationwide, more than 274,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month. That was down 10 percent from December, but still 18 percent higher than a year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure listing service based in Irvine, Calif. Ohio's foreclosure rate put it in the top 10 states.
Contributing to the monthly drop was a decision by government-controlled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosure sales during the winter holidays. Plus, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist brokered a deal in which lenders in that state agreed to a 45-day halt to new foreclosure petitions.
But those efforts may not have much of an impact in the long run.
"If you don't do anything to get to the core problem, all you're doing is extending the housing downturn," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing. "It's only a good idea if there's a corresponding program that dramatically restructures hundreds of thousands of loans."
Meanwhile, a federal regulator on Wednesday urged more than 800 thrift institutions to suspend all foreclosures while President Barack Obama's top economic officials develop plans to keep borrowers in their homes.
The Obama administration plans to spend $50 billion to combat foreclosures of owner-occupied, middle-class homes but is divulging few details. An announcement of the administration's housing plans is expected in the coming weeks.
Testifying before House lawmakers on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the government would provide incentives to "try to induce economically sensible restructuring of mortgages," but offered no specifics.
More than 2 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, and that number could soar as high as 10 million in the coming years, according to a report last month by Credit Suisse, depending on the severity of the recession.
The RealtyTrac report said nearly 67,000 properties were repossessed by lenders in January as the worst recession in decades, falling home values and stricter lending standards continue to sap the U.S. real estate market. That was up from more than 45,000 repossessed properties in January 2008, but down from 79,000 in December.
Geithner and Shaun Donovan, the new secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, met with officials from housing and other nonprofit groups, top bank executives and industry lobbyists Wednesday to hear proposals for how the new programs to fight foreclosures should be structured.
After the meeting, John Taylor, chief executive of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a consumer group in Washington, said he was optimistic the new administration would agree to use government dollars to buy up mortgages and remove them from complex mortgage-linked securities and restructuring them at more affordable levels.
He said support from government and industry officials for that idea was a "giant step forward" compared with opposition to such an approach by the Bush administration.
The Obama administration is also expected to back a push in Congress - opposed by the mortgage industry - to let bankruptcy judges alter the terms of primary home loans. Earlier this week, Obama said it "makes no sense" that judges are not allowed to do so. The mortgage industry argues that this prohibition allows lenders to charge lower rates.
In the RealtyTrac report, Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida had the nation's top foreclosure rates. In Nevada, one in every 76 homes received a foreclosure, while the number was one every 173 in California. At No. 5, Oregon, formerly a bastion of housing stability, made its first appearance close to the top of the list of foreclosure hot spots.
Rounding out the top 10 were Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Idaho and Ohio. Ohio had one foreclosure notice for every 452 homes, but January filings were down slightly from December and down 12 percent from a year earlier. Among metro areas, Merced, Calif., was first, with one in every 59 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing. It was followed by Las Vegas and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida.
On the Net: RealtyTrac Inc.
Florida economy: Housing stabilizing as everything else slides
TAMPA - Feb. 12, 2009 - Hank Fishkind, traditionally one of the more optimistic Florida economists, has changed his tune.
The Sunshine State won't hit the bottom of this recession until 2010 and won't see strong positive growth until 2011 or 2012, he told the Bay Area Real Estate Council on Wednesday.
This time last year, he told the group that the area was months away from the bottom of the housing downturn and that prices weren't expected to fall further.
"I was wrong," he said Wednesday. "I didn't see this financial crisis coming."
The state is in the worst recession since 1975, he said, and it won't get better overnight. The good news: Homes sales already have hit bottom, and prices, while still declining, are beginning to stabilize, he said.
That, though, is not enough to improve Florida's economy, he said.
"The thing that caused the problem is stabilizing, and everything else is going to hell," Fishkind said.
Florida, because of its reliance on tourism, can't improve until the rest of the nation does, he said.
Also, fewer people are moving to Florida. For example, Pinellas County's population decreased by 5,738 in 2008, he said. Hillsborough County gained 7,680, but that's down from an increase of more than 30,000 in 2007.
People who would relocate here can't sell their homes up north, and many who do move are choosing other states such as North Carolina. For that, Fishkind blamed impact fees and property taxes.
This year will bring more layoffs and additional foreclosures, said Fishkind, who doesn't expect home prices to fall much further. "Prices are finally low enough," and demand is up, he said.
Moody's Economy.com predicts prices will continue to fall until at least the third quarter and possibly into 2010.
The upside of down prices is that home sales rose more in December than any month since the downturn began, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Sales jumped 16 percent over the same period in 2007. Prices, however, fell 27 percent to a median sales price of $145,700.
Copyright © 2009 Tampa Tribune, Fla., Shannon Behnken. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
February 11, 2009
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
February 7, 2009
Below is another sign of the real estate market slowing turning towards the positive. While we still have a long slog ahead, fortunately there are now a number of initiatives in the pipeline which give real hope for an improved housing market. If events continue this way, we expect that beginning sometime in the next few months the decline in sales will finally cease, followed by a cobbling together of consecutive monthly statistics confirming a housing bottom. We'll most likely remain there until the record inventory decreases and returns, albeit slowly, to normal levels. During that period days-on-the-market should decrease, eventually lowering inventory, and placing the beginnings of upward pressure on prices. This will all take time but once sellers can sell, then they can buy, and the market grows in geometric progression.
If you are interested in the latest data both locally and nationally, continue to return to this Market Updates page. We may at last be at the place our Sunshine State license plate proudly states:
February 3, 2009 Pending Home Sales Show Healthy Gain Pending home sales increased as more buyers took advantage of improved affordability conditions, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Big gains in the South and Midwest offset modest declines in other regions.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, rose 6.3 percent to 87.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 82.5 in November, and is 2.1 percent higher than December 2007 when it was 85.9.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the index shows a modest rebound. "The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month," says Yun. "The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability."
NAR's Housing Affordability index rose 10.9 percent in December to 158.8, the highest on record.2 The HAI shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.
"Significant uncertainty still clouds the housing market despite improved affordability conditions. For a sustainable housing market recovery and, hence, sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers," adds Yun.
PHSI Regional Breakdown
NAR: Housing Stimulus Needed
NAR President Charles McMillan, says the rise in contract signings is encouraging.
"However, housing activity remains weak compared with potential demand, and the market is fragile given the economic backdrop," he says. "We can't take our eye off the need to stimulate housing, which can set the foundation for an economic recovery."
Last week's actions in the House to eliminate the repayment feature on the first-time home buyer tax credit, and to raise mortgage loan limits, are a helpful step in the right direction, McMillan says.
"However, we need to take additional steps to meaningfully draw down inventory and stabilize home prices," he says.
McMillan says some enhancements that could bring more buyers into the market include expanding the $7,500 tax credit to all home buyers and extending it until the end of 2009, and making loan limit increases permanent.
"We also need to direct funds in the Troubled Asset Relief Program to add liquidity to the mortgage market, buy down mortgage interest rates and increase other forms of credit," he says
Yun says the outlook for housing and the economy is murky. "Although Congress and the Obama administration are taking steps to help the economy, the stimulus package must deal with the root cause of the economic downturn, and apply the right fix to turn it around. If housing is ignored, a significant downward overshooting of home prices would continue to drag the economy down independent of the scale of the stimulus," Yun says. Source: NAR
January 27, 2009 Below is an article which shows another sign of movement in the real estate market. Although minor and mixed, sales are finally maintaining small increments of increase. Price appreciation, albeit small, should follow once inventory is reduced which we believe is at least 1-2 years out. Homes cheap, so sales are up Most local sales are of bank-owned or other cheap properties.
BY JAMES THORNER 1/27/09
December marked the fourth month in a row in which home sales improved in the Tampa Bay area.
The long-awaited rebirth of the housing market? More like buyers feasting on a glut of foreclosure homes. Cheaply priced properties, many of them bank-owned, constitute a disproportionate number of local sales.
From December 2007 to December 2008, closings rose 16 percent, from 1,597 to 1,857, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Median sales prices headed in the opposite direction. Year over year they plunged 27 percent, from $199,800 to $145,700.
The December sales picture across Florida was similar: Sales up 27 percent, prices down 27 percent. Buyer activity increased last month in 16 of 20 Florida housing markets. Gainesville, Tallahassee, Pensacola and Punta Gorda were the exceptions.
Tampa real estate broker Jim Knetsch of RE/MAX ACR Elite Group said foreclosures make up close to half of sales in some areas. Most of the purchasers are bargain-hunting investors with ready cash.
He expects a further wave of foreclosures to hit the market as banks find agents to list homes they've already repossessed. Until more homesteaders appear to suck up the surplus, Knetsch expects home prices to remain strained.
"It's just a race to the bottom right now," Knetsch said. "Where the bottom is, I don't know."
Florida Realtors also wrapped up their sales report for the whole of 2008. In the Tampa Bay area, 23,615 homes sold last year at a median price of $169,580. In 2007, 24,310 homes sold at a median price of $208,900.
Local home prices have crashed 39 percent since topping out at $239,600 in June 2006. It's not just foreclosures driving the decline. Buyers also are purchasing smaller homes. That skews statistics to make it look as if individual homes have lost more value than they really have. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, is asking the government to inject more into a housing stimulus, including a nonrefundable tax credit, to buff up what he fears could be a lackluster spring buying season.
Mortgage rates for borrowers with good credit hover just over 5 percent. That's rock bottom by historical standards. But lenders generally are demanding higher down payments. As unemployment crosses 8 percent in Florida, fewer buyers have that sort of cash on hand.
"The market is still far from normal balanced conditions," he said. "Buyers will continue to have an edge over sellers for the foreseeable future.
January 7, 2009 | Daily Real Estate News | Realtor.com 10 Tips for Generating Buyer Interest Distraught sellers who need to generate more interest in house that has been languishing on the market for months should consider 10 steps from MSNBC financial guru Laura T. Coffey
January 6, 2009 Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
December 31, 2008 30-year mortgage rate falls for ninth straight week to new low CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for the ninth week in a row this week, setting another record low, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Wednesday.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.10% for the week ending Dec. 31, down from 5.14% last week and 6.07% a year ago. The mortgage rate hasn't been lower since Freddie Mac started the Primary Mortgage Market Survey in 1971. The survey covers conventional, conforming mortgages.
Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also fell, averaging 4.83% this week, down from 4.91% last week and 5.68% a year ago. The mortgage hasn't been lower since March 25, 2004, when it averaged 4.70%.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.57%, up from 5.49% last week. The ARM averaged 5.78% a year ago. And 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 4.85%, down from last week's 4.95%. The ARM averaged 5.47% a year ago.
To obtain the rates, the 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and the 5-year ARM required payment of an average 0.7 point. The 1-year ARM required payment of an average 0.5 point. A point is 1% of the total mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.
"Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for the ninth straight week and represented a third consecutive all time record low since Freddie Mac's survey began in April 1971," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a news release. "Since the end of October of this year, these rates have declined by about [1.33] percentage points, or payment savings of approximately $173 a month for a $200,000 loan," he said.
"As a result, the number of refinance applications for conventional mortgages jumped over 500% between the weeks ending on Oct. 31 and Dec. 26," Nothaft said. According to MBA's weekly survey, overall mortgage applications were up 155% last week, compared with the same week in 2007.
Lower rates and falling home prices are making homeownership more affordable, Nothaft said.
"For instance, house prices fell 18% over the 12-month period ending in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. Every city posted a second consecutive month of decline in October. From its peak set in July 2006, the composite index is down 23.4%," he said.
December 24, 2008
Any news of even the slightest change in the direction of our real estate market gives us hope. The below St. Pete Times article gives us some evidence, albeit hard and cold facts, that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and, thankfully, it is not a train. All of us homeowners are in the same situation; the only difference is degree. And, while we're not yet where we all want to be, we do have hope, in this season of hope, that our real estate values will indeed improve - they shall.
Home sales up as prices sink
With bargain-priced foreclosure properties enticing wary buyers, home sales in the Tampa Bay area rose again in November. The Florida Association of Realtors recorded 1,701 single-family home sales last month compared with 1,644 a year earlier. That 3 percent gain in the number of sales was helped by a 21 percent drop in home prices. The bay area's median sales price last month was $149,800, the first time local prices have broken into the 140s since April 2004. About a third of home sales in the region qualify as distressed, meaning the properties are bank-owned or teetering toward foreclosure. The big-foreclosures-equals-brisk sales formula was even more pronounced in Cape Coral-Fort Myers. The annual price plunge there was 53 percent. Fort Myers' homes sold for a median price of $106,100 compared with $228,000 a year earlier. In Punta Gorda, a typical home sold for $97,700 in November. That marks a return to 1999-2000 prices. If there's a positive side, the number of sales in Fort Myers soared 64 percent year to year.
Statewide, sales inched up 4 percent in November on the back of a 27 percent plunge in prices. Nationally, home sales fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49million in November. U.S. prices retreated 13 percent, the biggest year-to-year drop since 1968. In a separate report from the Commerce Department, new home sales fell 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000 in November. It was the weakest performance for new homes since the early 1990s. National Association of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun used the occasion to push for further federal stimulus. Absent government subsidies to boost sales and "unclog the mortgage pipeline," falling prices could curtail consumer spending and drive up foreclosures, Yun said.
"Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery," he said. JAMES THORNER St. Petersburg Times
December 19, 2008
30-YEAR FIXED RATE FALLS TO AT LEAST A 37-YEAR LOW
Below is a real estate report that gives homeowners hope for better days ahead. This is a bright spot in a market that has had overwhelmingly dark news.
If you would like to know more about this opportunity to refinance or obtain new home loan, contact us, or even better, call the owner of Landmark Mortgage, Alan Rotz. From his Clearwater office Alan can quickly tell you over the phone your new, low monthly principle and interest payments. His number is 727-712-9200. - Tell him the Langrocks & their pugs sent you. McLean, VA - Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.19 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 18, 2008, down from last week when it averaged 5.47 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.14 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started the Primary Mortgage Market Survey in 1971.
Click the link below to read more:
http://www.freddiemac.com/dlink/html/PMMS/display/PMMSOutputWk.jsp?week=51&ending=20081218
December 9, 2008
Pending Home Sales Holding In Stable Range
WASHINGTON, December 09, 2008
Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September, and is 1.0 percent below October 2007 when it was 89.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a review of the past year is instructive. "Despite the turmoil in the economy, the overall level of pending home sales has been remarkably stable over the past year, holding in a generally narrow range," he said. "We did see a spike in August when mortgage conditions temporarily improved, which underscores two things - there is a pent-up demand, and access to safe, affordable mortgages will bring more buyers into the market."
Conditions remain uneven around the country, but some areas that are showing healthy gains in pending home sales from a year ago include many Florida and California markets, Providence, R.I.; Lansing, Mich.; Oklahoma City; and Las Vegas. ²
The PHSI in the South jumped 7.8 percent to 95.9 in October but remains 2.9 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast the index rose 0.6 percent to 68.1 but is 14.1 percent below October 2007. The index in the Midwest declined 4.3 percent to 79.7 in October and is 6.8 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index fell 8.7 percent to 103.7 but is 17.4 percent higher than October 2007.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he's hopeful about considerations by the U.S. Treasury. "Efforts to bring down mortgage interest rates demonstrate a clear understanding of the role housing plays in stabilizing the economy," McMillan said. "We're very encouraged by all of the proposals getting serious consideration in Washington to help home buyers. More sales will stabilize home prices by bringing down inventory, and would lessen foreclosure pressure."
Yun expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract through the first half of 2009, then stabilize and expand in latter part of the year - lifted by a home sales recovery. "Given the critical role of housing in an economic recovery, we're confident sufficient stimulus will be offered to bring more buyers to the market," he said.
Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast to total 4.96 million this year, and then increase to 5.19 million in 2009 and 5.55 million in 2010.
New-home sales for 2008 should total 486,000 this year, decline to 393,000 in 2009 and then grow to 446,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are projected at 934,000 units in 2008 and 731,000 next year before rising to 772,000 in 2010.
"Price projections are challenging in an environment with so many variables and divergent local conditions," Yun said. "The home price correction to date has brought prices in line with fundamentals, but buyer pessimism could cause prices to overshoot downward, resulting in further economic deterioration."
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably decline to 5.6 percent in the first quarter, rise slowly to 6.0 percent by the end of 2009, and average 6.2 percent in 2010. NAR's housing affordability index is likely to remain quite favorable, averaging 138 in 2009.
The unemployment rate is estimated at 7.2 percent in the first quarter, rising to 8.3 percent by the end of 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 0.7 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2009. ¹The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
²Market information is from unpublished snapshot data; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.
Existing-home sales for November will be released December 23; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on January 6.
December 9, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
December 9, 2008
Wanted: tax breaks, lower rates, bigger loans for buyers
BY INMAN NEWS, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2008.
With President-elect Obama calling for Congress to stimulate the economy by passing the biggest public works bill in 50 years -- and the Bush administration signaling likely agreement on a bailout for automakers -- the real estate industry remains determined to get its own slice of the government assistance pie.
The National Association of Home Builders and about 100 other groups representing builders and manufacturers have formed a coalition, Fix Housing First, that's put together a list of demands from Congress including more generous tax breaks for home buyers.
Also, real estate broker Lennox Scott of John L. Scott Real Estate has co-authored a housing stimulus position paper that calls for, among other things, ditching the $625,000 loan limits going into effect Jan. 1 for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Housing Administration loan guarantee programs. Scott says the programs should be able to fund loans all the way up to 125 percent of the median home price, whatever that may be in a given market.
Scott's proposal has the endorsement of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, a U.S.-based real estate industry group formerly known as RELO that encompasses 700 real estate companies with 5,500 offices and 170,000 sales associates around the globe.
In a radio address over the weekend, President-elect Obama took a different tack, promising to create "millions of jobs" by "making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s." The plan will provide states with money to invest in roads, bridges, schools and technology.
Obama's plan sounds not unlike one put forward by New York University economist Nouriel Roubini this fall. Roubini -- who's taken more seriously these days than when he first foresaw a housing downturn that would have serious repercussions for the economy -- has said the stimulus bill passed by Congress in February failed "miserably."
At a hearing in October, Roubini urged Senate lawmakers to get behind a $300 billion to $400 billion stimulus package that would ramp up government spending on roads, sewers and other infrastructure, green technologies, unemployment benefits and tax rebates for lower-income households. At the same hearing, Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management, said a stimulus package of about $450 billion spread over three to four years is needed.
Although Obama didn't put a price tag on his plan, he did say that the measures he talked about Saturday were only "a few parts of the economic recovery plan" he will roll out in coming weeks.
Meanwhile, a Bush administration spokeswoman said Monday that legislation that would provide $15 billion for troubled automakers "is moving more towards what the president could support."
Some steps already taken in support of housing markets, such as placing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conservatorship and new FHA programs intended to help troubled borrowers refinance into more affordable loans, could end up carrying a big price tag if housing markets continue to deteriorate.
In addition to promising up to $200 billion in support for Fannie and Freddie, the government is providing relief to mortgage markets by buying up $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae. Congress has also approved a $700 billion troubled asset relief program, which the Treasury Department has so far used to prop up banks.
By comparison, some housing industry proposals sound relatively modest.
The National Association of Home Builders and other members of its "Fix Housing First" alliance say Congress should increase the current $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers to 10 percent of a home's sale price, and make it available for all purchases of primary residences through the end of next year.
By capping the credit at 3.5 percent of FHA loan limits for a given market, the credit wouldn't exceed $10,000 to $22,000. But unlike the existing tax break, it would have to be repaid only if the home were sold within three years, and would be available at closing to put toward a down payment.
The Fix Housing First Alliance also wants a stimulus package to bring 30-year fixed-rate mortgages down to 2.99 percent on sales closed by June 30 and to 3.99 percent on closings between June 30 and Dec. 31.
The National Association of Realtors, which supports a temporary government interest-rate buy-down program, has estimated that each 1 percent reduction in interest rates gives buyers 10 percent additional purchasing power and can generate 500,000 or more sales.
Lennox Scott, in a position paper co-authored with Erik Hand of Response Mortgage (John L. Scott Real Estate's mortgage partner), called on Congress to repeal limits going into effect Jan. 1 on mortgages purchased, guaranteed or insured by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.
Congress in February temporarily raised the limit from $417,000 to a maximum of $729,750 in some high-cost markets; the limits are scheduled to return to no more than $625,500 on Jan. 1.
The secondary mortgage market collapsed in August 2007, and today 85 percent of all lending is done through Fannie, Freddie and FHA, Scott and Hand said. The only way to offset the loss of the private mortgage market, they said, is to expand the availability of government agency and FHA loans.
Congress should allow loan limits to go all the way up to 125 percent of the median sales price, with no additional restrictions on borrowers, they urged.
High-cost areas "should not be denied access to mortgage products just because of the higher cost of housing in these areas," Scott and Hand said. Opponents of raising the loan limits say the ability of Fannie, Freddie and FHA to provide support to mortgage markets is not infinite, and that priority should be given to helping low- and moderate-income families purchase homes.
In their paper, Scott and Hand question whether a loan at the $417,000 conforming limit in a "normal" market like Dallas is any riskier than a bigger loan in a high-cost market, when the conforming loan limit is nearly three times the median sales price in Dallas.
Scott and Hand also advocate keeping the first-time homebuyer tax credit at $7,500, but say those who claim the credit shouldn't have to pay it back -- a gesture they estimate would cost the government $18 billion in lost revenue.
They also recommend establishing a federal down-payment assistance program similar to those available at the state and local level. The program would provide down-payment assistance of up to 3.5 percent of a home's purchase price to borrowers who have not been homeowners in the last three years when purchasing a home with an FHA-insured loan.
Such a program is needed, they said, because many state and local housing agencies that normally would be able to provide down-payment assistance can't obtain financing because of disruption in credit markets.
Editor's note: An earlier version of this story stated that Realogy Corp. is a part of the Fix Housing First alliance. While Fix Housing First listed Realogy among its supporters, a company spokeswoman said Realogy is not a part of this alliance.
November 27, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
Single Family Listing and Sales Comparison by Unit
October 24, 2008
Daily Real Estate News - October 24, 2008
Existing-home sales increased last month as buyers responded to improved housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 5.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million units in September from a level of 4.91 million in August. Home sales are 1.4 percent higher than the 5.11 million-unit pace in September 2007.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more markets are seeing year-over-year gains.
"The sales turnaround which began in California several months ago is broadening now to Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and Rhode Island," he says. "The South was hampered by much lower home sales in Houston in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike."
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says low home prices and low interest rates have helped attract buyers.
"This is the first time since November 2005 that home sales have been above year-ago levels," Gaylord says. "Credit tightened at the end of September, but the improvement demonstrates that buyers who've been on the sidelines want to get into the market to make a long-term investment in their future."
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.04 percent in September from 6.48 percent in August; the rate was 6.38 percent in September 2007.
Yun says there may still be market disruptions.
"The credit markets are not settled yet, although the mortgage market stabilized with the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Yun says. "Inventory remains high, and price declines are pressuring owners."
Yun says that an additional housing stimulus would stabilize prices more quickly and help bring faster stability to Wall Street.
"Removing the repayment feature on the [$7,500] first-time buyer tax credit and permanently raising loan limits would bring more buyers into the market and further reduce inventory," Yun says.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
"Compared to a fairly small share of foreclosures or short sales a year ago, distressed sales are currently 35 to 40 percent of transactions," Yun says. "These are pulling the median price down because many are being sold at discounted prices. The current market is not being dominated by speculative investors. Rather, 80 percent of current buyers are purchasing a primary residence, which is a bit higher than historic norms."
By Region
Here's a breakdown across the country of existing-home in September:
October 17, 2008
Too many houses, too few people to fill 'em
James Thorner - St. Petersburg Times, October 17, 2008
Let's distill the housing crisis down to its barest essence: The United States built millions more homes than there were families to fill them.
Economists have dubbed this surplus the housing "overhang." And we in Florida - forgive the pun - have one of the nation's worst hangovers.
Statistical confirmation comes from the census. Among major metros, the Tampa Bay area ranked second in home vacancies in 2007 at 5.1 percent, almost triple the empty homes just two years earlier. Orlando was tops at 7.4 percent. Don't look for 2008 to bring any improvement.
Need more proof? Two years after Tampa builders started applying the brakes, we've still got about 35,000 homes, new and used, jamming the "For Sale" listings. That number has been almost impervious to improvement, thanks in part to all the foreclosures feeding the glut.
It wasn't so much that the building industry miscalculated the nation's housing needs. It was that investor-purchasers, buoyed by cheap money, intervened to distort the market. But if your population fails to spin off sufficient new households, who's going to relieve investors of their poorly timed purchases?
Ridding ourselves of this housing overhang has grown increasingly problematic.
This is the year the first big wave of baby boomers - those turning 62 - are retiring. Florida expected to lure a portion of them from their wintry hovels.
Unfortunately, these boomers' departure from the work world coincided with a recession, credit crunch and stock market meltdown. Not exactly prime time to up and relocate to the sunny strands of St. Petersburg.
Home prices probably won't rise substantially for another two or three years. It's part of our continuing penance for overindulging in 2005.
The real estate market will be ready to catch the next wave of boomer retirees in 2011, when they start turning 65.
Maybe this time around we'll build houses people actually need.
October 10, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
October 9, 2008
Distressed sales constitute big chunk of Tampa real estate market
James Thorner - St. Petersburg Times, October 9, 2008
What percentage of today's home sales locally are "distressed sales?" By distressed we mean properties owned by the bank or being sold for less than mortgage value by delinquent homeowners.
You might be surprised by September's numbers: About a third of Hillsborough County's home sales are either bank sales or short sales. In Pinellas it's 22 percent, in Pasco 29 percent.
But you can pull more insights from the data: Distressed sales are clearly dragging down overall home prices. Bank sales, for example, collect only about two-thirds of what conventional sales do.
But for those 70 percent or so of homes that sell conventionally, prices have been, considering the times we're in, fairly decent.
I get the numbers from Home Encounter, a Tampa real estate consulting firm. Here's a copy of their latest "distressed sale report:" Download homeencounter_distressed.doc
I like Home Encounter's practice of measuring home values by price per square foot. It helps smooth out potential median price distortions created by a surge in sales of cheaper, smaller houses.
Mining deeper into the data, I noticed that Pasco County's short sales fetch 93 percent of the price of normal sales. That suggests that Pasco's prices are getting closer to hitting bottom. Home Encounter predicts that will happen as early as February 2009.
That doesn't mean prices will start rising again. It simply means that prices will flat line for a while. Prices can only drop so far. When you reach the point where homes are selling for their construction costs - and mortgages reach parity with rents - you've reached the turning point.
Home Encounter insists Hillsborogh prices won't bottom until 2010, and short sale prices offer a clue as to why. In Hillsborough, short sale properties sell for 84 percent of the price of conventional properties, suggesting the county hasn't felt the full drag from distressed sales.
September 10, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
September 6, 2008
House been on the market for months? Try these tips.
Judy Stark
Nobody wants to buy your house. It has been on the market for, oh, nine or 10 months or more now and you've had scarcely a nibble. This is getting old. What to do? Some real estate agents around Tampa Bay were asked how to jump-start your sale. Here's their advice.
Lower the price.This may not be what you want to hear, but "that's the No. 1 issue, provided you have overcome any other detriments," said Deborah Farmer of StarLight Realty in Tampa, president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. A house that's been sitting on the market for a long time "has price issues."
"The houses that are selling are the houses that are priced properly," said Carolyn Kling of Tierra Verde Realty in Pinellas, past board chairwoman of the Pinellas Realtor Organization.
That means a house that is priced "back around the 2003-04 pricing," Kling said, not the loop-de-loop crazy pricing of 2005-06, before the bottom dropped out of everything. The median price of single-family homes listed on the Pinellas MLS this year has been in the range of $175,000 to $180,000, comparable to 2003. Condos are hovering around 2005 levels, from $152,000 to $176,000.
"It's a buyer's market," Farmer said. "It had been a seller's market for five years, but five years does not a tradition make. It was fun while it lasted."
Get your agent to run new comps- comparable sales - and pay attention. Pay for an independent appraisal and see what a third party thinks your house should sell for.
Be honest: Have you already taken your profits?Did you take out a home equity loan to remodel the kitchen or redo the master bath? Those were your profits. You need to adjust your expectations accordingly.
Look at the competition.Do you still have stars in your eyes about how wonderful your house is compared with others? Put in some shoe-leather time this weekend. Visit open houses in your neighborhood. See what's selling for what. "Get yourself some price reality therapy," says Alma James Alexander of Coldwell Banker Residential in Tampa.
Don't forget the basics. If your home has been on the market for a long time, it may be time to refresh and renew. What do those flowers out front look like after a long, steamy, wet summer? Have the weeds taken over? Are you sure the cat box doesn't smell? Maybe you do need to repair that rotted wood at the bottom of the garage door. Maybe you've put off painting the living room as long as you can. The home you want to move out of is somebody else's move-up, and it should look like a step up, an appealing improvement over where that potential buyer lives now.
Twelve percent of respondents to a Coldwell Banker survey said they knew the house they bought was "the one" even before they stepped inside. After visiting just once, that figure rose to 51 percent. Three out of four said the quality of a home was more important than the square footage.
Get your agent to post new pictureson the Multiple Listing Service and rewrite your home's description highlighting whatever you've done to change the home's appearance. "Hit the refresh button," Alma James Alexander recommended.
Take it off the market.Some buyers think if they pull their house off the market and relist it a few months later, they can fool agents or buyers into thinking it's a new listing, not one that has been gathering dust. Don't kid yourself. A good agent will look through the MLS archive and find that it's a relisting.
That said, if you don't absolutely need to sell, get out of the game. And if the house needs a new kitchen or new carpets, make those improvements and enjoy them for a few years, then sell. Why do all that work and make the house look fabulous so somebody else can enjoy it?
Or consider renting the house. It might help your cash flow and might convert to a sale.
Be realistic about how long it will take to sell.In July, of the 15,507 active listings of single-family homes and condos in the Hillsborough MLS, 12,723 had been on the market 270 days or longer. You have lots of company. Languishing on the market is the norm, not the exception. Average days on market in Hillsborough is 118, which may sound like a lot, but it's the lowest since 2007.
Consider all your alternatives.Some panicky sellers think a short sale is the only answer - selling the house for less than they owe on it. But lenders don't want all those homes. They may be willing to rewrite the loan, or tag on the interest at the end. Maybe a reverse mortgage is the right choice. Or maybe you need to bring some cash to the table, paying some of the closing costs or buying down the buyer's interest rate, to close a deal.
Fast facts
Quick fixes
Ed Del Grande, "Ed the Plumber" from HGTVpro.com, offers these quick tips to get your home ready to sell.
- Install an "eco-performance" showerhead. These sleek-looking, high-quality, high-performance heads add an inviting look to your shower. The big surprise is that they use 30 percent less water than a standard showerhead, while delivering a strong spray. Seeing is believing, so turn it on.
- Add gutter extensions to your downspouts. They divert the water about 4 feet from your foundation, so most of the water runs off into the property grading instead of forming puddles around the foundation.
- Install insulating pipe sleeves. Presplit and preglued insulating pipe sleeves can be installed easily on just about any exposed hot- or cold-water line. They save energy on hot-water lines and cut down on pipe sweating for cold ones. A home without pipe insulation is like wearing shoes with no socks.
- Install plastic wall anchors in exposed picture-frame holes. Many homeowners simply bang a nail or screw into standard drywall to hang a picture. In most cases, this will damage the drywall. Plastic-anchor kits allow you to insert the anchor into the drywall hole, giving it an instant finished look with more strength. When the photo or painting is removed and potential buyers see the professional finished look of the anchor kit, that will be the true work of art.
- Add a transition seat to your toilet. It accommodates adults and children in one sleek seat. It consists of three layers, the first being the lid. Picking up the lid reveals a child seat that every mother falls in love with. Picking up the child seat reveals the standard adult seat. The complete seat is raised when the adult seat is in the up position. This toilet seat truly does "double duty." You can find these starting around $40.
Fast facts
Low, low prices gone for good
If you're a potential buyer sitting on the fence, waiting for the reappearance in the housing market of the 1,500-square-foot home priced at $95,000, get off the fence and forget it. We won't see those again in our lifetime.
That's the judgment of a roomful of homebuilders who gathered for a roundtable recently presented by the Builders Association of Greater Tampa.
Why not? Rising prices, the builders said. They've just been notified that the cost of a yard of concrete, now $90, will increase by $25. The prices of shingles and drywall are rising.
In January, new building codes will require that homes be 15 percent more energy-efficient. That will require better windows and higher-rated air-conditioning systems, which are more expensive. Add in impact fees, which start around $10,000 per home, and you do the math.
"The cost of a home is not going to go down; it's going to go up," said David Pelletz, Tampa division president of Standard Pacific Homes. Land prices are about as low as they can go, he said, "but the bricks and sticks we put on those lots cost more."
"You're not going to see further price declines," Pelletz said. "Nobody's going to build a house they can't make money on."
August 26, 2008
Tampa Bay area home bargains lift sales
By James Thorner, Times Staff Writer
Beefed up by bank sales of foreclosure properties, Tampa Bay area home sales rose 5 percent in July, a positive trend mirrored in 11 of 20 Florida metro areas.
Sales in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties totaled 2,174 in July vs. 2,068 in July 2007, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.
It was only the second month since November 2005 that local housing activity improved year over year. Sales rose 1 percent in May.
If sales are showing signs of stability, prices haven't halted their slide. The median price of a single-family home dropped 18 percent, from $215,600 in July 2007 to $176,500 in July 2008.
National trends weren't all bad, either. Across the country, sales of existing homes rose 3.1 percent from June to July, about twice the rate economists expected.
"The process of a recovery has begun," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "It's not going to be short and swift, but it's begun nonetheless."
Desperate sellers, including banks stuck with repossessed property, did their part to lower overall home prices. Economists estimated foreclosures or distressed properties account for about a third of sales.
With thousands of homeowners continuing to default on mortgages, it's hard to predict when housing will return to normal growth, University of Florida economist David Denslow said. "The unusual thing is how many foreclosures there are compared to previous housing cycles," Denslow said.
Other Florida metro areas showing July-to-July sales gains include Fort Myers, Lakeland, West Palm Beach, Punta Gorda, Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach. Sales tumbled in Miami and North Florida metro areas like Gainesville and Pensacola.
The latest housing numbers
August 18, 2008
Lower Your Home Insurance!
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August 15, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
Pending Home Sales Rise, Wider Gains Anticipated as Buyers tap Housing Provisions
Some improvement is projected for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with broader gains seen by the fourth quarter as buyers take advantage of new provisions provided through the recently passed housing stimulus bill, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 84.5 in May, but remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range. "The vacillation of data from one month to the next indicates a housing market in transition," he said. "The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009."
The PHSI in the South jumped 9.3 percent to 92.4 in June but is 16.6 percent below June 2007. In the West, the index rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in June but remains 1.7 percent below a year ago. The index in the Northeast increased 3.4 percent to 79.6 but is 15.4 percent below June 2007. In the Midwest, the index rose 1.3 percent in June to 79.6 but is 13.3 percent below a year ago.
Sales gains have been consistently strong in recent months in Sacramento, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Ft. Myers, Fla., where affordability conditions have greatly improved.² The pickup in contract signings appears to be broadening with many affordable markets in mid-America now showing year-over-year gains, including Columbus, Ohio; Charleston, W.V.; Oklahoma City; and Colorado Springs, Colo. Pending sales have fallen significantly in Texas markets and in the Pacific Northwest - two regions with very strong local economies.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. "Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the economy should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit," he said.
"These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future," Gaylord said.
With roughly 2.5 million first-time home buyers taking advantage of the temporary tax credit, existing-home sales are likely to rise 7.0 percent to 5.51 million in 2009 from a expected total of 5.15 million this year.
Yun said home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter. "Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices," he said. " In addition, rising commodity prices and higher construction costs have resulted in a very unusual market today with existing-home prices being less than replacement building costs in some areas. Home prices are projected to increase 3 to 6 percent in 2009."
"Builders need to further cut production to help trim inventory. However, new-home sales are expected to bottom around the second quarter of next year with slight gains in the second half of 2009," Yun said. New-home sales are forecast to drop 8.8 percent to 464,000 in 2009 from 509,000 this year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should fall 8.8 percent next year to 795,000 from 960,000 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been vacillating, is likely to trend up to 6.5 percent by the end of 2008, and then hold at that level for most of next year. NAR's housing affordability index is forecast to remain favorable this year, averaging 13 percentage points higher than in 2007.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.5 percent in 2008 and 6.0 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 4.1 percent in 2008 and 2.6 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009.
The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
###
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
²Market information is from unpublished snapshot data; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.
Second quarter metropolitan area home prices and state home sales will be published August 14. Existing-home sales for July will be released August 25; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released September 9.
Source: NAR
July 12, 2008
You CAN Sell Your Home
Click: Strategies for Sellers
July 9, 2008
Latest Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics:
Existing-Home Sales Show Modest Gain
Sales of existing-home sales increased in May with buyers responding to lower home prices, NAR says.
Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - increased 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units in May from a level of 4.89 million in April, but are 15.9 percent below the 5.93 million-unit pace in May 2007.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says buyers are seeing value in the current housing market. "Home buyers are starting to get off the fence and into the market, drawn by drops in home prices in many areas and armed with greater access to affordable mortgages," he says. "Today's buyer plans to stay in a home for 10 years, which is a good strategy for building long-term wealth."
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $208,600 in May, down 6.3 percent from a year ago when the median was $222,700.
Housing Inventories
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there's still a lot of inventory in the market. "The large supply of homes on the market clearly favors buyers, and it should take several months to draw the inventory down," he says. "Stabilization in home prices can only occur with buyers returning to the market, so we are encouraged by rising home sales, particularly in distressed markets. Foreclosures and short sales appear to be a larger part of the market, particularly in California, and are creating a drag on current home prices."
Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 1.4 percent to 4.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2-month supply in April.
Sales Activity Picks Up
Although conditions remain mixed around the country, unpublished snapshot data shows a number of areas are experiencing much higher sales activity than May 2007, including Sacramento, the San Fernando Valley and Monterey County in California; Sarasota, Fla.; and Battle Creek, Mich.
"Keep in mind that the volume of home sales is the primary driver of economic activity that is tied to housing," Yun says. "It'd be premature to say the improvement marks a turnaround. The market is fragile, so a first-time home buyer tax credit and a permanent raise in loan limits would be important steps to get the housing engine humming."
Single-family home sales rose 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.41 million in May from 4.34 million in April, but are 14.5 percent below the 5.16 million-unit pace in May 2007. The median existing single-family home price was $206,700 in May, which is 6.8 percent below a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 5.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in May from 550,000 in April, but are 24.6 percent lower than the 769,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $223,400 in May, down 2.1 percent from May 2007.
By Region
Here's how existing-home sales fared across the country:
Source: NAR
June 11, 2008
Real Estate Trending in Right Direction Locally
by The Langrocks
If you peruse the below Listing and Sales charts, you will graphically see our listing inventory trending to its lowest level in two years, along with home sales tracking upward every month of 2008. While these numbers are not yet where we all want them to be, they are a significant bridgehead that suggests we are heading in the right direction, and the long awaited recovery may indeed be under way. Now is a great time to buy
and the best time to sell in a long while. June 10, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
June 2, 2008
Lower Your Home Insurance!
Florida's My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program has provided more than 172,000 free wind inspections to Floridians, more than 70 percent of whom saved an average of $224 - without making a single improvement - because the report confirmed that some mitigation already existed and their current insurer dropped the rates. For more information, visit www.MySafeFloridaHome.com or contact the program toll-free at (866) 513-6734.
May 30, 2008
Buyers Stay Away as Home Prices Overcorrect
By James Thorner, Times Staff Writer
You're approaching your destination along the interstate. You have a choice of three exits to reach the city.
You skip the first two exits, confident the third is the most convenient. But as you take your eyes off the road to consult a map, the final exit slips away in the rear-view mirror.
An increasing number of economists are drawing similar conclusions about the prospects of a housing market recovery.
They're using words like "overshoot downward" or "overcorrect." What they mean is that potential home buyers, glum where they once were giddy, are content to be sideline sitters.
Maybe they want to wring every cent from home sellers. Maybe they're content to rent. The effect is the same: The recovery is postponed, less for reasons of supply and demand and more for reasons of mass psychology.
There are good reasons to house hunt. Tampa's median home price has plunged 26 percent from the peak in June 2006. Our median-priced home of about $170,000 is roughly three times local family income. Such a ratio is financially sound.
Those numbers come from the Florida Association of Realtors. Want a second opinion? The S&P/Case Shiller home index says prices have fallen 23 percent from a peak in July 2006. Some of the most bleak prognosticators predict a home price trough 30 percent below peak. We're most of the way there.
On the downside, recession fears sap buyer confidence and make renting more appealing. Though mortgage rates are low, banks are tight with terms.
You can deflate bubbles too much. Markets aren't always rational. While they hash things out well in the long run, in the short run they're often candidates for the funny farm.
May 7, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
April 17, 2008
Flickers of hope with Tampa Bay area's housing market?
By James Thorner, St. Petersburg Times
Our housing slump has marked its two-year anniversary. Those of us invested in real estate - let's say the vast majority of us - keep our eyes peeled for that flicker of a recovery that becomes a glimmer that becomes a glare.
April 9, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
Existing-Home Sales Rise in February
Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million units in February from a pace of 4.89 million in January, but remain 23.8 percent below the 6.60 million-unit level in February 2007. The sales pace has been in a fairly narrow range since last September.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the gain is encouraging. "We're not
expecting a notable gain in existing-home sales until the second half of this year, but the improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing," he says. "Buyers taking advantage of higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional mortgages will unleash some pent-up demand. As inventories are drawn down, prices in many markets should go positive later this year."
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $195,900 in February, down 8.2 percent from a year earlier when the median was $213,500. Because the slowdown in sales from a year ago is greater in high-cost areas, there is a downward pull to the national median with relatively fewer sales in higher priced markets.
Source: NAR
March 17, 2008
Breaking News!!
The Taxation and Budget Reform Commission has voted to place on the November ballot a proposal that will cut property taxes by more than 25%! It will be offset partially by an increase in the sales tax of 1%. This, at long last, is the "substantial" tax reform we were promised:
March 7, 2008
Substantial Property Tax Relief!
Panel sends competing property tax cut plan to full commission March 7, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
February 26, 2008 SAME SAD TALE IN HOME SALES But the free fall may be ending, experts say ... and hope.
Tampa Bay area home sales have spent two years grasping for a ledge to arrest the plunge into the canyon.
The bad news? Better stock up on more picks and ropes: January home sales in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties fell by 24 percent from a year earlier. Prices slid 15 percent in the same interval.
The good news? The regional plunge to the bottom may be nearly over.
Home sales totaled 1,235 last month in the three counties, the Florida Association of Realtors said. That's 24 percent below the 1,627 homes that sold in January 2007 and 59 percent below peak January sales of 2,995 in 2005. Reflecting a glut of more than 40,000 houses and condos for sale on the market, median home sales prices declined from $220,100 to $187,100 the past year.
But insiders like Deborah Farmer of Star Light Realty are starting to detect a possible path out of the depths. She's president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, which shed about 1,200 members the past year.
Economic trends suggest local home sales are bottoming, Farmer said, and last month's voter approval of property tax reform will cut the cost of homeownership.
"I talk to 100 Realtors a week, and 90 percent of them are going, 'Yeah, we're picking up,' " Farmer said.
The Tampa Bay housing market didn't take the worst beating in January. Miami, Orlando, Daytona Beach and Jacksonville all had steeper sales declines.
And evidence from the housing market to our south suggests our home sales descent could cease this year.
Sarasota-Bradenton home sales rose 4 percent from January 2007 to January 2008, stopping what had been a half-year slide in year-to- year sales. Sarasota's housing downturn started in the first half of 2005, at least six months before the bubble burst in Tampa.
As for a home price recovery, expert opinion is less optimistic. Housing boom prices exceeded rents and incomes so much that a few years of stagnation are in order, said University of Florida economics professor David Denslow.
"Look at San Diego and other boomtowns," Denslow said. "In those places you have six to seven years of declines followed by six to seven years of boom. That could become our pattern."
Pasco County had the worst year-over-year homes sales decline at 28 percent. It was followed by Pinellas at 25 percent and Hillsborough at 21 percent. Tampa Bay area:
Florida:
Source: Florida Association of Realtors
February 9, 2008 NAR Hails Passage of Stimulus Bill The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® congratulated the U.S. Congress for quickly passing a national economic stimulus package and thanked President George W. Bush for his leadership and willingness to promptly enact legislation that will help thousands of families, the housing market, and the U.S. economy.
"We believe the economic stimulus bill that Congress sent to the president today is strong legislation that will quickly impact the nation's families and economy," said NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif. "We are pleased that both the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) loan limits have been increased, even if only temporarily. This will be a major stimulus for the housing industry and for people who want to own a home."
Increasing FHA loan limits will help an additional 138,000 Americans achieve the dream of homeownership and will allow nearly 200,000 homeowners to refinance and potentially keep their home, according to NAR research. In addition, NAR believes that increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bolster the severely stressed housing finance market by immediately infusing much needed liquidity into the nation's mortgage market. "While such an increase will not solve the full range of housing challenges, it will play a vitally important role in improving the nation's economy and making the dream of homeownership more attainable for thousands," said Gaylord.
An economic impact study conducted by NAR earlier this month estimated that increasing the GSEs' conforming loan limits would result in as many as 500,000 refinanced loans and could help reduce foreclosures by as much as 210,000. In addition, over 300,000 additional home sales could be generated, housing inventory would be reduced and home prices would be strengthened by two to three percentage points. "These are real results and will have an immediate and sustainable impact for families across our country," said Gaylord. Source: NAR February 8, 2008 NAR: Existing home sales to hold in narrow range then trend upward WASHINGTON - Feb. 7, 2008 - A continuation of soft market conditions is forecast for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. "Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines," he says. "Existing-home sales have moved narrowly since last September, but when the full impact of higher loan limits for conventional mortgages begins to impact the market there is likely to be a notable rise in home sales and prices. If higher limits are enacted very quickly, we'll see a faster and more meaningful recovery by expanding safe, affordable financing in high-cost areas - that, in turn, would help to stimulate overall economic activity."
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, slipped 1.5 percent to a reading of 85.9 from a downwardly revised index of 87.2 in November, and was 24.2 percent below the December 2006 level of 113.3.
"We're seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly," Yun says.
The PHSI in the Midwest rose 3.4 percent in December to 84.9 but is 17.3 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index slipped 1.7 percent to 68.9 and is 26.0 percent lower than December 2006. The index in the South fell 3.0 percent in December to 96.4 and is 27.0 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index declined 3.1 percent in December to 83.9 and is 24.1 percent below December 2006.
Existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009. The aggregate existing-home price should decline 1.2 percent in 2008 to a median of $216,300, and then rise 3.2 percent to $223,200 in 2009.
"Areas with a high prevalence of subprime lending will continue to feel downward price pressure. Where builders have cut construction sharply, and in most areas with improving affordability conditions, we'll generally see moderately higher home prices," Yun says.
Current housing conditions vary widely. Preliminary data shows rising home prices in areas such as Rochester, N.Y.; Charleston, W.V.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; and Albuquerque, N.M. Fourth quarter metro area median existing-home prices, showing changes in approximately 150 markets, will be released February 14.
New-home sales are likely to decline 17.7 percent to 637,000 in 2008 before rising 7.6 percent to 685,000 in 2009. "Builders will further lower new home construction throughout this year and into 2009 to bring inventory under control," Yun says. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are estimated to fall 20.1 percent to 1.08 million this year, and decline another 1.3 percent to 1.07 million in 2009. The median new-home price is expected to fall 4.3 percent to $236,300 in 2008, and then increase 5.0 percent in 2009.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise slowly to the 5.9 percent range in the fourth quarter, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. "Affordability conditions are anticipated to rise 14.2 percent this year, permitting more people to become homeowners, but buyers should avoid aggressive lenders and not over-stretch to enter the market," Yun says. NAR's housing affordability index is expected to rise from 113.0 in 2007 to 129.0 in 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at 2.2 percent in 2008 and 2.7 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate should rise to 5.4 percent in the second half of 2008 before averaging 5.2 percent in 2009.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 2.7 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.7 percent in 2008 and 3.5 percent next year.
© 2008 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
February 7, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
January 31, 2008 Your Amendment 1 Tax Reduction:
(If you do not have your Just Market & Assessed values readily available, contact us if you would like and we'll get them to you promptly.)
January 30, 2008 Amendment 1 Passes - Significant Tax Reform Fails
A quote we read and heard most often during the run-up to the vote was, "It's better than nothing." In fact, nothing may have actually resulted in something...possibly the "significant property tax reform" promised us by our leaders in Tallahassee. Most likely, if the amendment failed, the Legislature would have been pressured to take another look at Florida's inequitable tax structure. The spotlight of the media and the public on their deliberations may have caused a more sober, focused, and fair evaluation of our property taxes, resulting in the "significant property tax reform" they pledged.
Amendment 1 did give some benefits, but honestly, they were mostly small, and mostly to those whose tax bills were already artificially lower than the rest. Let us hope this was a tax reform start, and not a finish. Property tax relief is needed for all property owners: second home buyers, Snowbirds, investors, commercial property owners, and especially recent homebuyers who are paying substantially higher property taxes for the same size home as their next door neighbors. We all benefit from a fair tax system. And, significant reform should have a positive impact on both real estate sales and property appreciation.
It is still, however, prudent to harbor concern. We need to encourage, and may have to demand, our legislative leaders to rekindle efforts that will produce significant reform because Amendment 1 did not resolve the true core issues of our ailing tax system. It did not remove from Florida's horizon the looming tax crisis. It is indeed real and we cannot ignore it, for it is strengthening and heading directly our way.
The Langrocks January 25, 2008
Daily Real Estate News | January 24, 2008
January 9, 2008
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
December 30, 2007
St. Petersburg Times editorial on Amendment 1:
December 28, 2007
Significant Property Tax Reform Alternative
The recent boom years of real estate brought us wonderful appreciation along with excessively high property tax bills. Our elected leaders in Tallahassee acknowledged the property tax crisis and promised, "significant property tax reform". Unfortunately, we feel their proposed tax reform amendment on the January 29th ballot falls far short of significant tax reform for the following reasons:
The "doubling" of the homestead exemption to $50,000 is not completely forthcoming in that the school property taxes are excluded. They account for roughly 40% of each property tax bill. That makes the "additional $25,000 exemption" actually only a $15,000 exemption meaning the significant relief is about $240 a year, or $20 a month. As for Portability, it allows homeowners to take with them to a new home their accrued Cap benefit. This savings is subsidized, however, by other homesteaded property owners, and more so by: recent home buyers, owners of second homes, vacation homes, investment properties, and business property owners. The $25,000 exemption on tangible personal property is a small benefit for businesses which will also be subsidized but by all property owners. The same goes for the 10% cap on non-homesteaded property which is basically a non-benefit since the cap is so high, it will be quite rare to reach the threshold.
Certainly some relief is better than no relief but these are merely tweaks of relief that avoid the root cause of our property tax crisis. It is a fact that the problem is not the doubling of tax revenue which now flows into government coffers since 2000 rather it's the government spending of this entire windfall. If this is addressed in a thoughtful, fair manner, property taxes will surely be lower while still maintaining important services.
A comprehensive solution may not be far off. A grass roots citizen driven constitutional amendment is at hand. While it may not be perfect, it does target the core problem of the property tax crisis.
If you would like to learn more, view the video below; it addresses significant property tax reform. Then do the math to discover your new property tax. If you think it is fair and comprehensive tax reform, and desire to help make it become a reality, simply sign the petition that will offer up for a vote this citizens' initiative for a significant property tax reform amendment. It's a long shot but
. Whatever you decide, you'll be more educated and more focused for fair and true property tax reform.
- If you would like to know your assessed value, contact us and we'll look it up for you -
St Petersburg, Fl - December 11, 2007 - Today, Cut Property Taxes Now announced that it has joined forces with Blaise Ingoglia, who has put on numerous government waste seminars in Hernando County, to produce a YouTube video designed to inform residents of it's citizen's initiative to amend Florida 's constitution. The grassroots organization is proposing to limit the amount of taxes collected on real property to 1.35% of the taxable value. Speaker of the House Marco Rubio, who has been a leader in pushing for property tax reform, has supported this citizens' initiative to cap property taxes at 1.35% of taxable value The video, which was produced in Hernando County by Instant Images, highlights the current state of the economy; the proposed constitutional amendment; examples of tax savings; and the steps needed to make sure there is "significant" tax relief for everyone. The organization plans to tap into the power of the internet to disseminate its' message quickly and efficiently in order to meet the required 611,009 petitions needed to place the proposed constitutional amendment on the November 2008 ballot. Blaise Ingoglia, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Hartland Homes, Inc, a homebuilder in Spring Hill, produced government waste seminars in the weeks prior to the final budget hearings in Hernando County. These seminars, with the help of Hernando Tax Payers Alliance, produced record turnouts at both the preliminary and final budget hearings. The efforts forced the County Commissioners to cut the budget an extra $6 million over and above that which was required by the State Legislature. Residents are urged to visit http://www.youtube.com/cutpropertytaxesnow. You may need to register with YouTube. It is free and only requires an e-mail and a password. Residents are also urged to visit www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com for more information. Paid political advertisement paid for by Cut Property Taxes Now, Inc. 610 South Boulevard, Suite 100 , Tampa , FL 33606
December 12, 2007
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
December 11, 2007
NAR: Worst is over - existing-home sales to trend up in 2008
WASHINGTON - Dec. 11, 2007 - Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. "The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming," he says. "Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels."
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive monthly gain, but still 18.4 percent below the October 2006 index of 106.8. "The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007," Yun says.
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 16.0 percent in October to 80.6 but is 11.1 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index rose 8.4 percent to 87.3 but is 16.9 percent lower than October 2006. The index in the Midwest slipped 1.4 percent in October to 85.5 and is 11.7 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index dropped 7.8 percent in October to 91.6 and is 25.3 percent below October 2006.
"The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo loans," Yun says. "Lawmakers need to understand that raising the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans will markedly improve mortgage availability."
Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in 2008.
"Home price growth in the vast affordable midsection of America will help raise the national median existing-home price slightly in 2008. I then expect price appreciation to return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one or two percentage points above the rate of inflation," Yun says.
"Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price this year, it's important to keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the metro areas in the U.S. are showing price increases," he said. "The apparent disparity results from fewer sales in high-cost markets, so a change in the mix of sales is dragging down the national median home price."
Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. "We can't emphasis enough how much local conditions vary, even within a given area, so it's important for consumers to make decisions based on local market conditions."
New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; no sustained improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because builders have correctly adjusted production, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably total 1.36 million this year and 1.16 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year. The median new-home price is projected to drop 3.0 percent to $239,100 for 2007, and then decline another 0.2 percent to $236,600 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to rise slowly to the 6.4 percent range by the end of 2008, with additional cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest rates.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate last year; GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.4 percent in 2008.
The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent for 2007, unchanged from last year, but rise to 5.0 percent in 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 2.8 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2008, down from 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 3.1 percent this year, the same as in 2006, and then grow 2.2 percent next year. © 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
November 10, 2007
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
November 8, 2007
Below is the latest market information from the National Association of Realtors for your perusal: The Long View 11/8/07
"How much have real estate investors lost due to the housing market bust?"
That was the (highly loaded) question posed to me recently by a producer of one of the major evening news programs. The show wanted to run a story about the "pains" being felt in the market.
Hmm. Well, exactly how much real pain are we talking about? Let's look at a couple of examples. An investor who bought a property in Las Vegas five years ago would be ahead by $150,000; up $200,000 in Miami. The average investor nationwide - up $54,000. Only the recent buyers (flippers) who bought last year in few specific markets would have encountered a loss. Not All Losses Are Created Equal
A Home is Not a Stock Certificate -- Thank God!
Because of the power of leveraging, $10,000 used for a down payment on a typically priced home in the United States at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent will return $110,000 after 10 years. The same $10,000 invested in the stock market appreciating 10 percent annually will result in $23,600. No wonder the data from the Federal Reserve show consistent results year-after-year of the staggering difference in net worth between homeowners and renters. A typical homeowner had $184,400 in net worth versus only $4,000 for a typical renter. The Spooky Thing
Opportunities to Seize
As for stocks, they are not the enemy of real estate. Many REALTORS® own stocks. (So do many economists!) The latest NAR research on vacation-home buyers reveals that many of them rely on stock market wealth to fund that second-home purchase. Stocks and real estate both promote the importance of private ownership. Where to Throw the Darts
October 10, 2007
Latest Real Estate Statistics:
October 1, 2007
We believe a good attitude is essential to our business relationships as well as a healthy life and world. Everyone benefits from a good attitude.
"The longer I live, the more I realize the impact of attitude on life. Attitude, to me, is more important than past, than education, than money, than circumstances, than failure, than successes, than what people think or say or do. It is more important than appearance, giftedness or skill. It will make or break a company...a church...a home. The remarkable thing is we have a choice every day regarding the attitude we will embrace for that day. We cannot change our past...we cannot change the fact that people will act in a certain way. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the one string we have, and that is our attitude.... I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% of how I react to it. And so it is with you...we are in charge of our attitudes." -Anonymous Hope you enjoy! September 12, 2007
Current Market Conditions - As we see it:
Everyone is aware of the challenging real estate market both nationally and locally. But did you know that here in Pinellas County we may be in for a change? A change for the better? We believe so, and here's why.
The two main culprits have been too many listings and too few buyers. There are multiple opinions as to why but there is no escaping the stunning fact that Pinellas County began 2007 the same way it slogged through the forth quarter of 06, i.e., a record number of listings hovering around 10,000 to 11,000. In April, however, listings finally did drop significantly from the previous month (8%) and has continued to hold steady in the lower 9,000 range (August: 9141 - see Listings Chart). This five month correction may be the long awaited market turnaround albeit slow one. While we do not expect a return to the white-hot, "Golden Days of Real Estate" - five record years in a row from 2001 to 2005 - we do expect a more balanced market if two more events take place: buyers begin even a modest return this fall, and the vote for a Super Homestead Exemption passes in January 08. Add these to the legislator's Tax Reform plus two year rates freeze on our state run Citizens Property Insurance, and at long last it may generate some good press from the newspapers and other media. That in turn will nudge more buyers into the market. May the momentum begin! That's the way we see it.
Choose your formula: Or simply B = S (Buyers = Sales) Latest Real Estate Statistics:
 Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization August 25, 2007
August 12, 2007 Latest Real Estate Statistics:
July 11, 2007 Latest Real Estate Statistics:
June 15, 2007 Insurance: Govenor Charlie Crist signed into law a two year rates freeze on state run Citizen Property Insurance. This will encourage other insurance companies to be more competitive. Taxes: The legislator quickly completed the long awaited June special session addressing property tax relief with a pincer approach. Help is on the way! The following is an overview best articulated by the Florida Association of Realtors: Special Session on Property Tax ReformBoth the House and Senate passed three bills making up the property tax reform package. The package includes:
The agreement consists of a two-tiered approach to achieve immediate relief and long-term reform. The combined elements of the plan offer $31.6 billion in tax relief over the next five years -- touted as by far the largest tax cut in the history of Florida. 1. The Statutory Component - Immediate Tax ReliefCities and counties must lower their tax rates a certain percentage based on their past taxing conduct. This component of the plan offers $15.6 billion of tax relief over five years, with savings beginning this year. The statutory component affects all properties (including homestead, non homestead, commercial) in a postive manner.
2. The Constitutional Component - Long-term ReformThe constitutional amendment cures the inequities in the property tax system by transforming Save Our Homes through a new "super" homestead exemption. The new exemption covers 75% of the first $200,000 of homestead value and 15% of the next $300,000, with all homesteads receiving at least a $50,000 exemption. Current homestead owners will be given a choice as to whether to keep their benefits and assessment cap under Save Our Homes or to use the new super exemption. The bill also authorizes a $25,000 Tangible Personal Property exemption and allows targeted relief for affordable housing, low-income seniors, and working waterfronts. This component offers $16 billion of tax relief. 3. The Special ElectionThis bill authorizes a special election for #2 above - the Constitutional Component. Voters will have the opportunity to adopt the proposed constitutional amendment during the presidential preference primary on January 29, 2008. If voters approve the amendment, it will lower property tax bills in 2008. We hope this update helps bring you up to speed. Log on anytime to our website for the latest in real estate updates and trends.
June 1, 2007 At long last, the insurance crisis is stabilizing. The legislature froze the state run Citizens Property Insurance rates for two years which will cause others to lower rates. That's a start. Next, the tax crisis will be addressed at the legislature's June special session. This is a complex issue and deserving of such attention. Currently, there are three major proposals on the table, one by the House, the Senate, and our new Governor, Charlie Crist. Others are percolating; look for more. While no plan will bring us back to the good ole days, Florida will be in better shape on the other side of this special session. Taxes will be less; it's simply a matter of degree. The many buyers sitting on the sidelines awaiting concrete resolution of both these huge issues will then finally jump back into the market and begin buying, again. We're half way there. Opportunity knocks! This moment is a rare window and an excellent time to explore options. Many great values await the astute buyer before things completely resolve and a more balanced market returns. A little history: Prior to 2000, real estate sales nationally averaged around 3.5 million units per year. Five record years in a row culminated in property sales topping 7 million in 2005. The "slow" market of 2006 very quietly became the third highest year on record with 6.3 million units sold. Oddly, the news media made little of this fact. The market does, however, feel different because of the high record number of listings available. This classic supply/demand scenario creates longer Days-on-the-Market, and a softening of prices, but there is no bubble-a-bursting, rather it's a needed pause, breather, correction. And, with 600-700 people moving to Florida daily, a more balanced and stronger market isn't far off. You may access the same MLS as the local real estate agents right here on our site. Just click Search The MLS link in the blue on the left side of our site area below the words HALL of FAME. Only real-time Active Listings appear. If you prefer, we can also e-mail you what is currently on the market. And, check out Real Estate News updated daily, mortgage calculator, free Buyer/Seller Tips, and more. For further information or clarification, just call or e-mail us, your real estate consultants. Until next time happy real estating!
Predictions for 2007
Top 10 Predictions for Home Buyers & Sellers in 2007
From Elizabeth Weintraub,
What Will Happen to the Real Estate Market in 2007?
Everybody wants to know where real estate is headed in 2007. Will prices continue to fall as they have in most areas of the country or will the American market rebound? Will interest rates remain stable? Will 2007 be a good time to buy or sell real estate or should we all head down to Mexico instead and check out Donald Trump's Baja resort south of Tijuana? Based on current market forecasts and real estate economic facts and trends of 2006, here is my professional home buying and selling prediction for next year.
(1) More Single Women Will Buy Homes Than Ever Before
(2) Home Prices Will Remain Soft
(3) Agents Will Negotiate Record Numbers of Counter Offers
(4) Buyers Will Pass By Overpriced Homes
(5) Buyers Will Demand Upscale Features
(6) Sellers Will Hire Home Stagers
(7) Agents Will Take Overpriced Listings
(9) More than 50% of Listings Will Feature a Price Reduction Within 30 days
(10) Buyers Will Be More Selective When Choosing an Agent
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